CFN Realistic Bama Record 2008

[XXL TideFan]

Alabama
Realistic best case record with this schedule: 9-3
Barring total disaster worst case record: 6-6
Realistic record: 8-4

There are non-conference yawners against Tulane, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, and home dates against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State will ensure a winning season and a bowl game. That's where the fun stops. Clemson (played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta), at Arkansas, at Georgia, at Tennessee, and at LSU are all losable, and while the Auburn game is at home, that hasn't meant much of anything lately. On the plus side, the nasty games are mixed in with the relative layups, so there shouldn't be too much of a losing streak, if any. Of course, it'll be hard to go on a big run of wins.

SEC Breakdown Here

 

[bamaga]

looks about right to me, didn't see any 'likely losses 'on the list, that in itself is improvement

 

[Bamabuzzard]

After last year's offensive meltdown I'm going with the approach of when I see it fixed and working on the field I'll be a believer. But until then I'll go with my ever changing offseason predictions. I think the defense will not be a liability like it was projected to be last season and ended being the best unit between the offense and defense. I think McClain, Zeke Knight, the beefed up DL will make a material difference this season in the 08 season. You begin to see some bone crushing hits from this defense. The first season is always the toughest when learning a new scheme.

Offensively, again, until I see it fixed and working on the field I think we'll struggle against SEC caliber teams. The OL has yet to show any kind of "meanness" in the way they play and JPW has a ton of "kinks" to work out in his game.

Overall I think at best we go 8-4 but realistically I have a feeling we'll end up back here in Shreveport playing in the I-Bowl with six wins going into the game.

Here's why I say we'll only have six wins. I think we lose to the following teams this year.

Clemson, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Tenn & one of these four- Miss. St, Arky, Kentucky, Ole Miss.

 

[bayoutider]

Here's why I say we'll only have six wins. I think we lose to the following teams this year.

Clemson, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Tenn & one of these four- Miss. St, Arky, Kentucky, Ole Miss.

I'm not trying to pump sunshine but losing every big game year after year has to end sometime. There was a reason we had an end of season meltdown last year and a reason we have been losing to the top teams in our conference for the last several years. It has to be fixed sooner or later and I am picking sooner. There are two teams that are likely to beat us in Georgia and LSU but neither of them are unbeatable. We beat Tennessee last season with a crippled team and I don't think MSU can Croom us three in a row. Auburn has as many or more problems than us coming into this season. I think they are getting hyped ahead of us simply because they have been getting the best of us lately. That streak has to end especially the Bryant Denny streak. I don't give Ole Miss, Ky or Ark much of a chance to upset us this season. Clemson could give us a chance to get off to a great start or hand us our first loss again, Clemson is not unbeatable as they had 4 losses last year to extremely good teams. Maybe it being an early game and on neutral ground will help. I'm going to remain optimistic till I see reason to think the wheels are coming off again.

 

[THE BAMA IRISHMAN]

CFN is taking the safe approach which is what they do. I see an Alabama team much like the 91 team. 11-1 is not out of the question but I do see at least a strong 10 - 2/11 - 2 (with Bowl) year.

I know most on this board will disagree and thats fine. Its not how I feel inside, its what I see going on in Tuscaloosa. 91 was one of those I can see years. Last year I was lost and had no ideal about BAMA and how the team would react to Coach Saban. That is not a question anymore. The players now know Coach Saban's Expectations and this spring is proving that.

CFN 8 - 4 Realistic
TBI 10 -2 Realistic

 

[bamapuppy]

I would like to wait for my prediction until after the Clemson game. I believe that Clemson is loaded this year, so we should get a good read on our team by how we look against Clemson. But we have to know that Saban has a reason for an early test like Clemson.
I believe that we will be ready for the challenge, and surprise a heck of alot of people. We need a real good start to build confidence in a young team, and all the young talent to mature, and gel to really rip the barn.
Fact #1 beat the barn, and Tennessee and let everything else fall where it may. Just BEAT THE BARN, and I'll be happy.
WE WILL BEAT THE BARN..
We will win our bowl game... Probably not the SUGAR, but maybe the Outback... 9 wins
Sugar in 2009 10 wins
National Champs 2010 12 wins
Bright Future....

