Russia invades Ukraine XV

[JDCrimson]

With this kind damage i dont know why we are pivoting to negotiate ceasefire...

Also, just saw this image of the Russian Navy with confirmed sunk ships d out:
View attachment 39504

 

[TIDE-HSV]

With this kind damage i dont know why we are pivoting to negotiate ceasefire...

The allies are running out of patience and assets are the problem. The US is not the only one with political problems concerning the war. I've never thought Ukraine would get it all back. I also think that a ceasefire will simply give Russia more time to rearm for the next round...

 

[JDCrimson]

Democracy doesnt have a good track record for winning wars over the last 50 years...

Autocratcies have figured out if they commit enough of their men to slaughter in a conventional strategy that democracies don't have the stomach for that fight. We cant win an infantry battle with China. If we can't or won't supply the munitions to the countries willing to fight, what good is it have the US as an ally?

 

[crimsonaudio]

Democracy doesnt have a good track record for winning wars over the last 50 years...

Autocratcies have figured out if they commit enough of their men to slaughter in a conventional strategy that democracies don't have the stomach for that fight. We cant win an infantry battle with China. If we can't or won't supply the munitions to the countries willing to fight, what good is it have the US as an ally?

They've also figured out that if you pick on smaller countries it's less likely to turn into a full on war.

Ultimately we (the US) have to decide if we want (and can afford) to be the world police or not. And that's not a yes or no question wrt war - it's a matter of do we want to help out these smaller countries being attacked now or wait until a hot war is inevitable.

We'll pay for it now or we'll (probably) pay a lot more for it later.

 

[Tidewater]

With this kind damage i dont know why we are pivoting to negotiate ceasefire...

That is fairly localized and the Russian Black Sea fleet was never a central part of Russian victory anyway.
Take a step back from the map and look at the big picture. How much land has Ukraine recovered since September 2022? Not much. How much has it cost Ukraine? How much has it cost Russia? Look at the respective replacement rates and then look at the big picture trend lines.
It sucks, it is morally repugnant, but I think when the summer 2023 Ukrainian offensive fizzled, that was Ukraine's last chance to win on Ukraine's terms. (Unless the strategy is to topple the Putin regime from within, but that will take a whole different set of concepts and a whole different set of resources.)

 

[JDCrimson]

Yes it sucks and we will pay a bigger price later wuth Russia imo. If im NATO I land grab the rest of Ukraine because Putin or next Russian dictator will nibble away at the rest of Ukraine. Russia doesnt want a hot war with the NATO alliance. They know they will get smoked. Further China, likely wont allow them to get in a hot war with the NATO alliance.

Without knowing the intimate details, it would seem the best course forward is play defense and pin ***** the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine such that Russian maybe slowed in rearming, keep killing Russians.

What is a shame is that it looks like our M1 tanks and F-16s will not be tested in this theater. I believed if we could get over the front line through the air it would change the balance of the war making recovery of territory more likely.

That is fairly localized and the Russian Black Sea fleet was never a central part of Russian victory anyway.
Take a step back from the map and look at the big picture. How much land has Ukraine recovered since September 2022? Not much. How much has it cost Ukraine? How much has it cost Russia? Look at the respective replacement rates and then look at the big picture trend lines.
It sucks, it is morally repugnant, but I think when the summer 2023 Ukrainian offensive fizzled, that was Ukraine's last chance to win on Ukraine's terms. (Unless the strategy is to topple the Putin regime from within, but that will take a whole different set of concepts and a whole different set of resources.)

 

[NationalTitles18]

The republican strategy of Ukraine losing this war appears to be working.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Yes it sucks and we will pay a bigger price later wuth Russia imo. If im NATO I land grab the rest of Ukraine because Putin or next Russian dictator will nibble away at the rest of Ukraine. Russia doesnt want a hot war with the NATO alliance. They know they will get smoked. Further China, likely wont allow them to get in a hot war with the NATO alliance.

