UT in the Outback at best, with a slightly better chance to be in the Peach again. Vols play 5 SEC teams that project to have winning records (UF, UGA, Auburn, Ole Miss and Bama).
In 02', the Vols beat 2 SEC teams with winning records (Arkansas and UK). In 03', the Vols beat only 1 SEC team with a winning record (UF). A BCS bowl would likely require UT to win 4 of those 5 SEC games cited above. Phat chance!
I look for the Vols to go 2-3 in those 5 games, 3-2 at best, and 1-4 is not unachieveable. In the end, I expect UT to finish 8-3 or 7-4 in the regular season, and that fits into Outback/Peach/Music City consideration depending on how the other teams shake out. A 7-4 Vol team plays in a lower than expected bowl and wins. A 8-3 Vol team plays in a better bowl and loses if it plays a motivated program. Hence, my overall prediction of 8-4.
UT will likely not get strong consideration for slightly better SEC bowls because of geographic proximity (e.g., the Outback passed on UT last season for UF because the game is in Florida, even though UT beat UF and had a better overall record).
I do not see Bama racing to Knoxville at 7-0. I see something closer to 5-2, and tougher games lie ahead with AU and LSU. I think the Tide finishes 7-4 or 6-5 so the bowl projection seems accurate to me. JMO.