News Article: LSU preview: Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game

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LSU preview: Battle for SEC West supremacy comes down to this game
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 2, 2009

There’s no other way to put this, no way to soften the impact: This is as much a must-win game for Alabama as there has ever been.

If Alabama wants to win a national championship in 2009, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to hold over LSU’s head in recruiting the supremacy of Nick Saban versus Les Miles, this game must be won. If Alabama wants to avenge its 2008 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, this game must be won.

Of course, LSU could give it all right back to Alabama in the end. The Tigers don’t have much of an offense in 2009, and they are still yet to play Arkansas, a team that has become a major thorn in the Tigers’ paws recently and a team that very much does have an offense. In Alabama, LSU gets its mirror image – tough defense, inexperienced quarterback, an offense that tilts heavily towards the run and good special teams.

In Alabama’s favor is the fact the Tide has been stifling against the run in 2009, and Nick Saban has a good track record for scheming against John Chavis-coached defenses. Still, this game will be electric from kickoff to final horn, and the loser of this game – particularly if it’s Alabama – will likely be an odd man out once the postseason draw comes around.

OFFENSE

Both teams make heavy use of one-back sets and the pistol formation, but LSU has better athleticism at the quarterback position. LSU’s Gary Crowton and Alabama’s Jim McElwain are from the same basic offensive school, and both have reputations as savvy playcallers. Coincidentally, both men have taken some heat in 2009 from fans for what is perceived as curious playcalling in some situations. Both teams use multiple formations as a way to confuse defenses and execute basic plays.

QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s Greg McElroy started 2009 as one of the hottest hands in the conference. In fact, after Week 4, McElroy was even getting some traction as a Heisman Trophy candidate. That talk ended rather quickly after a string of mediocre games that finally ended two weeks ago against Tennessee. LSU’s Jordan Jefferson has quietly put up very good numbers for a first-year starter. He has thrown for slightly less yardage than McElroy, but has a better completion percentage and more touchdowns. Jefferson is also a better runner than McElroy, although he hasn’t put up truly eye-popping numbers on the ground, rushing for just 143 yards on 77 carries (1.9 avg.) and 1 touchdown. Those numbers are similar to McElroy’s in terms of average yardage per carry. Were it just a comparison of starters, McElroy would probably get the nod due to his more advanced ability to work through progressions and find secondary receivers. Add the bench into the equation, however, and this matchup gets a lot closer. LSU’s Jarrett Lee was his team’s starter in 2008, but has played sparingly in 2009. Alabama counters with Star Jackson and Thomas Darrah, both of whom have played about as much as Lee this year. Jackson has better numbers than Lee, but Darrah ran the second team in warm-ups for the Tennessee game, and given how close those two were coming out of fall camp, it could mean Darrah has against caught Jackson on the depth chart. Regardless, this is the closest comparison on the board. We’ll score it for Alabama simply based off a touch more consistency. The depth advantage LSU enjoys fades a bit when Lee’s struggles in past SEC games are taken into consideration. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Alabama’s Mark Ingram has carried 153 times for 1,004 yards (6.6 avg.) and 8 touchdowns this year. Those numbers are better than both Charles Scott and Keiland Williams for LSU combined. Scott has carried 103 times for 459 yards (4.5 avg.) and 4 touchdowns, while Williams has tripped it 44 times for 212 yards (4.8 avg.) and 2 touchdowns. The other issue has been that Scott and Williams simply haven’t been all that effective in key situations a startlingly high amount of the time. The wild card for LSU is Russell Shepard, who has carried 28 times for 225 yards (8.0 avg.) and 2 touchdowns, and has consistently put up big runs in nearly every game he’s carried the ball. Shepard is also considered potentially the team’s quarterback of the future, and while he has yet to attempt a pass in 2009, the potential is there. Alabama backs up Ingram with Trent Richardson (74 carries, 377 yards, 5.1 avg., 4 TD) and Roy Upchurch (17 carries, 144 yards, 8.5 avg., 1 TD). Terry Grant (40 carries, 166 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TD) adds depth. Both teams have fullbacks on the roster in name only. For LSU, it’s converted lineman Richard Dugas, backed up by sophomore James Stampley. Neither has touched the ball this year. Alabama uses Baron Huber when it needs a short-yardage blocker; he has 1 catch for 4 yards. Scott and Williams should be the league’s best running back tandem, but it hasn’t worked out that way. And Ingram is now a Heisman candidate. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Alabama has started to go to Julio Jones more in recent weeks, but the results have been mixed. Jones has done well on short receptions but has had trouble getting open on longer passes. His only long touchdown catch came on a gimmick play out of the Wildcat formation. The problem in recent weeks has been the inability of Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks to get open with any consistency. Maze has also been somewhat dinged up. Earl Alexander, Mike McCoy, Michael Bowman and Brandon Gibson add depth to the mix. The real issue now for Alabama is the health of tight end Colin Peek. Peek is 50-50 at best for this game; if he plays, he’s the best tight end in the SEC. Otherwise, Alabama could be in trouble. Alabama starts two tight ends in its base formation, with Preston Dial taking on the H-back duties. If Peek can’t go, freshman Michael Williams – a good blocker but below-average receiver – will have to step up. Brad Smelley will back up Dial, and Chris Underwood would step in to spell Williams. Baron Huber would also see time. LSU counters with a tremendous 1-2 punch in the form of Brandon LaFell (37 catches, 478 yards, 12.9 avg., 8 TD) and Terrance Toliver (38 catches, 501 yards, 13.2 avg., 3 TD). Ruben Randle and R.J. Jackson add depth, while Trindon Holliday will play in the slot and as a scatback out of the backfield. Tight end Richard Dickson is an accomplished blocker and will probably catch a pass or two, but he’s not likely to kill Alabama as a receiver. This category was somewhat close prior to Peek’s injury, but if Peek is even slowed substantially (which he will be even if he plays), then LSU gets the nod. Advantage: LSU

