There have been a few times that I saw the 1978 Alabama schedule used as an example of great scheduling. I'm inclined to agree, but perhaps not entirely for the same reason as some other people. The 1978 schedule appears artfully crafted, to both give the team breaks from the difficult schedule and impress voters. It is a testament to the greatness of that 1978 team that Alabama won a championship (split, the tough opening stretch caught up to them). It is one of the toughest championship seasons ever, but I believe it is easy to make the mistake of romanticized seasons like this while failing to appreciate what the modern Alabama teams are accomplishing.
I do not believe the 1978 Alabama team played the toughest schedule of any Alabama championship team. I also believe that the 1978 schedule looks better in contrast to current Alabama schedules at first glance than it actually is. The strength of schedule for the 2015 Alabama season was ranked #1 by Sagarin, so we know it was the best of the 2015 season (it's rare to have the highest SoS and win a title) but comparing it to 1978 requires more than just citing that statistic. I am going to contrast the 1978 Alabama schedule with the 2015 Alabama schedule, which I do believe is the toughest season any championship team has played.
The 1978 schedule is a great schedule. The out of conference games are Nebraska, Missouri, USC, Washington, Virginia Tech, and Penn State. How can I even say the 2015 schedule was more difficult? In 1978 the scholarship limit was 95. This was the first year of the 95 limit, going from a limit of 105 so I suspect that this was well managed much in the same way a team on the first year of scholarship reductions can field a very good team (by retaining most of their veteran players). Either way, Bear Bryant had 12 games to manage with 95 scholarship players. This comes out to 7.91 scholarship players per game. This would be like Alabama having 118 scholarship players to play 15 games. We can debate the quality of depth or relevance, but Bear Bryant had more available depth.
The SEC as a whole has improved. In 1978 there were only three teams with winning conference records! Alabama did not play Georgia, which makes Auburn the only team with a winning SEC record that they played. Florida was 4-7 and had not yet emerged as a football power, Tennessee was 5-5, Miss. State was 6-5 (with wins over West Texas A&M, North Texas State, and Memphis State) and Vanderbilt was 2-9, the powerful top to bottom conference we would eventually see had not yet emerged. Half of the SEC teams in 1978 had overall records at or below .500. In 2015 only 4 of 14 SEC teams fell below .500, all 4 of those teams coming from the SEC East.
Something I didn't notice until I started taking a closer look at this schedule, was the time between games. This shows a carefully crafted schedule that while commendable, simply isn't possible anymore. Alabama's 12 games in 1978 occurred from September 2 to January 1. Alabama's 15 games in 2015 occurred from September 5 to January 11. That means 2015 Alabama had one week to play 3 more games, with I shall repeat 10 less scholarship players. This isn't random though, 1978 Alabama opened with Nebraska on September 2, then didn't play Missouri until the September 16 (in keeping with the notion it takes longer than one week to recover from playing Nebraska). They didn't have any time between Missouri and USC, making it their toughest consecutive games without additional rest, but also Alabama's only loss of the year! Alabama also had a substantial gap between the LSU game and Auburn game (November 11 to December 2) giving them another long rest period.
Virginia Tech was the homecoming opponent and on a ten year bowl game drought. Once you look at the schedule closely what you see is three very tough opening games, three difficult games at the end with much more manageable games in between. An extremely difficult schedule, no doubt, but one in which the depth and additional rest Alabama had available made it more manageable.
Rest and depth aside doesn't the 1978 schedule still seem better? Well, I'll just disregard the FCS opponent and pretend it is a bye week. Though it's still easier to play bye, that's somewhat of the purpose of the FCS game. Now we have 12 opponents to compare to 14. I thought about going head to head, but that would take a while and it's hard to compensate for the 2 other opponents. Instead, I'll just compare total records (I was doing this on my own when I remembered ALA2262 had already done it). In 1978 the 12 Alabama opponents had a total record of 82-54 for a winning percentage of .602. In 2015 the 14 Alabama opponents had a total record of 125-60 for a winning percentage of .676. I found it surprising that the 2015 Alabama opponents had 43 more wins and just 6 more losses. If you imagine that 43-6 record as 3 additional opponents, it's like Alabama playing 3 more teams with 14-2 records!