 

[BamaLaw]

First: Definite wins vs. TU, WKU, ASU, MSU, UK, and UM @ home, and UArk and UT on the road (8).

Then, Winnable/losable games vs. AU and CU. I choose to believe we win them--or at least split them. (9-10)

Then, the ones everyone expects us to lose are UGA and LSU. I believe we reclaim the deed on BDS-West this fall. Also, we were oh, so close vs. UGA last year. While, our Talent level still isn't as great as we would like, and our true freshmen will still be very green when we go to Athens, I'm not going to count us out on that one just yet, either. (10-11)

There was a time when just the name "Crimson Tide" won us some of the games when we were out manned. (I'm not going to say "won us some of the games we were supposed to lose, because at the time I'm speaking of, Bama wasn't ever supposed to lose!) I know we're not there, yet; however, I believe that we are headed back to the days of Bama being "supposed" to win them all. That being said, I don't believe for a minute that we will be undefeated this season and eleven wins will be a stretch. I'm going to go with 10 regular season wins plus If those two losses come against the right teams (CU and UGA), an appearance in the SECCG is not out of the question.

I think the Arky game last year taught the guys they can come from behind. UT taught them they can win against big names. The LSU and UGA games taught them that they can play with anyone. If anyone can build on those lessons and use them to motivate a team to play above their abilities, it is Coach Saban.

I say, if we get to the SECCG, we win it and I think we win our bowl game. Counting those two, that would push us to 12-2. Yes, I have found and repaired my crimson-colored glasses and I am wearing them. It feels good though to be able to look at a season with optimism instead of pessimism.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I'm not trying to pump sunshine but losing every big game year after year has to end sometime. There was a reason we had an end of season meltdown last year and a reason we have been losing to the top teams in our conference for the last several years. It has to be fixed sooner or later and I am picking sooner. There are two teams that are likely to beat us in Georgia and LSU but neither of them are unbeatable. We beat Tennessee last season with a crippled team and I don't think MSU can Croom us three in a row. Auburn has as many or more problems than us coming into this season. I think they are getting hyped ahead of us simply because they have been getting the best of us lately. That streak has to end especially the Bryant Denny streak. I don't give Ole Miss, Ky or Ark much of a chance to upset us this season. Clemson could give us a chance to get off to a great start or hand us our first loss again, Clemson is not unbeatable as they had 4 losses last year to extremely good teams. Maybe it being an early game and on neutral ground will help. I'm going to remain optimistic till I see reason to think the wheels are coming off again.

We need sunshine pumpers so pump, pump, pump. It creates a good balance on the board. It's just each year I've expected our offense to finally "come out" and all it's done is lay down. So, to keep from my poor heart being broke again like a school girl I'll temper myself and pout like a baby until they do something good for more than one game. How's that for maturity? :biggrin:

 

[Boclive]

9-3 would be pretty sweet for an unranked, lightly regarded team like Alabama.
Wins over UT and Auburn... and a bowl win makes it a 10 win season.

8-4, 9-3 sounds right to me.

 

[davefrat]

I see an Alabama team much like the 91 team. 11-1 is not out of the question but I do see at least a strong 10 - 2/11 - 2 (with Bowl) year.

Irish,

Are you still imbibing for St. Patty's day? :biggrin:

 

[bamar]

i expect no less than 8 wins. we beat tulane, ark state, western kentucky, miss. miss state, kentucky without woodson, and why not tenn, they lost ainge, and really have no one taking his place. they also lost their best linebacker to the pros. we beat arks, without mcfadden and jones. plus who is their starting qb dick again. clemson is solid, at all positions. did not lose qb, or rbs. we could lose to clemson, uga, and lsu, expect to beat auburn. they are starting a new qb, new offense, and lost some good players on defense.

