JessN: Off (week) the top of my head: Notes and musings from behind the desk

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Off (week) the top of my head: Notes and musings from behind the desk
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Oct. 28, 2009

Alabama might get an off-week this week, but I don’t.

The upcoming weekend will afford me to take a closer look at some other teams that I’ve yet to see either only on television, or videotape. And it might actually afford me the opportunity to reintroduce myself to my family.

It also affords me to offer up some notes on recruiting, the bowl picture and the coaching hot seat for next year.

Three straight No. 1 classes?
When Alabama signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation for the 2007-2008 cycle, the overwhelming opinion was that Alabama couldn’t turn the same trick in 2008-2009. Well, Alabama did.

Following that class, the general consensus was that there was no way Alabama could possibly be in contention for a third straight No. 1 class. Get ready to adjust your expectations again, fans.

Alabama currently has 19 players committed, a 20th one on the verge of committing (JUCO CB Mike Harris) and as many as 8 other players waiting in the wings to join the class. Alabama will have to make the numbers fit in some way, but that’s been done the last two years even though plenty of people (mostly rival fans) said it could not be done.

Of those final 8 or 9 players, at least two are grayshirts (Petey Smith and Anthony Orr) from the prior recruiting class, and then there is the issue of DE/DT Brandon Lewis and LB/WR DeVonta Bolton, who went JUCO after not qualifying two years ago. If Alabama adds those four players, plus Harris, it will be tough to shoehorn all the other interested prospects into the mix. Those players include WR/S Keenan Allen, CB John Fulton and LB C.J. Mosley. There are as many as 5-10 others Alabama is thought to be targeting.

In light of the SEC’s new 28-player cap on National Signing Day, what does that mean for Alabama? Some of the solutions are simple – planned grayshirts and/or walk-ons included in the signing class (and whether Alabama’s rivals want to believe it or not, the Tide is such a hot commodity right now that some prospects might choose to pay their own freight) simply won’t submit a letter of intent. The SEC rule governs letters of intent, not the number of bodies that eventually show up with the 105 in August.

Where Alabama’s class eventually ranks is hard to say, but if the Tide manages to close with even three-quarters of the players currently giving Alabama strong consideration, a third straight No. 1 ranking seems imminent. Much more importantly, Alabama will put that much more distance between itself and its chief rivals. Even if Tennessee and Auburn close with better classes than in years past (for Tennessee, it’s a near-certainty; Auburn certainly seems to be closing better as well), Alabama will continue to grow the margin.

In other words, it’s not going to be about whether any given year is “Alabama’s year.” The default setting will be that every year is “Alabama’s year” until something happens to change it. That’s a good place to be.

Mr. Richt, your hot water bottle is waiting…
Unless Rich Brooks finally calls it a career up in Kentucky, or one of the conference’s current coaches decides to seek employment elsewhere, it’s a good bet that there won’t be any turnover in the SEC coaching ranks before the 2010 season (and when Brooks finally does walk away, offensive coordinator Joker Phillips is already set to take the job).

But after 2010? That’s a different story.

Here’s a quick rundown of who could be in trouble then:

· Mark Richt, Georgia. Richt got off to a fast start largely on the strength of an incredible pool of talent he inherited from Jim Donnan. Richt’s best move was to get a handle on a festering discipline problem, something that Donnan never could seem to be bothered with enough to fix. But Richt’s easygoing, almost milquetoast style hasn’t been a good fit for the physical SEC, and despite continuing Donnan’s recruiting successes, Georgia has become almost soft. Georgia could theoretically miss the postseason in 2009, but probably won’t. Either way, Richt is safe for 2010, but may be forced to dismiss some of his longtime defensive assistants. And 2010 just became judgment day.

· Steve Spurrier, South Carolina. Spurrier has likely staved off all talk of his ouster after a 6-2 start in 2009, although South Carolina has no gimme games left and could easily finish 6-6. Were that to happen, Spurrier would likely be asked to do the impossible in 2010 (i.e., win the SEC East as Florida heads into a transition year), or perhaps be gently pushed into retirement. South Carolina believes it can compete with the big boys in the SEC, and is going to go that route whether Spurrier is a part of the discussion or not.

