Offensive production the last three seasons

[bamaslammer]

Did a quick look at the stats this morning. In the last three seasons Alabama's offensive production has nose dived. Just comparing to last season, you know, the season the OC essentially got let go, we had a 15% drop in passing yards. which we were told to expect since we were going to a power offense, but the top three rushers were down by 10%. If you compare those to the two proceeding seasons the comparison is much worse. I'm actually not sure how we got to the playoffs with drops like this. We had a new starting QB who was not a top recruit, we had an offensive line of unknown quality and a new OC. I think there is blame to go around. but from what I can see the OL is the biggest issue. I know Eric Wolford has been on a two year mission to rebuild the OL but so far I'd have to classify this as "inconclusive". I did see some better results at times in run blocking but the pass blocking was just terrible. In fact it was historically bad. They blew away the Alabama record for sacks allowed (48). That's the all time record. For those of who are old, this blows away Shula's results with bucket step Bob. I'm amazed Milro isn't in traction. Milro does have some responsibility, he's a bit slow to read the defense and he's astoundingly bad at scrambling, which is odd considering how fast he is. He's lethal when he's running straight ahead but when running sideways he looks indecisive and rarely makes any plays downfield once he leaves the pocket. Some of that might improve with experience but I don't consider him a truly "mobile" QB. he's a QB who can run forward really fast. Thoughts?

 

[B1GTide]

This was the worst offense in the Saban era if we leave out his first season. Worst in every way.

 

[BamaMoon]

Thoughts?

You nail it bro! The cracks in the dynasty you are diagraming is decidedly an offensive issue.

Defense was plenty good to win it all this year.

You are right it's not just one thing, but I think you are right it starts with the OL and ends with a fundamentally flawed QB, who is trying to mascarade as an athlete. But he's basically just real fast going north and south.

 

[BamaMoon]

An even scarier thought?

What in the world does the downturn look like if not for a generationally amazing QB last year who could fix things in a nanosecond and make problem plays look like winning plays???

 

[BamaDMD]

I think that next year if Milroe improves during the offseason on his progressions and we can get another good receiver or two that things will improve dramatically. I'm willing to give Coach Tommy Rees another season to keep on working out the kinks.

 

[Tidelines]

Unless changes are made, next year will look alot like this year.

 

[BamaMoon]

Unless changes are made, next year will look alot like this year.

That's my biggest fear. We trounce WKY and USF in first two games and then we face Wisky who will do what UM did last night.

If no changes are made we'll get the same frustrating result. And with next year's schedule we'll be lucky not to have a couple of regular season losses. Might now even make the 12 team playoff if that's the case.

 

[spidermayin]

Our offense was just not up to par for the most part this year. All those amazing plays Milroe made throughout the year really just overshadowed the obvious downturn of the offensive production. Milroe needs to improve on his short passing game and making quick decisions. He needs to work on pocket awareness, if that's even possible? I think you either have pocket awareness, or you don't. Take away the deep ball and limit Milroe's scrambling and you see what kind of offensive production we had. Reminds me of the days defenses figured out to just cover the right side of the field for Jalen Hurts and he just scrambled to the right and threw it away so many times.

 

[Cruloc]

And if Milroe is QB1 in 2024.....our offensive production will be a copy/paste of 2023. There are things he can work on to improve, but his field vision and decision making and timing on his throws just won't improve much.

I expect Simpson to transfer in the coming days, if he doesn't, great, but I'll be surprised.

I expect Saban to stay loyal to Milroe until he just can't....because I'll say it now, Sayin is a better QB than Milroe.

Michigan has shown the blueprints now on how to limit Milroe enough. The schedule for 2024 is filled with defenses that will copy that blueprint.

 

[denver]

We missed the short passes for long gains this year..some of which used to be TDs with our speed...JMs shortcomings are not physical, they are mental...reading the game at game speed...that is a steep learning curve at this stage. We need a QB who can speed up the game and react quicker.

 

[KrAzY3]

One of the main issues to me is lack of evaluation/recruiting/development at WR and RB.