 

[bayoutider]

i expect no less than 8 wins. we beat tulane, ark state, western kentucky, miss. miss state, kentucky without woodson, and why not tenn, they lost ainge, and really have no one taking his place. they also lost their best linebacker to the pros. we beat arks, without mcfadden and jones. plus who is their starting qb dick again. clemson is solid, at all positions. did not lose qb, or rbs. we could lose to clemson, uga, and lsu, expect to beat auburn. they are starting a new qb, new offense, and lost some good players on defense.

those are pretty much my thoughts also but let me throw in one more wrinkle. If Bama could lose to a team they are supposed to beat why not a team we are playing losing to us in an upset. I can remember the days when any team beating Bama was an upset. We could turn the tables this season. What we need is some leaders on the field and some hard nose coaches building a fire under this team.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

those are pretty much my thoughts also but let me throw in one more wrinkle. If Bama could lose to a team they are supposed to beat why not a team we are playing losing to us in an upset. I can remember the days when any team beating Bama was an upset. We could turn the tables this season. What we need is some leaders on the field and some hard nose coaches building a fire under this team.

I agree. The ball is now in the court of the players and the "want to" they have within them. The coaching quality is there. There's enough talent there to beat anybody in the SEC on a given Saturday. It's just about now going out there and doing it and not having mental & emotional breakdowns that end up costing us games.

 

[deliveryman35]

I predicted 7-5 for last season and was off by one game. I'm not quite as bullish on this season as some of you are. Too much uncertainty at the qb position, no 'break out of the pack' rb, and a very poor O-line performance last season tells me we are probably looking at '09 having more potential as a breakout year than '08. I simply believe there's still much rebuilding to do, and it's not going to get done in 5-6 months. As I have commented before, I think an 8-4 finish would be an outstanding achievement and the real, minimum benchmark to label '08 a successful campaign, given our killer sec road schedule alone. So I will be optimistic and say we have a chance to finish
8-4.

 

[UA All the Way]

Clemson- L (I think we're still breaking in our new O, but we play close)
Tulane - W (of course)
Western Kentucky - W (of course)
Arkansas - W (this game will be closer than most think, we will be tested by them as always)
Georgia- L (we play close but dawg talent wins the day)
Kentucky - W (just not enough talent on that team)
Ole Miss - L (we've played them VERY close the last 3 years, they now have a real HC who can use their talent)
Tennessee - W (we avenge the Ole Miss loss, although CPF will throw everything including the kitchen sink at us)
Arkansas State - W (we need a good break at this point)
LSU - L (still too talented, plus being in BR)
Mississippi State - W (2 in a row is WAY too much, it'll be a dirty rough SEC style game)
Auburn -W (it's the Iron Bowl so it's 50/50 every year, but I'm an optimist)

Regular season record: 8-4
Final record: 9-4 (SEC schedule toughens us up for a bowl victory)

 

[RogueElephant]

I predicted 7-5 for last season and was off by one game. I'm not quite as bullish on this season as some of you are. Too much uncertainty at the qb position, no 'break out of the pack' rb, and a very poor O-line performance last season tells me we are probably looking at '09 having more potential as a breakout year than '08. I simply believe there's still much rebuilding to do, and it's not going to get done in 5-6 months. As I have commented before, I think an 8-4 finish would be an outstanding achievement and the real, minimum benchmark to label '08 a successful campaign, given our killer sec road schedule alone. So I will be optimistic and say we have a chance to finish
8-4.

I agree with you.

 

[bamastan71]

Clemson-???? "IF" we come out strong in this game, I think we can win it. Dont let them get out to an early lead or its over.
Tulane - W
Western Kentucky - W
Arkansas - W
Georgia- L They have toooo good of a team the first time around. (see below)
Kentucky - W
Ole Miss - W
Tennessee - W
Arkansas State - W
LSU - L As much as it pains me to say it I just think its 09 before we take them down.
Mississippi State - W
Auburn -W THE "streak" ENDS THIS YEAR!!!!!!!

