Going deep: What the numbers show about Tide QB Jalen Hurts

[JustNeedMe81]

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I debated whether I should put it in Hurt Thread that I started the other day, but I feel like this may be slightly different discussion, but If it needs to be merged to the other thread, please feel free to do so.

Numbers compiled by Pro Football Focus tell a different story. So far this season, Hurts has completed only three of 13 pass attempts of 20 or more air yards. One of them was the 39-yard touchdown strike he delivered to ArDarius Stewart in the 52-6 victory over USC that doubled as Alabama's first score of the season. That ball appeared to be underthrown.

A closer look at Jalen Hurts' accuracy at all levels this season with aimed passes*:
20+ air yards: 3 for 13 for 110 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.
10-19 air yards: 4 for 6 for 137 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
0-9 air yards: 9 for 11 for 62 yards with one touchdown and no interception.
Minus yards (screens): 13 for 13 for 96 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions

I feel like the article is somewhat misleading, because there has been several passes that was slightly off the targets, receivers dropping the ball often and etc. I feel like we witnessed Coker dealing with that where he finally connected on a deep ball in a game against Arkansas or Georgia, I can't remember and then he went on a run where he was firing on all cylinder. Hurts is probably going to get real hot, the question is when and where.

 

[rgw]

We'll know a lot more after this weekend. Maybe not the best secondary he'll face but they will put pressure on him and probably force some high-leverage situations (3rd and long, backed up field position, etc).

 

[Sabanizer]

We'll know a lot more after this weekend. Maybe not the best secondary he'll face but they will put pressure on him and probably force some high-leverage situations (3rd and long, backed up field position, etc).

After thought, I believe the quarterback battle will still be in play considering how Jalen performs. I predict he will make it through this test, which will be much more of a challenge than the first two games. No way coach Saban is going to lose this game. I hope we can keep their defense honest.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Actually, his long distance accuracy isn't as good. But, I think it's because he takes sooooo long to throw the deep pass.....that the timing is off.....

It's not arm strength -- he's just waiting too long.

 

[rgw]

Saban has intimated as much about the passing game. When the time comes that the game slows down for Jalen is the big thing. If it happens this weekend, it would be sooner than I expect but nonetheless happy for it.

 

[Snuffy Smith]

Actually, his long distance accuracy isn't as good. But, I think it's because he takes sooooo long to throw the deep pass.....that the timing is off.....

It's not arm strength -- he's just waiting too long.

Its called throwing the receiver open. McCarron & Sims had it, Coker developed it. It comes with the confidence to throw the ball before the receiver is clear if the defender knowing he will be there


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[B1GTide]

Harsh reality, he has to fix this or it will undermine Kiffin's offense.

 

[drwho]

Harsh reality, he has to fix this or it will undermine Kiffin's offense.

Yep.

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[rgw]

Completing about 1/3 of your deep passes (20+ in the air throws) is usually passable. It only takes a handful of those throws connecting to change an entire game most days.

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

Lots of drops have hurt Hurts. On top of that penalties haven't exactly helped either.


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[KrAzY3]

While we have seen plenty of just misses, that number certainly seems skewed. For instance, I can't really recall any mind blowing, I can't believe he made that type catches so Jalen's deep passes are not really inflated by catches that shouldn't have have been. On the other hand, just examine the throw to Dieter drop. It was very well thrown, but I mean drops happen right? Not really, Dieter doesn't drop passes, as in he's one of the best in all of college football at not dropping passes. Just that drop alone changes it to 4/13. We all know though that it could easily be 5/14 or even 6/15. There's no huge problem there, although he might never have the touch on the deep pass that Blake Sims had for example.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Completing about 1/3 of your deep passes (20+ in the air throws) is usually passable. It only takes a handful of those throws connecting to change an entire game most days.

Correct. It doesn't take connecting on five or six deep balls to impact the game. At minimum, you connect on one and it makes the defense do something different immediately.

 

[uaintn]

At least one I recall came back because of a penalty.... I do think it looks like he really winds himself up on the deep throws. I expect the game is still moving pretty fast for him. As it slows down, and he trusts the routes a little more, he'll start to connect on more of these.

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

I think that will be cleared up.


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[rgw]

I have no concerns about his ability to get it out to a deep receiver. I'm a bit worried about his tendency to just throw ropes with minimal or no touch...those are imminently intercept-able against conference opponents. It is great to see a guy behind center who is capable of making deep outs and comebacks like an NFL QB. That is a rare talent for a college quarterback and frankly we haven't had many of those guys here. It is also a great thing to see when he rifles a short pass in the right spot to give the receiver an honest chance to make a move. We kinda lacked that at times last season.