This isn't to say Alabama doesn't have the talent, this isn't anything against the guys they do have. But, about midway through the season I knew Alabama wasn't going to hit 1,000 at either position, which generally speaking would be a noteworthy thing.

You can blame Rees or Milroe, but it happened last year as well, with Young and BoB, so it isn't just them.

But, the last time Alabama recruited a 1,000 yard receiver it was John Metchie in 2018. The last time Alabama recruited a 1,000 rusher it was Brian Robinson in 2017. We had 2023 guys on the field, that's 5 years of recruiting without a single 1,000 receiver or rusher!

Even worse, not only has Alabama failed to have anyone reach 1,000 yards in the past two seasons, but the leading receiver in those two seasons and the leading rusher in one of those seasons were not recruits at all, but transfers. So the something clearly bottomed out at some point in the past few years.

 

[dtgreg]

With the Center and Oline problems we had this year, JM was the only thing that kept us in games. I've never seen anything like it. If the national media knows the name of your Center, that's... that's not a good thing.

 

[Coach D]

One of the main issues to me is lack of evaluation/recruiting/development at WR and RB.

This isn't to say Alabama doesn't have the talent, this isn't anything against the guys they do have. But, about midway through the season I knew Alabama wasn't going to hit 1,000 at either position, which generally speaking would be a noteworthy thing.

You can blame Rees or Milroe, but it happened last year as well, with Young and BoB, so it isn't just them.

But, the last time Alabama recruited a 1,000 yard receiver it was John Metchie in 2018. The last time Alabama recruited a 1,000 rusher it was Brian Robinson in 2017. We had 2023 guys on the field, that's 5 years of recruiting without a single 1,000 receiver or rusher!

Even worse, not only has Alabama failed to have anyone reach 1,000 yards in the past two seasons, but the leading receiver in those two seasons and the leading rusher in one of those seasons were not recruits at all, but transfers. So the something clearly bottomed out at some point in the past few years.

Think you are underselling Bond. He is a 1,000 yard type wr and Burton (transfer yes)has 798 with the qb struggles. Agree don’t think the two top rbs in Jase and Roydell and the same level talent as in past but the two fresh seem to be and maybe Miller. Oline been a problem the past 3 years with qb being a bigger part this year.
The wr development is not great last 4 ish years more than talent issue to me. But OC huge issue previous two years and qb/oc battle it seemed at times this year.

 

[Cruloc]

Lets get a new OL coach. Whatever we've been doing for years now isn't working.

Milroe can get to work on what he needs to work on and if Sayin beats him out in the spring then he beats him. Doubt he does since Milroe has game xp now, but I bet Sayin can see the field better already and make the throws on time.

We probably need to find a capable Center as well...or back under center instead of being in shotgun all the time since we can't snap the ball in shotgun. I still don't understand this one....I'd have done so many reps on that snap I'd have been able to do it in my sleep. If I'm the starting center for any football team, I have one main job....by God, I'm gonna be the best snapper you've seen, have that ball hit him chest high consistently.

 

[SkinnyFats]

Blaming the wide receivers for lack of development isn't fair.

What do you think the chances are that DeVonta Smith wins the Heisman if Milroe is the QB that year? Zero, Zip, Zilch. Absolutely no chance.

Jameson Williams and John Metchie combined for 175 catches for 2714 yards and 23 TDs in one year. Do you think that would be remotely possible with Milroe at QB? No chance.

Brock Bowers is UGA's best player, and will go in the top half of the 1st round of the NFL draft. If he played for Bama this season, a typical stat line for him would be "2 catches for 23 yards, 0 TDs". He'd just be blocking all the time. Milroe would never see him, because he'd be in traffic in the middle of the field.

Some QBs make everyone around them better. Some don't. A QB's job is to get the ball to the playmakers, not to be the only playmaker on the team.

Our best receiver stat line in the Michigan game was Bond with "4 catches for 47 yards and no TDs". Jermaine Burton, our most experienced receiver, was "4 catches for 21 yards, 0 TDs".

If I'm a receiver and Milroe looks like the QB next year, I'm hitting the portal, looking elsewhere for somebody to get me the ball.

