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A quick look around the SEC...and some bowl thoughts
I'm not promising I can keep this blog current each week, but I'm going to give it a shot considering the weekly wrap-up columns don't leave me enough room to touch on other things.
* SEC 2008: Some national pundits are beginning to float the thought that the SEC is having a "down year." Inspection says they're right, depending on where they are looking.
The top of the SEC is as strong as ever: Alabama, Florida and Georgia are all ranked in the BCS top 10 and LSU is having a solid season. The bottom of the SEC is just as dangerous as it is in any season.
The weakness is in the middle. The conferences fifth (Tennessee) and sixth (Auburn) teams this year have both wet the bed up to this point. The SEC's fifth-best team at this point is South Carolina. Coming in at sixth is probably Ole Miss, although Kentucky has a better record. This leads to...
* ...Bowl busters: The SEC has bowl tie-ins with the BCS, the Capital One Bowl, the Outback Bowl, the Cotton, the Chick-fil-A (sorry, chikin, it will always be the Peach to me), the Music City, the Liberty, the Independence and now the Papa John's Bowl in Birmingham. If the SEC puts two teams into the BCS, which is starting to look like more and more of a lock every week, that gives the SEC as many as 10 bowl slots.
Well, here's how many teams are currently guaranteed of the postseason: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky. Six teams.
Tennessee not only won't make it; the Vols hold the dubious distinction of being the first team eliminated from postseason consideration. That leaves five teams to fight for three or four bowl spots. Here they are, and what it would take for them to reach eligibility:
Mississippi State (3-6): To get eligible, State has to win out. That includes beating Alabama and Ole Miss, games where the Bulldogs will be heavy underdogs, and beating a vulnerable Arkansas team. One more loss sinks the ship.
Arkansas (4-6): Arkansas must beat Mississippi State on the road and LSU in a quasi-neutral-site game in Little Rock. The Mississippi State game is a toss-up but LSU should clobber Arkansas.
Vanderbilt (5-4): Vandy gets Kentucky, Tennessee at home and then Wake Forest on the road. Despite Tennessee's struggles, Kentucky is probably still the Commodores' best bet given how the two teams match up physically. The problem with the 'Dores is not physical, however, it's mental. It would not be a surprise to see Vandy lose these three games by a total of 10 points or less and end up home for the holidays.
Auburn (5-5): Georgia and Alabama remain. Auburn must win one of the two to get bowl-eligible. Auburn is a poor matchup physically for Georgia, but Auburn may not be able to take advantage of it. The Alabama game should be close but Alabama should win. If Auburn doesn't beat Georgia this week, it's probably over.
Ole Miss (5-4): Ole Miss has the easiest road. The Rebels host Louisiana-Monroe this week, then close with LSU on the road (they'll lose that one) before finishing with Mississippi State. Look for the Rebels to finish 7-5.
Back to the big bowl picture: Arkansas and Mississippi State can't both be eligible. Each has six losses already and the two face each other. That means, in the best-case scenario, the SEC will fill its bowl allotment with at least one and probably two 6-6 teams. More likely, both Arkansas and Mississippi State will fall short, Auburn will get bounced and Vanderbilt is 50/50 at best. Ole Miss should make it.
That would leave the following scenario:
BCS1 - Alabama (or Florida, but let's dream) vs. the No. 2 team in the country, which I'll project as either Texas Tech or Oklahoma.
BCS2 - Florida in the Sugar, probably against Utah (Urban Meyer's old team), Ohio State or Cincinnati. In other words, one of the worst BCS bowl matchups imaginable unless the Sugar lucks out and catches Ohio State for a rematch of the championship game two years ago, which happens to be the least likely of the three scenarios.
Cap One - Georgia vs. Big 10, most likely the Penn State-Michigan State loser. If it's Michigan State, prepare for a bad showing from the SEC. The Spartans are physical, and Georgia is allergic to physical.
Outback - South Carolina vs. Big 10, most likely Northwestern or Iowa. LSU should actually get this slot but the Outback will take South Carolina for travel purposes, setting up some version of a 27-13 game that the Cocks should win.
Cotton - LSU vs. Big 12, likely Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, maybe Texas Tech. Given how weak LSU's secondary is, this one looks like it could get ugly. The Sooners would be the likely opponent here if Texas Tech doesn't lose. Oklahoma or Tech would probably beat LSU by 20 if the game were being played this weekend, and that's being super-generous. Oklahoma State may be more pretender than contender, though. LSU should hope for a date with the Cowboys.