I suspect that we're going to RPO the crap out of Ole Miss this week. Give him basically a triple option where he only throws it deep if he knows the guy is wide open or is able to extend the roll out action long enough to flip it to the receiver like we've seen against us in the past. What I've seen from him in more traditional dropbacks indicates he may be a bit of a turnover risk against Ole Miss going that route.

The longterm goal is to smooth out the regular pro-style spread passing but as long as we don't self-inflict a big deficit like last year then I imagine we're going to try to splash play on them.

 

[Sabanizer]

I have no concerns about his ability to get it out to a deep receiver. I'm a bit worried about his tendency to just throw ropes with minimal or no touch...

Not knowing a qb'S expected velocity throwing you a pass will lead to more drops......misreads. It is just a matter of the receivers getting used to the QB, as long as he is consistent. Someone minimized Coker earlier, and yes he migh not be as talented, but after a few games the receivers knew his touch. I hope and expect the same from Jalen. Anyone that believes Jalen is better than Coker LSU on is mistaken. A senior vs a TF at season's end. It is timing. For instance the Barnett pass to Ridley was off because of timing.

 

[rgw]

I don't think he's better than late season Coker at all. He is probably about where I thought Coker was through 2 games though...In terms of feeling out what is he best at and how we can best maximize everyone else around him The best thing about Kiffin is he seems to tinker the offensive approach once he knows what the QB can do. He actually kinda demphasized the screen game compared to 2014 because that wasn't Coker's strong suit. He was really good at hitting stuff on the outside deep, so it married well with a strong tailback.

That fact about Kiffin is probably the only reason I think we might be able to make true freshman at QB work while still making a legitimate pass at the team goals.

 

[Sabanizer]

I don't think he's better than late season Coker at all. He is probably about where I thought Coker was through 2 games though...In terms of feeling out what is he best at and how we can best maximize everyone else around him The best thing about Kiffin is he seems to tinker the offensive approach once he knows what the QB can do. He actually kinda demphasized the screen game compared to 2014 because that wasn't Coker's strong suit. He was really good at hitting stuff on the outside deep, so it married well with a strong tailback.

That fact about Kiffin is probably the only reason I think we might be able to make true freshman at QB work while still making a legitimate pass at the team goals.

Your points about the importance of Kiffin cannot be understated. Great coaches usually start to fade when their last batch of hands on coached assistance leave coupled with aged hang on's, like Bowden when Richt and others left. He never coached up assistants like that again, and Micky was old too. Jimbo is more Saban than Bowden.

One could argue that Coach Saban has his best batch of young coached up and primed season veterans that he's ever had. At LSU, more young, less seasoned, maybe better balance now. Times are good.

You are spot on that Kiffin imo that we would not be able to play a true freshman without the magic of Kiffin, 2 years, 2 SEC's and 1 NC. We our loaded with CNS coached and motivated assistants, heck the league is about to fill up with them. I bet he can keep the same pace for another 6 years.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

While we have seen plenty of just misses, that number certainly seems skewed. For instance, I can't really recall any mind blowing, I can't believe he made that type catches so Jalen's deep passes are not really inflated by catches that shouldn't have have been. On the other hand, just examine the throw to Dieter drop. It was very well thrown, but I mean drops happen right? Not really, Dieter doesn't drop passes, as in he's one of the best in all of college football at not dropping passes. Just that drop alone changes it to 4/13. We all know though that it could easily be 5/14 or even 6/15. There's no huge problem there, although he might never have the touch on the deep pass that Blake Sims had for example.

That one was on Dieter. He had his hands wrong for that catch. He should have had his palms up, not down. :cool2:

 

[gtgilbert]

I have no concerns about his ability to get it out to a deep receiver. I'm a bit worried about his tendency to just throw ropes with minimal or no touch...those are imminently intercept-able against conference opponents. It is great to see a guy behind center who is capable of making deep outs and comebacks like an NFL QB. That is a rare talent for a college quarterback and frankly we haven't had many of those guys here. It is also a great thing to see when he rifles a short pass in the right spot to give the receiver an honest chance to make a move. We kinda lacked that at times last season.

This is my thought also. Sometimes the QB doesn't have to put it on a rope for the deep ball and it's better to put just a little lift under the ball to give the WR a chance to run under it into the open space. OTOH, on those routes it's better to over throw than underthrow. I'm sure they'll continue to work on it to get the timing and touch right.