I mentioned politics and in some ways selma is alluding to this as well. The idea that money might be changing hands behind the scenes, people might be striking deals with their buddies and so on could be what's moving this and that's disconcerting because you don't generally have to bribe people into doing the right thing. I don't like the idea that drinking or golf buddies could be what's driving this. That aside, I just have to look at this like things are going to play out like they should.
Personally, I think a Big 12 breakup means the core of what's left goes to the AAC to try to build a pretend Power 5 conference. A lot of those guys just aren't very attractive to a major conference, the ones that were already got sniped (Nebraska, Missouri, Texas A&M and Colorado). What's left is what people didn't want, with the exception of Texas and Oklahoma of course.
Of those teams though, I'd honestly prefer Cincinnati (we both know they're not in the Big 12 but they are one of the most attractive up for grab programs) and Kansas. If I'm dreaming up an addition I might say a longshot like Illinois and Notre Dame, or a more realistic but still far off North Carolina and Virginia. However, if it's a position where the SEC has to make a move I think Kansas and Cincinnati does more long-term for the conference than doubling down in the same state and on football powers.
Kansas and Cincy are both contiguous with other states, so no real geographical issues. This move looks a lot more like the Maryland+Rutgers move that the Big 10 made, and I always considered that a cynical move. It actually seemed to work better for the Big 10 than the Nebraska move, so there is a lesson to be learned there. In this case the SEC is not just adding a decent chunk of population, they're adding a great basketball brand to, so I'd argue it could be a better move.
I don't like the idea of the SEC making the first move here, unless it's a true kill shot. Adding the state of Oklahoma isn't a kill shot... it's adding a state with a population of less than 4 million. It would be no more a kill shot than when the Big 10 added Nebraska. If the SEC really wants to dream big, they might as well try to figure out how to land Notre Dame, or Southern Cal, not try to further merge with the Big 12. They don't need to double down on football powers where they already have a strong footprint.