Yes, name recognition is higher with the 1978 schedule but that's only a superficial aspect of a schedule. As I noted a couple of those teams had not yet emerged as football powers, so they were relatively easy opponents at the time. The SEC as a whole had not yet matured, making the heart of the SEC schedule much more comparable to what it's like to play through the heart of another Power 5 conference schedule. To give the 1978 schedule due credit, yes Nebraska, Missouri, USC, LSU and Penn State might have been more difficult than Wisconsin, Georgia, LSU, Michigan State and Clemson, but the 1978 schedule has no answer for Ole Miss, Miss. State, and Florida. Alabama played 11 top 30 teams in 2015 (according to Sagarin). The 12 game 1978 schedule has no answer for that either. There has never been anything like the SEC West which now exists after Texas A&M joined the SEC.
Alabama played more teams with better winning percentages, had less rest, and less scholarship players in 2015 than in 1978.
Finally, I'd like to acknowledge and praise what the 2015 Alabama football team accomplished. I can not find a real comparison for what they accomplished. That's why I wanted to take a closer look at 1978, to see how they stacked up. I have to conclude that Alabama faced more difficulty in 2015 and as long as they play in this iteration of the SEC West they will continue to face extremely high SoS. It is also worth repeating that despite the impressive schedule, Alabama only won a split title in 1978. They'd have been better off without USC on the schedule, playing them during a brutal stretch did them no favors. That aside, I don't think making schedules like the 1978 one are really feasible anymore. For instance, in 1978 Alabama only played 6 SEC games. Things have changed too much.
Also, if I've made any statistical errors I'd appreciate being corrected.
Schedules:
1978 Alabama Football Schedule
Sept. 2 Nebraska
Sept. 16 Missouri
Sept. 23 USC
Sept. 30 Vanderbilt
Oct. 7 Washington
Oct. 14 Florida
Oct. 21 Tennessee
Oct. 28 Virginia Tech
Nov. 4 Mississippi State
Nov. 11 LSU
Dec. 2 Auburn
Jan. 1 Penn State
2015 Alabama Football Schedule
Sept. 5 Wisconsin
Sept. 12 Middle Tennessee
Sept. 19 Ole Miss
Sept. 26 Louisiana-Monroe
Oct. 3 Georgia
Oct. 10 Arkansas
Oct. 17 Texas A&M
Oct. 24 Tennessee
Nov. 7 LSU
Nov. 14 Mississippi State
Nov. 21 Charleston Southern
Nov. 28 Auburn
Dec. 5 Florida
Dec. 31 Michigan State
Jan. 11 Clemson
I do not believe the 1978 Alabama team played the toughest schedule of any Alabama championship team. I also believe that the 1978 schedule looks better in contrast to current Alabama schedules at first glance than it actually is. The strength of schedule for the 2015 Alabama season was ranked #1 by Sagarin, so we know it was the best of the 2015 season (it's rare to have the highest SoS and win a title) but comparing it to 1978 requires more than just citing that statistic. I am going to contrast the 1978 Alabama schedule with the 2015 Alabama schedule, which I do believe is the toughest season any championship team has played.
The 1978 schedule is a great schedule. The out of conference games are Nebraska, Missouri, USC, Washington, Virginia Tech, and Penn State. How can I even say the 2015 schedule was more difficult? In 1978 the scholarship limit was 95. This was the first year of the 95 limit, going from a limit of 105 so I suspect that this was well managed much in the same way a team on the first year of scholarship reductions can field a very good team (by retaining most of their veteran players). Either way, Bear Bryant had 12 games to manage with 95 scholarship players. This comes out to 7.91 scholarship players per game. This would be like Alabama having 118 scholarship players to play 15 games. We can debate the quality of depth or relevance, but Bear Bryant had more available depth.
The SEC as a whole has improved. In 1978 there were only three teams with winning conference records! Alabama did not play Georgia, which makes Auburn the only team with a winning SEC record that they played. Florida was 4-7 and had not yet emerged as a football power, Tennessee was 5-5, Miss. State was 6-5 (with wins over West Texas A&M, North Texas State, and Memphis State) and Vanderbilt was 2-9, the powerful top to bottom conference we would eventually see had not yet emerged. Half of the SEC teams in 1978 had overall records at or below .500. In 2015 only 4 of 14 SEC teams fell below .500, all 4 of those teams coming from the SEC East.