· Gene Chizik, Auburn. Even though Chizik will only be coaching his second season at Auburn in 2010, the fast start he enjoyed in 2009 followed by three losses and the prospect of a potential 6-6 season has some Tiger supporters getting antsy – especially with Nick Saban employing a scorched-earth policy in recruiting across the state. There are issues concerning Auburn’s coaching structure that have yet to shake themselves out – namely, Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and how his status as a rising star relates to Chizik, who was not considered a great coaching prospect when Auburn hired him. It’s too early to say what happens between now and this time next year, but Chizik’s tenure could be a short one if Auburn stumbles out of the gate next year or if Malzahn proves to be the coach who ought to wear the big headset.

· Lane Kiffin, Tennessee. Kiffin figures to get more time than Chizik based on the strength of his recruiting reputation and the presence of Monte Kiffin, who is one of the five or ten best defensive minds in the college game. But the 2010 Tennessee team may be the worst Kiffin will have. Depending on how Tennessee finishes up 2009 – UT will have to beat Memphis, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to get bowl-eligible – the 2010 season could be the third straight for the Vols without a trip to the postseason. Were that to happen, 2011 could get unbearable for Kiffin – especially if he were to keep shooting off his mouth in interviews.


And the job of the year so far goes to…
Just in case you wanted my take on ranking the SEC coaches, here’s how it stands right now.

1. (tie) Urban Meyer, Florida; and Nick Saban, Alabama: Meyer has two national titles, but inherited a talent load at UF. Saban has one national title and has built or rebuilt everywhere he’s been. The next man to win a championship gets No. 1 all to himself.

3. Rich Brooks, Kentucky. Brooks will likely never get the respect he deserves from Southern college football fans, simply because they weren’t familiar with his time at Oregon. Brooks built the Ducks from less than nothing and then handed off a healthy contender to Mike Bellotti. Will he do the same thing with Joker Phillips at Kentucky?

4. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina. He has a national title, but his Fun ‘N’ Gun offense has been figured out for all practical purposes. Still, the strength of his career resume keeps him near the top. But Brooks has run circles around him the last two or three years.

5. Bob Petrino, Arkansas. Offensive genius, but defensively, who knows what he thinks. We do know he’s a hard-liner who can recruit, so Arkansas is about to become a yearly factor in the SEC West, one way or another.

6. Bobby Johnson, Vanderbilt. He’s having a tough year in 2009, but let’s reflect for a moment – Johnson got Vandy to a bowl last year and won it. The last time that happened at Vanderbilt, this country had something called the Apollo Program.

7. Mark Richt, Georgia. If you want to be truthful about things, Richt should be someone’s offensive coordinator. He doesn’t appear to have the “it” factor that most successful coaches have, but he had enough early success at Georgia to avoid being labeled a total bust.

8. Houston Nutt, Ole Miss. Nutt is one of the most criminally overrated coaches in college football. His best years were probably at Boise State, where he built the program before handing it over to Dirk Koetter, thus starting the Legend of the Blue Turf. Since then, however, he has been better known as a master motivator who can’t avoid losing three or four games a year no matter the circumstances. Nutt’s primary failing is his recruiting ability, but he also out-thinks himself as an offensive coordinator.

9. Les Miles, LSU. If Miles wins a second national championship, he’ll have to go up this list. But he basically looks like another Larry Coker or Phil Fulmer, a decent coach who benefited mostly from recruiting, either his own or that of the previous coach. A telling test is to ask LSU fans whether – if they had to hire a new coach tomorrow – they would hire Miles or look elsewhere.

10. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State. I put him here only because his first season isn’t over, but he’s clearly performed the best of the three new coaches in the SEC. State was supposed to be terrible, but has been surprisingly competitive. MSU could feasibly get bowl-eligible, and no one thought that was possible in the preseason. If the Bulldogs go to a bowl game, Mullen should get some Coach of the Year votes.