Chick-fil-A - Kentucky vs. ACC. This one's a doozy. There are literally seven ACC teams in the running for this bowl: FSU, Wake, Maryland, BC, North Carolina, VaTech, Miami and Georgia Tech. Of that list, it's most likely to be Virginia Tech, Wake or Maryland. Meanwhile, Kentucky will be playing in a bowl about five stratospheres above its true abilities. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Wildcats win. They should hope for Wake or Maryland.
Liberty - Ole Miss vs. C-USA champ, which will likely be Tulsa. That will pit Houston Nutt against his former offensive coordinator, Gus Mulzahn, instantly making this the most interesting of any SEC bowl outside the two BCS games. These two teams couldn't be much more different in style than they currently are.
Music City - Vanderbilt vs. ACC. How about that. Vandy has a shot to get bowl-eligible only to find itself driving about 5 miles northeast to play in the Titans' stadium. No one is going to be happy with this arrangement, and if there's a way for the MCB to dump Vandy off on the Independence folks and pick an at-large team instead, I look for it to happen. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of bowl folks, either, than the guys who run the MCB, if you ask me. As for the opponent, take a look at the ACC list above for the Peac...er, Chikin Bowl. I'll bet it ends up being Maryland or Georgia Tech.
Independence - ? vs. ?. Barring a miracle somewhere, the Indy Bowl could very well end up with Louisiana Tech driving down from Ruston to take the SEC's slot, facing a MAC or MWC at-large team taking a Big 12 slot that might also not materialize. The Independence Bowl folks deserve better than this. If Vandy and Auburn both get eligible, you'll see Vanderbilt here and Auburn in the Music City. Opponents? Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green, other random teams from that ilk, or perhaps a repeat performance by Colorado if the Buffaloes can get by either Oklahoma State or Nebraska.
Papa John's - Big East vs. Someone not in the SEC. If there's an SEC team that qualifies for this slot, I won't want to know how.
Check back next week for a mid-major coaching report.
* SEC 2008: Some national pundits are beginning to float the thought that the SEC is having a "down year." Inspection says they're right, depending on where they are looking.
The top of the SEC is as strong as ever: Alabama, Florida and Georgia are all ranked in the BCS top 10 and LSU is having a solid season. The bottom of the SEC is just as dangerous as it is in any season.
The weakness is in the middle. The conferences fifth (Tennessee) and sixth (Auburn) teams this year have both wet the bed up to this point. The SEC's fifth-best team at this point is South Carolina. Coming in at sixth is probably Ole Miss, although Kentucky has a better record. This leads to...
* ...Bowl busters: The SEC has bowl tie-ins with the BCS, the Capital One Bowl, the Outback Bowl, the Cotton, the Chick-fil-A (sorry, chikin, it will always be the Peach to me), the Music City, the Liberty, the Independence and now the Papa John's Bowl in Birmingham. If the SEC puts two teams into the BCS, which is starting to look like more and more of a lock every week, that gives the SEC as many as 10 bowl slots.
Well, here's how many teams are currently guaranteed of the postseason: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky. Six teams.
Tennessee not only won't make it; the Vols hold the dubious distinction of being the first team eliminated from postseason consideration. That leaves five teams to fight for three or four bowl spots. Here they are, and what it would take for them to reach eligibility:
Mississippi State (3-6): To get eligible, State has to win out. That includes beating Alabama and Ole Miss, games where the Bulldogs will be heavy underdogs, and beating a vulnerable Arkansas team. One more loss sinks the ship.
Arkansas (4-6): Arkansas must beat Mississippi State on the road and LSU in a quasi-neutral-site game in Little Rock. The Mississippi State game is a toss-up but LSU should clobber Arkansas.
Vanderbilt (5-4): Vandy gets Kentucky, Tennessee at home and then Wake Forest on the road. Despite Tennessee's struggles, Kentucky is probably still the Commodores' best bet given how the two teams match up physically. The problem with the 'Dores is not physical, however, it's mental. It would not be a surprise to see Vandy lose these three games by a total of 10 points or less and end up home for the holidays.