 

[Cruloc]

We start off with WKU and USF next year. Two teams Milroe will look fine against...if he's the starter.

Then we're at Wisconsin, OFF a week, then Georgia.

If we want to have a real offense, one that keeps good defenses honest, one that distributes the ball to playmakers in space.....there is one QB on the depth chart that can't be the starter. We have too many big time WR's and RB's not to be distributing the ball instead of playing "3rd and hope Milroe can do something."

I don't want to watch this offense for another season...with an experienced QB that still can't play the position the way he needs to, the way he should be.

 

[BamaMoon]

So I was debating this with a fellow-Bama friend this morning:

We know JM is part of the problem and we know what he's lacking in.

But is more on him as QB or CTR as play caller?

My friend think CTR should hit the road because he doesn't know if he can fix the obvious problems JM has by next fall.

Me, on the other hand, argue that CTR did an amazing job this year by retooling the offense mid-year to allow us to have the amount of success we had with JM's obvious deficiencies. I argue JM's problems are probably not fixable by next year and serviceable at this level as he trains on the job.

I think we vanilla-ed the offense down so much that teams were able to game plan for us the longer they saw the simplicity. I personally think CTR did an amazing job. He's not Kiffin or Sark, but those guys don't grow on trees or else every team would have them as an OC.

 

[davefrat]

Unless changes are made, next year will look alot like this year.

Winning the SEC and making the playoff isn’t really something to look at with trepidation or angst…at least not for me.

 

[KrAzY3]

Think you are underselling Bond. He is a 1,000 yard type wr and Burton (transfer yes)has 798 with the qb struggles.

I'm trying to make it clear this isn't necessarily about Bond or lack of talent, but lack of progression at the position for what ever reason. I certainly wouldn't necessarily blame the player for lack of development, that's a coaching thing to me.

Some people want to say it's all on Milroe, but the same thing happened last year with a Heisman trophy winning, #1 overall pick at QB so it clearly isn't just QB play. Yes, Jameson and Metchie had a great year in 2021, but Jameson wasn't recruited or really developed at Alabama either and that's part of the issue.

They went from Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, Metchie and Smith, an embarrassment of riches to the top recruited receiver having 674 yards in the past two seasons. I'm not saying it's a talent issue, just saying it is an issue.

Getting back specifically to Bond though, if talent is not the issue then what is? He had 220 yards playing with Young, and Alabama was looking for a true #1 receiver that year. That's not bad, he might be the next great Alabama receiver, but it's still slower development than we've seen from some other guys.

It's about not just about 2023, or even the 2022, but also the 2021 championship game where Alabama desperately needed a receiver to step up, and look at who was available.
Agiye Hall who hasn't done anything, Jojo Earle who hasn't either, Ja'Corey Brooks who never really got going either, Traeshon Holden who hadn't done that much either. The one noteworthy guy would be Javon Baker who went to UCF and had a 1,000 yard season this year, but he topped out at 101 yards for Alabama.

These are all 4 and in some cases 5 star guys, they should have in theory become the next batch of great receivers and when Alabama needed something from them none of them could step up. This wasn't on Milroe, this had nothing to do with that, it was something else that had gone wrong.

I'm not sure people are aware of this, but Alabama was extremely high in drops in 2022 and then moved into a much more comfortable middle of the pack in drops (still not great) in 2023. I'm not blaming players, just saying something hasn't been quite right the past few years..

 

[B1GTide]

We start off with WKU and USF next year. Two teams Milroe will look fine against...if he's the starter.

Then we're at Wisconsin, OFF a week, then Georgia.

If we want to have a real offense, one that keeps good defenses honest, one that distributes the ball to playmakers in space.....there is one QB on the depth chart that can't be the starter. We have too many big time WR's and RB's not to be distributing the ball instead of playing "3rd and hope Milroe can do something."

I don't want to watch this offense for another season...with an experienced QB that still can't play the position the way he needs to, the way he should be.

If Milroe is the QB and cannot run the full offense, Alabama will lose to Georgia next year. Heck, Alabama might lose to them anyway. They are going to be hard to beat again