Russia Invades Ukraine pt XII

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TIDE-HSV

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Also, if you know your artillery has less than 4 rounds/day, it might be best to withdraw some of them a bit, let them rest, and focus on supplying the arty you do have.

As for the infantry, "the poor bloody infantry," my advice would be, to quote Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain on Little Round Top, "We're going to have to be stubborn today."


(See, I said something nice about a Yankee).
Actually, according to Cooper this AM, that's exactly what they're doing, a phased withdrawal from the town, blowing the bridges over the river behind them. I didn't post it, because it's largely a diatribe against the West for providing too little, too late, and then against the ZSU generals...
 

TIDE-HSV

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I think the Ukrainians are fighting for their homes.
The Ukrainians all know about the Holodomor (3.5 million dead). The Russian troops, if they are being honest, cannot name an incident in which the Ukrainians wantonly and cruelly killed millions of Russians.
Finally, I think the Ukrainians' mentality if more Polish, while the Russian mentality is more fourteenth century Mongol.
I saw an interesting post on another board the other day by a Belarusian. He said that Belarusian and Ukrainian are much more similar than either is to Russian, both being descended from the old Ruthenian language. He said that Russian is much more influenced by south Slavic languages and more foreign borrowings. He estimated that Belarusian and Ukrainian were at least 80% mutually intelligible, accents and dialect aside, and that Russian was far below that...
 

Tidewater

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I saw an interesting post on another board the other day by a Belarusian. He said that Belarusian and Ukrainian are much more similar than either is to Russian, both being descended from the old Ruthenian language. He said that Russian is much more influenced by south Slavic languages and more foreign borrowings. He estimated that Belarusian and Ukrainian were at least 80% mutually intelligible, accents and dialect aside, and that Russian was far below that...
From what I have seen, that is true. Of course, I was only trained in Russian so Ukrainian and Belarusian both look weird to me.
 

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Somewhat tangential video, but I found this interesting regarding Russia's S-400 air defense system.

A pretty balanced view.
The Russians have S-400s in Kaliningrad (the former East Prussia).
From there, they can close off the Baltic airspace connection between the Baltic States and the rest of Europe.
... until those S-400 systems get knocked out.

Plus, I am reliably informed that reloading the missiles takes 30 minutes.
 

TIDE-HSV

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I notice that the Israelis are very concerned about the pending transactions transferring S-400s to Iran, because they think it may cut off their last chance to bomb the nuclear establishments...
 
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Tidewater

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I notice that the Israelis are very concerned about the pending transactions transferring S-400s to Iran, because they think it may cut off their last chance to bomb the nuclear establishments...
I had intended to continue my thoughts on the S-400. It takes 30 minutes to reload (open source intel). That is why the article mentioned talks about "saturation bombing." If a battalion has 18 launchers, then send 36 cruise missiles against it, and the entire system will collapse. The S-400 system may get the first 18 of your cruise missiles, but the next 18 will wipe the battalion out. Then the Russians in Kaliningrad will have no air defense (except maybe manpads), so the Air Force can bomb at will.
 

twofbyc

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If Russia didn't have nukes, they would Mexico of the East
This is remarkable to me - I remember reading stories in the last twenty years or so, where our troops were asked their opinions of who our toughest opponent would be in a war (I assumed non-nuclear war); more than a few responded that they would least like to fight the Russian army.
I’m wondering what they were basing that on, if not nuclear capability.
 

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This is remarkable to me - I remember reading stories in the last twenty years or so, where our troops were asked their opinions of who our toughest opponent would be in a war (I assumed non-nuclear war); more than a few responded that they would least like to fight the Russian army.
I’m wondering what they were basing that on, if not nuclear capability.
I think a lot of it was Russian propaganda and the Defense Industrial Complex which needs to hype an enemy to justify spending ruinous amounts of money on defense.
Plus, the Russians are notoriously tough and indifferent to pain. They beat Napoleon's Grande Armée in 1812. The beat the Wehrmacht 1941-1945. Those two were considered the best in the world at the time.
 

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Plus, the Russians are notoriously tough and indifferent to pain. They beat Napoleon's Grande Armée in 1812. The beat the Wehrmacht 1941-1945. Those two were considered the best in the world at the time.
True, but (as you likelyknow better than anyone else here) those wars were fought with what amounts to Civil War era technology compared to today - and that seems to be where the russkie weakness has shown up. Without the almost endless supply of dollars to be spent on military tech, it appears they lack the widespread war capability that the US has. All the willpower in the world (which the russkies also appear to lack) won't make up for an enemy that can kill you before you even know they're there.

"Oh, you can stop X? They we'll throw Y and Z, as well as A, B, and C at you and simply overwhelm your limited ability..."
 
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Tidewater

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True, but (as you likelyknow better than anyone else here) those wars were fought with what amounts to Civil War era technology compared to today - and that seems to be where the russkie weakness has shown up. Without the almost endless supply of dollars to be spent on military tech, it appears they lack the widespread war capability that the US has. All the willpower in the world (which the russkies also appear to lack) won't make up for an enemy that can kill you before you even know they're there.

