I listened to a summary of the Manhatten Institute Study from December 2025 this morning. It is very instructive to view particularly the percentage of new entrants believe in the numerous conspiracy theories put forth. https://manhattan.institute/article...publican-coalition-and-the-minorities-of-magaBecause politics, that's why. I find it difficult to believe that anybody in D.C. actually cared about the crack epidemic in L.A. or the meth epidemic in rural America. The people dying from this likely weren't voting anyway.
The tribal tendencies that evolution has dropped into our laps dictate that we MUST have an enemy. The unifying principle of every society is war. War for resources. War for pride. War against drugs. There's a reason why we use this descriptor (war) for handling things we don't like and we very well can't declare war on a bunch of pitiable users.
Quite a lot of information to digest.
On specific theories:
- The 2020 election: Just over half of the Current GOP (51%) believes that the 2020 U.S. presidential election was fraudulent, while 41% say that view is probably or definitely false. Among New Entrant Republicans, support for this belief rises to 60%.
- Vaccines and autism: One in three in the Current GOP (33%) believe that childhood vaccines cause autism. This view is more common among college graduates (42%) than non-graduates (29%), and among New Entrant Republicans (47%).
- 9/11 conspiracies: Four in ten in the Current GOP (41%) believe that the 9/11 attacks were likely orchestrated or permitted by U.S. government actors. Belief is highest among men (48%), college graduates (51%), Republicans under 50 (53%, compared with 34% of those over 50), and New Entrant Republicans (53%). Among black GOP voters the figure is 58%, and among Hispanic GOP voters, 56%.
- Holocaust denial or minimization:Nearly four in ten in the Current GOP (37%) believe the Holocaust was greatly exaggerated or did not happen as historians describe. Younger men are especially likely to hold this view (54% of men under 50 vs. 39% of women under 50). Among men over 50, 41% agree, compared with 18% of women over 50. Racial divides are particularly striking:
- 77% of Hispanic GOP voters
- 30% of white GOP voters
- 66% of black GOP voters
- Moon landing: A similarly sized chunk of the Current GOP (36%) believes that the Apollo 11 moon landing was faked by NASA. Again, younger men are more likely to hold this view (51% of men under 50 vs. 38% of women under 50). There are stark racial divides: while only 31% of white GOP voters believe the conspiracy, this rises to 59% among Hispanic Republicans and 63% among black Republicans.