Without knowing the intimate details, it would seem the best course forward is play defense and pin ***** the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine such that Russian maybe slowed in rearming, keep killing Russians.

What is a shame is that it looks like our M1 tanks and F-16s will not be tested in this theater. I believed if we could get over the front line through the air it would change the balance of the war making recovery of territory more likely.

I thought that at one time, but I'm not so sure now. The F-16s are great for some uses, but the fact is that they're out-ranged by a couple of Russian planes and old-fashioned dogfights are just about non-existent in this war. On the tanks, the M1s were designed as Russian tank killers. Tank battles are also rare. The fact of the matter is Russia has been unable to attain air superiority owing to air defense. I think what would have helped more would have been to furnish more air defense, more Patriots, if possible. However, what we did have aplenty, and easy to learn quickly, were IFVs, and those were very helpful.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I swear, they WANT WWIII

Russia has used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and is seeking Iranian missiles, US says

Russian forces fired at least one of those ballistic missiles into Ukraine on Dec. 30, a White House spokesman said.

apnews.com

 

[Tidewater]

Here is the counter-argument.
Moscow’s War Against Ukraine Results in Fateful Losses on the Home Front
Cracks in the Kremlin edifice.
Full disclosure. I know Paul Goble. Good analyst, a bit on the idealist/liberal side, but a good analyst.

 

[Tidewater]

And then the counterargument.

Miniscule sample size, and leading questions, but you can see the effect of a controlled information environment. Probably a lot of television as the sole source for news. Give the government control of the information environment, and you can almost completely control peoples' minds.

 

[Tidewater]

RUMINT said Valerii Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, had been killed in Ukraine. Sadly, it appears he has not been killed.
More Russian stuff blowing up: No, Gerasimov was not killed in a Ukrainian strike in Crimea
GoBama, note the source.

 

[Go Bama]

RUMINT said Valerii Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, had been killed in Ukraine. Sadly, it appears he has not been killed.
More Russian stuff blowing up: No, Gerasimov was not killed in a Ukrainian strike in Crimea
GoBama, note the source.

I’m not seeing the source. Assuming it’s the NYT???

 

[Tidewater]

Daily Kos.

 

[Tidewater]

Gerasimov is not a genius, but competent, so I have to admit when I first heard the story, I was a little bit hopeful that it was true.
Sadly, Valery Vasilyevich is still with us.

 

[Go Bama]

Daily Kos.

I'm curious as to why you would want me to know the Daily Kos was the source of the article?

 

[Tidewater]

I'm curious as to why you would want me to know the Daily Kos was the source of the article?

To demonstrate that I get my news from a variety of sources (including the Daily Kos).

 

[Go Bama]

G

To demonstrate that I get my news from a variety of sources (including the Daily Kos).

Gotcha. I would not have expected you to be a reader of the Daily Kos.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Oh boy.

Multiple reports surfacing that the Russians are now using AI driven FPV (first person view) drones, apparently the Russians have the advantage here as the Ukrainians are trying to catch up wrt AI guided drones.

"All that is required is to lock on to the target and let the AI fly the FPV drone into the target. All video jamming will do is reduce BDA (bomb damage assessment)."

"Ukrainian Drone related channel reports observing the intercepted video feed from Russian FPV using AI vision for terminal guidance, whilst working in the thermal imaging spectrum."

 

[Tidewater]

Oh boy.

Multiple reports surfacing that the Russians are now using AI driven FPV (first person view) drones, apparently the Russians have the advantage here as the Ukrainians are trying to catch up wrt AI guided drones.

"All that is required is to lock on to the target and let the AI fly the FPV drone into the target. All video jamming will do is reduce BDA (bomb damage assessment)."

"Ukrainian Drone related channel reports observing the intercepted video feed from Russian FPV using AI vision for terminal guidance, whilst working in the thermal imaging spectrum."

Here we go.