Russia invades Ukraine XV

[TIDE-HSV]

The Pentagon is like the Queen Mary, when it comes to agility. If the Pentagon decides it wants a drone, it will take fifteen years and cost fifty times what commercial product would cost, but, on the other hand it will not work as well as the commercial product.

Very true. The face of warfare has changed forever. I think that Cooper's initial intro is an explanation for the stalling of the Ukraine offensive, or at least, with our and our allies' failure/inability to equip them adequately. If his explanation be true, no amount of arty shells or even F-16s would help. It's all with the drones now...

 

[JDCrimson]

Just endless drone terrorism...

Very true. The face of warfare has changed forever. I think that Cooper's initial intro is an explanation for the stalling of the Ukraine offensive, or at least, with our and our allies' failure/inability to equip them adequately. If his explanation be true, no amount of arty shells or even F-16s would help. It's all with the drones now...

 

[Tidewater]

Found this today.

Pre-war experimental evidence that Putin’s propaganda elicited strong support for military invasion among Russians

In February 2021, two Danish scholars conducted polling of Russians. In their study, a neighbouring country (Georgia or Latvia) engaged in “provocations,” ranging from calling Russia “weak,” denying Russian-speaking children a chance to study the Russian language, to the deployment of long-range missile systems. In some vignettes, Putin reacted by issuing a de-escalatory declaration while in others, Putin made an escalatory statement. Polling subjects were asked whether they supported Putin.

“Our results show that the Russian population’s preferences for using military force were highly manipulable. Even a relatively weak, one-time propaganda treatment—particularly in the form of a vaguely described national security threat from a militarily inferior neighboring country—was sufficient to significantly increase public support for war. After reading just one description of such an event, support for using military force against the neighboring country increased from an estimated 8 to 40% among the Russian population. If President Putin adds to this by delivering even a mildly formulated escalating statement, the number increases to 48% overall and to 59% among Putin supporters—with only 15% of Putin’s followers remaining opposed to war.”

Worse, from the NATO perspective, it made little difference to Russians whether the offending country was not a NATO member (e.g. Georgia) or a NATO member (e.g. Latvia).

Since the Kremlin has (and is likely to maintain) near-complete control over the media environment inside Russia, this is a sobering study.

 

[Bodhisattva]

The Pentagon is like the Queen Mary, when it comes to agility. If the Pentagon decides it wants a drone, it will take fifteen years and cost fifty times what commercial product would cost, but, on the other hand it will not work as well as the commercial product.

But, we keep being told by the big government apologists that government bureaucracy is efficient and nimble and policies generate positive returns on their waste. This is so confusing!

 

[JDCrimson]

We just need to all face it. It doesnt matter if we live in Russia or the US, we are all on the menu now to be devoured or manipulated by those with power.

I am encountering it even at work. lf you have leverage you are expected to use it and use it for yourself. Im seeing this behavior at church, at the ballpark, in the line at the grocery store...

If you have political power, you just want to see more of this in society because it enlarges your political power and more normalizes what you do with that power.

Found this today.

Pre-war experimental evidence that Putin’s propaganda elicited strong support for military invasion among Russians

In February 2021, two Danish scholars conducted polling of Russians. In their study, a neighbouring country (Georgia or Latvia) engaged in “provocations,” ranging from calling Russia “weak,” denying Russian-speaking children a chance to study the Russian language, to the deployment of long-range missile systems. In some vignettes, Putin reacted by issuing a de-escalatory declaration while in others, Putin made an escalatory statement. Polling subjects were asked whether they supported Putin.

“Our results show that the Russian population’s preferences for using military force were highly manipulable. Even a relatively weak, one-time propaganda treatment—particularly in the form of a vaguely described national security threat from a militarily inferior neighboring country—was sufficient to significantly increase public support for war. After reading just one description of such an event, support for using military force against the neighboring country increased from an estimated 8 to 40% among the Russian population. If President Putin adds to this by delivering even a mildly formulated escalating statement, the number increases to 48% overall and to 59% among Putin supporters—with only 15% of Putin’s followers remaining opposed to war.”

Worse, from the NATO perspective, it made little difference to Russians whether the offending country was not a NATO member (e.g. Georgia) or a NATO member (e.g. Latvia).

