News Article: SEC preview and predictions – Week 9

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 9
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 27, 2009

Last week’s record: 6-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 49-12 (80.3%)

A spotless week gets the Predictions Dept. above the magic .800 number again in 2009. While Alabama sits idle this week, the conference’s slate of games is still attractive, including an intriguing matchup between Alabama’s last two opponents, South Carolina and Tennessee, and Florida’s annual showdown with Georgia.

SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE
As predicted, South Carolina had a tough time with Vanderbilt last week despite being heavily favored in the game. The Gamecocks’ morose performance could theoretically be the aftereffects of USC’s previous game, in which a physical Alabama team took the fight to the Cocks and beat South Carolina physically, 20-6. This week, South Carolina gets Tennessee, which is just coming off its matchup with Alabama – but Tennessee isn’t so battered and bruised. The Volunteers were the ones who controlled most of the pace against the Crimson Tide, so South Carolina won’t have the benefit Vanderbilt had last week. What the Gamecocks might have is an edge emotionally, as Tennessee is likely a little spent following its last-second loss in Tuscaloosa. The problem is, no one knows just how good Tennessee is or isn’t. The first unit has as much talent as anyone, but UT has no depth. South Carolina, meanwhile, is a patchwork outfit whose week-to-week success depends mostly on QB Stephen Garcia. If Tennessee can shut down Garcia, the Vols should win. Tennessee is not a good matchup for South Carolina, but the Gamecocks still have some legitimate goals left to play for. Tennessee is just trying to get bowl-eligible. This one should be close.
South Carolina 20
Tennessee 17

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Georgia is in a dangerous spot here, because it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think the Bulldogs could wind up ineligible for the postseason. A loss here to Florida would make Georgia 4-4, and with games left against Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, a second-half collapse could doom UGA. Florida won an ugly game against Mississippi State last week, but as long as Florida keeps Georgia WR A.J. Green in check, there should be no problem here. This game has been famous in recent years for ending the title hopes of one of the competitors, but these two teams are so imbalanced this year that it’s hard to conceive of a scenario in which Georgia could win. It would have to take an injury to Tim Tebow or some other disaster for it to happen.
Florida 34
Georgia 20

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY
This matchup of two teams that have had surprisingly nice seasons (at least in comparison to the results that were predicted for them) could be the springboard for a postseason run. Mississippi State has the harder road to travel. The Bulldogs get Alabama in three weeks after an off week, a game they are unlikely to win, but then close with Arkansas and Ole Miss, a pair of winnable games. Kentucky’s path is much easier: Beat State, and then a win over either Eastern Kentucky or Vanderbilt puts the Cats in a bowl. Mississippi State played gamely against Florida but came up just short. Kentucky had an easier game against Louisiana-Monroe, but might have lost middle linebacker Micah Johnson to a knee injury. That’s not good news as Kentucky gets set to face an offense that has been surprisingly effective at times in 2009.
Kentucky 23
Mississippi St. 17

GEORGIA TECH at VANDERBILT
The Commodores played gamely against South Carolina, but the Commodores just don’t have an offense of any kind. Meanwhile, even the Commodores’ better-than-expected defense isn’t likely to corral a Georgia Tech rushing attack that is really getting wound up as the season nears an end. This one could get ugly for Vandy.
Georgia Tech 31
Vanderbilt 7

EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARKANSAS
The Razorbacks get a much-needed break as they face a winless and almost completely inept Eastern Michigan squad. The Eagles have the worst rushing defense in the country and are second worst in total offense. Arkansas scoreboard maintenance workers were spotted adding a third digit to the home side of the board this morning.
Arkansas 60
E. Michigan 7

MISSISSIPPI at AUBURN
Auburn jetted out to five wins in a row, but has now lost the last three games. Ole Miss is starting to get things back together after Alabama dismantled them in Oxford a couple of weeks back. Auburn looked slow, as well as out of it mentally against LSU. Auburn is looking for a soft place to land at the moment, and Ole Miss isn’t it. This will be either the best or the second-best defensive line Auburn faces the remainder of the year (depending on what you think about Alabama’s in comparison to it), not to mention a secondary that has played over its head. Add in Ole Miss’ desire to get back into the discussion of being among the top 10-15 teams in the country, and what you have here is a recipe for disaster from a Tiger fan’s perspective. Auburn’s saving grace is that it can match Ole Miss at the skill positions on offense and on special teams, but that’s the end of it. Auburn needs to hope that Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt has one of his signature over-thought gameplanning moments that tend to pop up once or twice a year.
Ole Miss 30
Auburn 20

TULANE at LOUISIANA STATE
The highest in any category that Tulane ranks this season is 54th in pass defense, and then it’s a big step downward to the next number (73rd in passing offense, and there are only 5 categories out of 17 in which the Green Wave isn’t mired in the triple digits). Tulane’s two wins have come over McNeese State and a one-point escape against Army. To be blunt about it, LSU is going to kill them.
LSU 48
Tulane 7

IDLE: Alabama