Pate on Bama's recruiting surge under DeBoer (video)

[Cruloc]

You're welcome

 

[Con]

You're welcome

He is a brave man to put up $2,000 for each de commitment from this class. I like the message he was putting out there about us.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

He is a brave man to put up $2,000 for each de commitment from this class. I like the message he was putting out there about us.

But the odds are in his favor that there will be more that do not decommit than do which means he wins going away. If any idiot took that bet they deserve to be fleeced.

 

[Con]

But the odds are in his favor that there will be more than do not decommit than do which means he wins going away. If any idiot took that bet they deserve to be fleeced.

Ohhhh, now I got it. I was thinking about it all wrong. I was thinking just one decommit at a time vs all of them together.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

The bet is kind of convoluted, but it is interesting. Pate is saying that commitments mean a lot. They're not 100%, but they're far from the "meaningless" characterization that Bama haters want to assign them.

Here's his offer. Pate will give you $2K for each current commit that bails if you give him $1K for each current commit that signs with us.

Assuming Pate is right in that we currently have 22 commitments (I don't know...I haven't checked), it would take 8 de-commitments before Pate loses money. Here's how it would work:

7 Decommitments
22 commits. 7 decommit / 15 keep their commitments. Pate owes you 7 x $2K = $14K. But if 7 de-committed, that means 15 lived up to their "meaningless" commitments. Which means you owe him 15 x $1K = $15K. Net $1K to Pate. Not as much as he would like, I'm sure. But he's still a grand richer.

8 Decommitments
22 commits. 8 de-commit / 14 keep their commitments. Pate owes you $16K, but you owe him $14K. Net $2k to you.

In today's world of college football, I'm not naive enough to think we will have 0 de-commitments between now and December 4. But absent DeBoer getting canned mid-season for some unfathomable reason, we're not having 8.