Since the Kremlin has (and is likely to maintain) near-complete control over the media environment inside Russia, this is a sobering study.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Another Don Hill deluge...

Hill I

Hill II

Hill III

 

[Tidewater]

Even I was shocked by this one.
Russian soldiers at the front use bribes to buy vacations and the opportunity not to participate in assaults
"I'd like to sit this attack out, boss. Here is $1,000." or "I want to be wounded (for paperwork purposes), but I do not actually want to be wounded. Here is $5,000." Very Russian.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Even I was shocked by this one.
Russian soldiers at the front use bribes to buy vacations and the opportunity not to participate in assaults
"I'd like to sit this attack out, boss. Here is $1,000." or "I want to be wounded (for paperwork purposes), but I do not actually want to be wounded. Here is $5,000." Very Russian.

These are the clowns we were taught to fear.

 

[Tidewater]

$500-$3,000 for a transfer to a quiet sector.
$5k-$10k for leave.
$10k-$50k for getting certified as "wounded."
Who knew being the commanding officer could be so lucrative?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

It's unbelievable that they can even keep an army in the field. I guess it's just poverty on the part of most - they just can't afford the bribes...

 

[TexasBama]

oops!

Russian major general blown up on landmine on Ukraine front: report

Vladimir Zavadsky was killed in combat on Tuesday, a Ukrainian military officer said.

www.newsweek.com

 

[4Q Basket Case]

oops!

Russian major general blown up on landmine on Ukraine front: report

Vladimir Zavadsky was killed in combat on Tuesday, a Ukrainian military officer said.

www.newsweek.com

I’m torn….is this a real incident, or is a landmine the 2023/4 version of an open window?

 

[Go Bama]

I’m torn….is this a real incident, or is a landmine the 2023/4 version of an open window?

I’ll take door number two.

 

[Tidewater]

Two short articles on where we are in the war.
Peace Unattainable Without Victory in Ukraine
Vladimir Socor is a Russian living in the West, a military think-tank guy.
Clausewitz noted that there is a relationship between the political ends sought and the means devoted (and the pain one's side is willing to endure to achieve those ends). You would think that this would operate in Ukraine's favor. Russia is looking to annex some oblasts and bring a neighbor under its control. If Russia loses, Russia will still exist. If Ukraine loses, Ukraine will cease to exist.

And then the depressing story.
The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems
43 to be exact. Draft/recruit a bunch of old guys, a bunch of young guys die. Math does the rest.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I'm at the point where I don't think Ukraine can win without this becoming a hot war with the US or NATO.

And unless our leaders are stupid, a hot war isn't happening.

 

[Tidewater]

President Biden has been leaning over backwards to not antagonize the Russians, so I think there is limited risk of a hot war with Russia.
Deo gratias.

 

[crimsonaudio]

President Biden has been leaning over backwards to not antagonize the Russians, so I think there is limited risk of a hot war with Russia.
Deo gratias.

And without that, I don't see how Ukraine can win. The numbers just don't add up.

 

[JDCrimson]

I agree none of these 3 models result in peace in Ukraine. Personally, I am for the whipping their ass model. Russia needs to be neutered once and for all...

Tidewater, i think I remember early on in this conflict you saying that Russia wouldnt pause until it had lost 500,000 men. Well it looks like we are on space to surpass that number the end of next year. But it looks like there is still much more bleeding for Russia to experience.

Two short articles on where we are in the war.
Peace Unattainable Without Victory in Ukraine
Vladimir Socor is a Russian living in the West, a military think-tank guy.
Clausewitz noted that there is a relationship between the political ends sought and the means devoted (and the pain one's side is willing to endure to achieve those ends). You would think that this would operate in Ukraine's favor. Russia is looking to annex some oblasts and bring a neighbor under its control. If Russia loses, Russia will still exist. If Ukraine loses, Ukraine will cease to exist.

And then the depressing story.
The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems
43 to be exact. Draft/recruit a bunch of old guys, a bunch of young guys die. Math does the rest.

 

[Tidewater]

Sadly, that was 500,000 dead.
Not going to get there for a while.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I agree none of these 3 models result in peace in Ukraine. Personally, I am for the whipping their ass model. Russia needs to be neutered once and for all...

How? US troop involvement? I'm 100% against sending someone else's kid over there to die.