SECCG- A rematch with Georgia, and I think this time aroung it can go either way because we are coming off a good season, and a win against the barn.

So I think we could be anywhere from 9-4 to 11-2 after the SECCG and before the bowl game.

 

[BamaDude06]

Can someone explain how Auburn is playing a tougher schedule than Bama?
Sure Auburn is playing at WVU, but they get LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee all at home (We play all four away).

 

[LSU63]

Clemson-?
Tulane-W
Western Kentucky-W
Arkansas-W (new coach, ways to go)
Georgia-L
Kentucky-W
Ole Miss-W (new coach, even further to go)
Tennesee-W(FatPhil is imploding, this might not be pretty)
Ark. St.-W
LSU-L
Miss. St.-W
Auburn-?

Figure 8 wins, then split the two question marks, and you got 9-3. May lose one you're supposed to win and win one you're supposed to lose, still 9-3

Worse case, 8-4, little luck to go with improving team attitude to with the coaching, 10-2

I remember in another thread someone said that Bama's schedule was rougher that LSU's. I don't see it, what do y'all think?

 

[JessN]

those are pretty much my thoughts also but let me throw in one more wrinkle. If Bama could lose to a team they are supposed to beat why not a team we are playing losing to us in an upset. I can remember the days when any team beating Bama was an upset. We could turn the tables this season. What we need is some leaders on the field and some hard nose coaches building a fire under this team.

Something is missing on offense from a leadership standpoint that has to be fixed; otherwise, we can drop the "major upset" talk right now.

Alabama's top offensive leaders are Caldwell and Andre Smith. To a lesser extent, Travis McCall, Nikita Stover and Terry Grant. Caldwell is the only one I'd really call a significant leader, however.

And there's your problem. I know I'm going to ruffle some feathers with this but I do not see Wilson as a true leader at QB, although he does perform well in the two-minute offense. Of the other five I listed, only Smith and Caldwell are guaranteed of being on the field in key situations. This is what keeps Alabama from being a dangerous team.

Upcoming this year, Alabama has virtually no shot at all of beating Georgia. If that game is closer than 14 points I will be very surprised. Fortunately, Alabama does not play Florida or there would be two of those games.

LSU and Clemson are both better than Alabama, but to what degree is debatable. LSU probably has more overall talent but Clemson would seem to have better "nucleus experience" coming back and CU is always tough at the front end of a season. I expect both those games to be losses as well.

I don't get all the pro-UT hype I'm seeing around here and Saban has proved on several occasions that he can beat a Fulmer-coached team even with far lesser talent. Arkansas is going to be a very bad team for a month or two. If Alabama loses either of these games, it will be a disappointment.

MSU won't beat Alabama a third time in a row. But Ole Miss might finally break the cycle. That's the upset special I've got my eye on. Nutt has never cared about playing in Tuscaloosa, and if he can convince his team of the same, OM is a running back away from being 8-4 in its own right.

The rest of the OOC teams shouldn't even come within a sniff of Alabama, and neither should Kentucky.

That leaves Auburn. I don't have to tell anyone how important it is for Alabama to win this game. Prior to the coaching shakeups, I would still have picked Auburn. Now I'm not as sure. Spring games don't tell you much but I thought it was notable how much success the Auburn offense had against its new defensive scheme. That's probably more due to issues on defense than any kind of offensive juggernaut forming over there. Auburn still has a QB issue and if Franklin's offense was really that dominating, everyone would be running it by now. It's been out there for 10-15 years and it hasn't been hiding under a rock.

If Auburn's defense starts to break down, then Alabama might end the string this year. But if the AU defense continues to be tough, Alabama will be 8-4 at best at the end of the year.