Auburn (5-5): Georgia and Alabama remain. Auburn must win one of the two to get bowl-eligible. Auburn is a poor matchup physically for Georgia, but Auburn may not be able to take advantage of it. The Alabama game should be close but Alabama should win. If Auburn doesn't beat Georgia this week, it's probably over.
Ole Miss (5-4): Ole Miss has the easiest road. The Rebels host Louisiana-Monroe this week, then close with LSU on the road (they'll lose that one) before finishing with Mississippi State. Look for the Rebels to finish 7-5.
Back to the big bowl picture: Arkansas and Mississippi State can't both be eligible. Each has six losses already and the two face each other. That means, in the best-case scenario, the SEC will fill its bowl allotment with at least one and probably two 6-6 teams. More likely, both Arkansas and Mississippi State will fall short, Auburn will get bounced and Vanderbilt is 50/50 at best. Ole Miss should make it.
That would leave the following scenario:
BCS1 - Alabama (or Florida, but let's dream) vs. the No. 2 team in the country, which I'll project as either Texas Tech or Oklahoma.
BCS2 - Florida in the Sugar, probably against Utah (Urban Meyer's old team), Ohio State or Cincinnati. In other words, one of the worst BCS bowl matchups imaginable unless the Sugar lucks out and catches Ohio State for a rematch of the championship game two years ago, which happens to be the least likely of the three scenarios.
Cap One - Georgia vs. Big 10, most likely the Penn State-Michigan State loser. If it's Michigan State, prepare for a bad showing from the SEC. The Spartans are physical, and Georgia is allergic to physical.
Outback - South Carolina vs. Big 10, most likely Northwestern or Iowa. LSU should actually get this slot but the Outback will take South Carolina for travel purposes, setting up some version of a 27-13 game that the Cocks should win.
Cotton - LSU vs. Big 12, likely Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, maybe Texas Tech. Given how weak LSU's secondary is, this one looks like it could get ugly. The Sooners would be the likely opponent here if Texas Tech doesn't lose. Oklahoma or Tech would probably beat LSU by 20 if the game were being played this weekend, and that's being super-generous. Oklahoma State may be more pretender than contender, though. LSU should hope for a date with the Cowboys.
Chick-fil-A - Kentucky vs. ACC. This one's a doozy. There are literally seven ACC teams in the running for this bowl: FSU, Wake, Maryland, BC, North Carolina, VaTech, Miami and Georgia Tech. Of that list, it's most likely to be Virginia Tech, Wake or Maryland. Meanwhile, Kentucky will be playing in a bowl about five stratospheres above its true abilities. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Wildcats win. They should hope for Wake or Maryland.
Liberty - Ole Miss vs. C-USA champ, which will likely be Tulsa. That will pit Houston Nutt against his former offensive coordinator, Gus Mulzahn, instantly making this the most interesting of any SEC bowl outside the two BCS games. These two teams couldn't be much more different in style than they currently are.
Music City - Vanderbilt vs. ACC. How about that. Vandy has a shot to get bowl-eligible only to find itself driving about 5 miles northeast to play in the Titans' stadium. No one is going to be happy with this arrangement, and if there's a way for the MCB to dump Vandy off on the Independence folks and pick an at-large team instead, I look for it to happen. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of bowl folks, either, than the guys who run the MCB, if you ask me. As for the opponent, take a look at the ACC list above for the Peac...er, Chikin Bowl. I'll bet it ends up being Maryland or Georgia Tech.
Independence - ? vs. ?. Barring a miracle somewhere, the Indy Bowl could very well end up with Louisiana Tech driving down from Ruston to take the SEC's slot, facing a MAC or MWC at-large team taking a Big 12 slot that might also not materialize. The Independence Bowl folks deserve better than this. If Vandy and Auburn both get eligible, you'll see Vanderbilt here and Auburn in the Music City. Opponents? Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green, other random teams from that ilk, or perhaps a repeat performance by Colorado if the Buffaloes can get by either Oklahoma State or Nebraska.
Papa John's - Big East vs. Someone not in the SEC. If there's an SEC team that qualifies for this slot, I won't want to know how.
Check back next week for a mid-major coaching report.
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Too bad, I had hoped to see an SEC team play in Birmingham for the Papa John's bowl. They practically give away tickets to that thing!Posted November 11th, 2008 at 04:06 PM by kausman