"Oh, you can stop X? They we'll throw Y and Z, as well as A, B, and C at you and simply overwhelm your limited ability..."
True, but warfare is an interactive activity and the enemy gets a vote. Being at the bow-wave of development is very expensive, being at the trailing edge is much cheaper. Let me give you a mundane example from local history.
In the 1930s, the Belgians spent the equivalent of billions of dollars to build Fort Eben-Emael, to guard the crossings of the Moselle and the Albert Canal. The Germans realized it would be a tough nut to crack conventionally and lots of German soldiers would die trying. Kurt Student got the idea of landing gliders inside the fort and attacking it from the inside out (all the guns in Eben-Emael faced out) and the top down. The Germans also fielded shaped charge bombs for the first time. A shaped charge is a demolition charge with a conical-shaped hole in the bottom. When it goes off, it shoots a plasma jet wherever the conical shaped hole is pointed. The Germans placed them on top of the gun cupolas and pulled the fuses. Boom, useless cannon cupola. The Germans did not have to take the fort. They just needed to render it useless for a while.
The Belgians spent billions making a very fine fort and the Germans spent hundreds of dollars and rendered the fort useless in 20 minutes.
We would be wise to bear that in mind.
 
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TexasBama

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True, but warfare is an interactive activity and the enemy gets a vote. Being at the bow-wave of development is very expensive, being at the trailing edge is much cheaper. Let me give you a mundane example from local history.
In the 1930s, the Belgians spent the equivalent of billions of dollars to build Fort Eben-Emael, to guard the crossings of the Moselle and the Albert Canal. The Germans realized it would be a tough nut to crack conventionally and lots of German soldiers would die trying. Kurt Student got the idea of landing gliders inside the fort and attacking it from the inside out (all the guns in Eben-Emael faced out) and the top down. The Germans also fielded shaped charge bombs for the first time. A shaped charge is a demolition charge with a conical-shaped hole in the bottom. When it goes off, it shoots a plasma jet wherever the conical shaped hole is pointed. The Germans placed them on top of the gun cupolas and pulled the fuses. Boom, useless cannon cupola. The Germans did nto have to take the fort. They just needed to render it useless for a while.
The Belgians spent billions making a very fine fort and the Germans spent hundreds of dollars and rendered the fort useless in 20 minutes.
We would be wise to bear that in mind.
Fixed fortifications are monuments to man’s stupidity
 

Tidewater

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Fixed fortifications are monuments to man’s stupidity
Fixed fortifications are not guarantors of victory, but they do help.
In 1944, 75,000 American troops attacked 45,000 German troops in the fortress port of Brest. After weeks of fighting and almost 10,000 killed and wounded, the Americans took Brest.
The German retained Lorient, St. Nazaire, Royan, Dunkirk, and some others.
The long duration of the fighting at Brest, the appalling cost led Ike to forego attempting the reduction of the other ports until May 1945.
Fixed fortifications did that.
 
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Tidewater

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This is an article by a new author. It's long, but I find it a bit easier to follow than Cooper...

Stefan Korshak
One of many stupid things Hitler did in Russia was to declare "Fortress Cities." Probably impressed with how the Soviets defended Stalingrad, he wanted his guys to be equally stalwart in fighting in other cities. The problem was thatStalingrad was never cut off from the outside. When Hitler declared Smolensk a fortress city, the Soviets simply surrounded it and reduced the pocket. Since the trapped Germans were cut off from resupply and reinforcement, it was merely a matter of time. Same thing with Minsk, etc.

The Ukrainians would be wise to not let themselves get surrounded in Bakhmut. There is nothing inside Bakhmut worth the sacrifice.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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One of many stupid things Hitler did in Russia was to declare "Fortress Cities." Probably impressed with how the Soviets defended Stalingrad, he wanted his guys to be equally stalwart in fighting in other cities. The problem was thatStalingrad was never cut off from the outside. When Hitler declared Smolensk a fortress city, the Soviets simply surrounded it and reduced the pocket. Since the trapped Germans were cut off from resupply and reinforcement, it was merely a matter of time. Same thing with Minsk, etc.

The Ukrainians would be wise to not let themselves get surrounded in Bakhmut. There is nothing inside Bakhmut worth the sacrifice.
I've become convinced that the ZSU is using Bakhmut to bleed the Russians and making a strategic phased withdrawal. They are fortifying a fallback defensive line west of Bakhmut. They're just making the Russians pay in blood for every meter. Some Russians are down to fighting with trenching tools. They realize that the Russian tactics are demographic suicide...
 
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Tidewater

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I've become convinced that the ZSU is using Bakhmut to bleed the Russians and making a strategic phased withdrawal. They are fortifying a fallback defensive line west of Bakhmut. They're just making the Russians pay in blood for every meter. Some Russians are down to fighting with trenching tools. They realize that the Russian tactics are demographic suicide...
I think you are right. The value of the city to the Ukrainians appears to be solely that the Russians want it.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Another new author and article , mainly on the extended range Vilkha missiles of Ukraine...

[utl=[URL]https://medium.com/the-dock-on-the-bay/ukraine-using-110-km-range-surface-to-surface-vilkha-missiles-ea7caf2c922d]James[/URL] Marinero[/url]
 
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