OFFENSIVE LINE
The Tigers have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Ciron Black is the SEC’s only true rock star left tackle, and he’ll get plenty of help on that side from Josh Dworaczyk. On the right side, underrated guard Lyle Hitt teams with tackle Joe Barksdale. T-Bob Hebert gets the call at center. The only question is depth. LSU’s entire second team is comprised of freshmen and sophomores, with no real standouts. Alabama counters with William Vlachos at center, flanked by guards Mike Johnson and Barrett Jones and tackles James Carpenter and Drew Davis. Like LSU, Alabama’s left side is its strongest. Alabama’s depth is superior, but LSU’s tackles pass protect better, and Hitt is a much better right guard than Jones is at this point. The issue for LSU has been pass protection from the interior. While Alabama leads the conference in sacks allowed, LSU is dead last in the conference in that stat, and 101st overall in the country. Part of it is due to Jordan Jefferson’s inexperience in reading complex defenses, and thus being a fixture in the pocket too long. It’s a close call, but the presence of Black and Barksdale at the tackle positions give LSU a slim edge. Advantage: LSU

DEFENSE

John Chavis’ 4-3 scheme is predicated on pressuring the quarterback and not giving up the big play. To that end, LSU has done well. The Tigers are ranked 15th in total defense, 24th in pass defense and 19th in pass efficiency defense. But the Tigers are just 35th against the run, not up to their recent standards, and rank 91st in sacks. Alabama, meanwhile, has one of the best, if not the best defense in the country. The Crimson Tide ranks 4th in total defense, 2nd against the run and 20th against the pass. Alabama is tied with Florida for the conference lead in sacks, and leads the league in tackles for loss. Alabama will utilize a 3-4 over-under scheme that allows the coaches to take a lot of chances with their blitz packages.