11. (tie) Lane Kiffin, Tennessee; and Gene Chizik, Auburn. Tennessee is improving while Auburn is stagnant at the moment, so Kiffin would figure to have the edge, but neither guy has set the woods afire with his coaching acumen and both have made missteps. We’ll leave it at that until the season is done.

An early bowl look
It’s really too early to be thinking about this, but here’s a primer on the SEC bowl outlook.

Assuming Alabama and Florida both get to the SEC Championship Game undefeated, both will make BCS bowls. The winner would get the BCS Championship Game while the loser would get the Sugar Bowl. In fact, this scenario probably plays out even if the loser ends up a two-loss team (such as if LSU were to beat Alabama, get back to Atlanta for a rematch with the Gators and then lose again). There are other scenarios, too (a one-loss Alabama team sits at home while LSU goes to Atlanta via the tiebreaker), but just know that the SEC has about a 75 percent chance of getting two teams into the BCS.

Here’s an early projection:

BCS Championship Game: Alabama/Florida winner vs. Texas
This game has all sorts of possibilities coming up the other side. First, there is Texas, but the Longhorns have looked just as vulnerable as Alabama and Florida, and the Big 12 isn’t an easy trip. If Texas loses, that’s when the fun starts. If Iowa manages to beat Ohio State and Minnesota down the stretch, the Hawkeyes would be undefeated for the first time in school history and would likely get into this game. If Iowa were to lose, the Oregon-USC winner could land here, or so could TCU or even Boise State. And unless there’s a hidden rule preventing this scenario, consider this one: LSU beats Alabama, and Alabama wins out. Florida then beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Oregon tops USC but doesn’t jump Alabama, while Boise State, Iowa, Cincinnati and TCU all lose. Could Florida face Alabama in this game rather than in Atlanta? Stay tuned.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama/Florida loser vs. Cincinnati
This one would be about as exciting for sponsors as last year’s Alabama-Utah debacle. It would surprise no one for Alabama to also lose this game if the Tide also lost to Florida in the SEC title match, due to the letdown factor.

Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Ohio State hasn’t fared well against strong, fast SEC teams in recent years – and that’s certainly what LSU is.

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Penn State
Spurrier vs. Joe Paterno? A nice matchup, but the Gamecocks won’t think so after they see the Nittany Lion defense. This would be a mismatch heavily in favor of the Big Ten.

Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State
This game would provide a fairly intriguing matchup of SEC defense against one of the Big 12’s most potent offenses. Ole Miss has been tough in this particular game in recent years and a Rebel win would surprise no one.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech
The Hokies have already played here once in 2009, opening the season with Alabama. A return trip would probably prove to be more fruitful for the Hokies, who would be facing a Georgia team that is nowhere near as good as Alabama. But this is where the fun really starts, as Georgia is not guaranteed to even make a bowl in the first place.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Houston
The Cougars have already beaten one SEC team this year (Mississippi State). Given the amount of points these two teams put up in most weeks, this could be the first two-day bowl game in Division-IA history.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Florida State
Guess which of these two teams is less likely to get bowl-eligible? Yep, Florida State. The Seminoles will be fortunate to get to six wins in 2009, but if they do, once in this game it’s hard to see how Kentucky would be able to keep pace with them.

Independence Bowl: Auburn vs. Iowa State
This is a little bit of a stretch given that Iowa State would have to upset either Colorado (the Buffaloes still have more athletes and more depth, despite their record) or Texas A&M to get into this game, but if they did, look for the Independence to go after Auburn in order to set up a rematch of Gene Chizik vs. Iowa State, which of course is coached by Auburn’s 2008 defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads. Some Auburn supporters have toyed with the idea of declining an invitation to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham, but if the alternative is a matchup against Iowa State in Shreveport, Auburn might actually angle for the PJB in order to skip this nightmare.

Papajohns.com Bowl: Tennessee vs. Rutgers
If UT ends up here, yet another Tennessee head coach will have to run the Legion Field gauntlet. It’s hard to say who’d be favored in this game, but one thing’s for sure: No one would care either way.