Something I didn't notice until I started taking a closer look at this schedule, was the time between games. This shows a carefully crafted schedule that while commendable, simply isn't possible anymore. Alabama's 12 games in 1978 occurred from September 2 to January 1. Alabama's 15 games in 2015 occurred from September 5 to January 11. That means 2015 Alabama had one week to play 3 more games, with I shall repeat 10 less scholarship players. This isn't random though, 1978 Alabama opened with Nebraska on September 2, then didn't play Missouri until the September 16 (in keeping with the notion it takes longer than one week to recover from playing Nebraska). They didn't have any time between Missouri and USC, making it their toughest consecutive games without additional rest, but also Alabama's only loss of the year! Alabama also had a substantial gap between the LSU game and Auburn game (November 11 to December 2) giving them another long rest period.
Virginia Tech was the homecoming opponent and on a ten year bowl game drought. Once you look at the schedule closely what you see is three very tough opening games, three difficult games at the end with much more manageable games in between. An extremely difficult schedule, no doubt, but one in which the depth and additional rest Alabama had available made it more manageable.
Rest and depth aside doesn't the 1978 schedule still seem better? Well, I'll just disregard the FCS opponent and pretend it is a bye week. Though it's still easier to play bye, that's somewhat of the purpose of the FCS game. Now we have 12 opponents to compare to 14. I thought about going head to head, but that would take a while and it's hard to compensate for the 2 other opponents. Instead, I'll just compare total records (I was doing this on my own when I remembered ALA2262 had already done it). In 1978 the 12 Alabama opponents had a total record of 82-54 for a winning percentage of .602. In 2015 the 14 Alabama opponents had a total record of 125-60 for a winning percentage of .676. I found it surprising that the 2015 Alabama opponents had 43 more wins and just 6 more losses. If you imagine that 43-6 record as 3 additional opponents, it's like Alabama playing 3 more teams with 14-2 records!
Yes, name recognition is higher with the 1978 schedule but that's only a superficial aspect of a schedule. As I noted a couple of those teams had not yet emerged as football powers, so they were relatively easy opponents at the time. The SEC as a whole had not yet matured, making the heart of the SEC schedule much more comparable to what it's like to play through the heart of another Power 5 conference schedule. To give the 1978 schedule due credit, yes Nebraska, Missouri, USC, LSU and Penn State might have been more difficult than Wisconsin, Georgia, LSU, Michigan State and Clemson, but the 1978 schedule has no answer for Ole Miss, Miss. State, and Florida. Alabama played 11 top 30 teams in 2015 (according to Sagarin). The 12 game 1978 schedule has no answer for that either. There has never been anything like the SEC West which now exists after Texas A&M joined the SEC.
Alabama played more teams with better winning percentages, had less rest, and less scholarship players in 2015 than in 1978.
Finally, I'd like to acknowledge and praise what the 2015 Alabama football team accomplished. I can not find a real comparison for what they accomplished. That's why I wanted to take a closer look at 1978, to see how they stacked up. I have to conclude that Alabama faced more difficulty in 2015 and as long as they play in this iteration of the SEC West they will continue to face extremely high SoS. It is also worth repeating that despite the impressive schedule, Alabama only won a split title in 1978. They'd have been better off without USC on the schedule, playing them during a brutal stretch did them no favors. That aside, I don't think making schedules like the 1978 one are really feasible anymore. For instance, in 1978 Alabama only played 6 SEC games. Things have changed too much.
Also, if I've made any statistical errors I'd appreciate being corrected.
Schedules:
1978 Alabama Football Schedule
Sept. 2 Nebraska
Sept. 16 Missouri
Sept. 23 USC
Sept. 30 Vanderbilt
Oct. 7 Washington
Oct. 14 Florida
Oct. 21 Tennessee
Oct. 28 Virginia Tech
Nov. 4 Mississippi State
Nov. 11 LSU
Dec. 2 Auburn
Jan. 1 Penn State
2015 Alabama Football Schedule
Sept. 5 Wisconsin
Sept. 12 Middle Tennessee
Sept. 19 Ole Miss
Sept. 26 Louisiana-Monroe
Oct. 3 Georgia
Oct. 10 Arkansas
Oct. 17 Texas A&M
Oct. 24 Tennessee
Nov. 7 LSU
Nov. 14 Mississippi State
Nov. 21 Charleston Southern
Nov. 28 Auburn
Dec. 5 Florida
Dec. 31 Michigan State
Jan. 11 Clemson