DEFENSIVE LINE
LSU came into the year replacing three starters on the defensive line, and the results have been pretty much exactly what you’d expect. LSU’s defensive ends, Rahim Alem and Lazarius Levingston, are undersized and that has hurt LSU’s ability to contain the rushing attacks from the outside. Alem in particular has underachieved. He has just 3 sacks on the year after coming into the season as one of the league’s most feared part-time pass rushers from a year ago. The increased responsibilities of being an every-down player have obviously hurt. Inside, Charles Alexander and Al Woods are top-flight tackles, but the depth situation isn’t what LSU is accustomed to. Drake Nevis is a bit on the small side, while Lavar Edwards has been forced to play in sometimes despite being a true end. Josh Downs adds depth. Tyler Edwards and Chancey Aghayere bolster the end positions. Alabama counters with one of the best lines in the business. Terrence Cody holds down the fort at nosetackle, while Lorenzo Washington, Brandon Deaderick, Luther Davis and Marcell Dareus rotate at the end slots. Josh Chapman and Kerry Murphy will back up Cody. LSU has good athletes and this will be the best line Alabama will face the rest of the way, save for a potential matchup with Florida, but Alabama is more experienced, deeper and has been clearly more effective. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
LSU brings a lot of experience to the table in the form of Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, Harry Coleman and top sub Jacob Cutrera, but each player has his shortcomings. Riley is probably the most complete player, but pure speed is an issue. Lateral mobility is a question for Cutrera. Coleman and Sheppard are fast enough, but Coleman lacks bulk. Still, all but Sheppard are seniors. Ryan Baker and Ace Foyil provide depth. Alabama counters with Rolando McClain and Nico Johnson in the middle, Cory Reamer outside and Eryk Anders at the Jack linebacker position. Johnson has come along nicely since taking over for the injured Dont'a Hightower, while Reamer has become a force against the run. McClain is simply the best linebacker in the SEC at any position. Anders’ ability to rush the passer off the corner has dealt fits to most of the Tide’s opponents so far. LSU probably has a better combination of experience and raw athletic ability now that Hightower is out, but again, the production numbers favor Alabama. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
LSU has an embarrassment of depth and athletic ability. Safeties Brandon Taylor, Danny McCray and Chad Jones and cornerbacks Patrick Peterson, Chris Hawkins and Jai Eugene have all proven to be game-changers at one point or another in their careers. Throw in Karnell Hatcher and Ron Brooks for good measure and the Tigers don’t have a weakness. Small wonder why Phelon Jones decided to transfer to Alabama. The Crimson Tide, though, has actually bested LSU in pass defense stats, but that’s probably due to the Tide’s superior defensive line and pressure on the quarterback. Kareem Jackson, Marquis Johnson and Javier Arenas are an outstanding cornerback trio, while Mark Barron, Robby Green and Justin Woodall patrol the field at safety. Tyrone King Jr. and Ali Sharrief are also available at safety, with Dre Kirkpatrick and Chris Rogers providing depth at corner. LSU holds the depth advantage at safety, and a slight edge in overall talent at corner despite depth being a push. This is a close call, but the presence of Peterson – the league’s best corner – pushing this one the Tigers’ way. Advantage: LSU

SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s surprising that, even with Trindon Holliday onboard, LSU has struggled in the return game in 2009. The Tigers lead the league in punt returns and are 6th nationally in that stat, but kickoff returns have been a dismal 117th. Nothing like playing Alabama to improve those numbers, however, given that the Tide is atrocious on kickoff coverage. Alabama’s Javier Arenas helps Alabama rank 2nd in punt returns, and the Tide is 41st in kickoff returns, still nothing to write home about but better than LSU’s numbers. As for the kicking game, Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin is in the middle of a career year, going 20-of-23 (87.0%) so far on field goals, including 3-for-4 from beyond 40 yards. But LSU’s Josh Jasper is right on his heels, hitting 10 of 13 this year. Punting has been a different story altogether. Alabama’s P.J. Fitzgerald has had a solid year punting the ball, although he’s been ineffective at killing kicks inside the 20. LSU has worked three punters – Jasper, Derek Helton and Drew Alleman. Although their gross average has been under 40 yards, LSU is still better in net punting than Alabama – by a long shot, in fact – due to better rates of killing the ball inside the 20, as well as better punt coverage. Alabama probably holds the edge in terms of the kickers themselves, but everything else about this category points to LSU. Advantage: LSU

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, as does LSU. But the deciding factor in this game will be up front, and in that regard, Alabama wins both OL-DL cross-matchups.

The key for Alabama in this game is to establish supremacy in the running game. Alabama has run the ball effectively in 2009, but not when it absolutely needed to – and that’s key, because Alabama’s passing game has been stuck in reverse for a month. Whether Alabama gets there on the shoulders of Mark Ingram, or by continuing to work the Wildcat formation, it doesn’t matter: What matters is that Alabama takes control of this game on the ground.

LSU figures to stack the box and force Greg McElroy to beat them over the top. Even with LSU’s fine defensive backs figured into the equation, if McElroy is throwing against one-on-one coverage all day, LSU can be beaten. It all depends on whether Alabama can establish something in the running game first that forces LSU to bring its safeties up to stop the run.

Defensively, Alabama can force Jordan Jefferson to make mistakes, or at least miss reads. The Tide defensive backs will have their hands full with the best starting receiver tandem they’ve seen this year.

Look for a low-scoring defensive struggle, but if the analysis of the OL-vs.-DL matchups are correct, Alabama should come out on top.

Alabama 16
LSU 13