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Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

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Here are Konstantin Kisin's take on what a good deal for Ukraine looks like.
Kisin is an ethnic Russian who emigrated to Britain as a teenager but no fan of Putin and he cheers Ukraine's achievements.
Who will be the enforcers is a big question. If it is (as some have suggested) Brazilians and Chinese, then I predict complete incapacity to enforce the deal. Lavrov says putting British and French troops on the ground will lead to a dangerous escalation, so Russia is going to have to be nudged off that position.
I agree with Kisin that Ukraine retaining its sovereignty and independence is by far the most important question and that a zone of separation is crucial to maintaining any peace deal.
 
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I've been racking my brain trying to figure out why Putin even entertained the idea of a cease-fire when there doesn't seem to be a clear benefit to Russia. They are literally on the cusp of total victory. The Ukrainian military is collapsing on all fronts. 86% of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has been retaken, and the remaining Ukrainian forces are surrounded. What remains of the Ukrainian military is retreating from the few kilometers of Russian territory still occupied in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions that have been reincorporated into Russia.

Is this about optics? A backroom deal that benefits them financially? Something else? It kinda feels like Putin is lining up in a victory formation at the one-yard line, but I'm no expert so maybe I'm missing something here.
 
CrimsonJazz said:
I've been racking my brain trying to figure out why Putin even entertained the idea of a cease-fire when there doesn't seem to be a clear benefit to Russia. They are literally on the cusp of total victory. The Ukrainian military is collapsing on all fronts. 86% of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has been retaken, and the remaining Ukrainian forces are surrounded. What remains of the Ukrainian military is retreating from the few kilometers of Russian territory still occupied in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions that have been reincorporated into Russia.

Is this about optics? A backroom deal that benefits them financially? Something else? It kinda feels like Putin is lining up in a victory formation at the one-yard line, but I'm no expert so maybe I'm missing something here.
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Put there by trump and his policies.
 
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Bamaro said:
Put there by trump and his policies.
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The Russian's inexorable taking of Ukraine has been ongoing for the last year, at least. I know you want everything to be Trump's fault, but this is purely on Russia. No amount of cash or weapons is going to make up for the Russian man-power advantage across the front - and if you actually believe it would make a material difference, ask yourself why Biden held back on delivering the promised funding and weapons.
 
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crimsonaudio said:
The Russian's inexorable taking of Ukraine has been ongoing for the last year, at least. I know you want everything to be Trump's fault, but this is purely on Russia. No amount of cash or weapons is going to make up for the Russian man-power advantage across the front - and if you actually believe it would make a material difference, ask yourself why Biden held back on delivering the promised funding and weapons.
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I cant speak for Biden and why he acted timidly but trump's actions have been much worse. The right weapons with the right intelligence could harm Putin enough to see him removed. Boots on the ground is not the answer. The answer is increasing the costs to Russia of continuing this mess. Instead, trump is ready to sell Ukraine down the river so he can cozy up to Putin.
 
Bamaro said:
I cant speak for Biden and why he acted timidly but trump's actions have been much worse. The right weapons with the right intelligence could harm Putin enough to see him removed. Boots on the ground is not the answer. The answer is increasing the costs to Russia of continuing this mess. Instead, trump is ready to sell Ukraine down the river so he can cozy up to Putin.
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I think this is pie-in-the-sky thinking, unless you're wanting the US to start direct attacks, which is essentially declaring war with Russia. Ukraine lacks the military tech to really hit deep into Russia and the US isn't going to supply them with ballistic missiles.
 
crimsonaudio said:
I think this is pie-in-the-sky thinking, unless you're wanting the US to start direct attacks, which is essentially declaring war with Russia. Ukraine lacks the military tech to really hit deep into Russia and the US isn't going to supply them with ballistic missiles.
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The weapons supplied to Ukraine should at least be comparable to those used against Ukraine.
 
Shockingly, Russia wants to be able to take the rest of Ukraine without straining...

Speaking at a press conference with Lukashenko, Putin indicates that he will demand demilitarization of Ukraine. He stated that he sees problems with the American 30-day ceasefire proposal accepted by Ukraine, as Kyiv could use it for mobilization & new weapon shipments. He says it would first be necessary to decide how to control this. This means that Russia wants to be able to control to size of Ukraine’s military and how it’s equipped. Russia made similar demands during the peace negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022, which was one of the main reasons for why the Ukrainians pulled out of the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1900218636385575125
 
Huckleberry said:
I’m waiting to hear about the increased sanctions that the USA will place on Russia in order to encourage them to accept the terms of the ceasefire.
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I know most have made up their minds, but we're about to have concrete proof as to whether Trump is really fighting for what he's claimed or not wrt Russia.
 
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He will be exposed on the world stage that not only can he not be trusted he will stab you in the back for surprisingly little in return.

crimsonaudio said:
I know most have made up their minds, but we're about to have concrete proof as to whether Trump is really fighting for what he's claimed or not wrt Russia.
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Well, demilitarization is not going to happen.
Given Putin's initial response, it is time to propose a massive increase of US military aid to Ukraine and time to get creative as to what the US can do to help.
Maybe it is time to start drafting 18-25 yeara old Ukrainians.
 
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...kellogg-special-envoy-barred-talks-rcna195981

Kremlin told U.S. it didn't want Trump's Ukraine-Russia envoy at peace talks
Keith Kellogg “is a former American general, too close to Ukraine. Not our kind of person, not of the caliber we are looking for,” a Russian official told NBC News

President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia was excluded from high-level talks on ending the war after the Kremlin said it didn't want him there, a U.S. administration official and a Russian official tell NBC News.

Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg was conspicuously absent from two recent summits in Saudi Arabia — one with Russian officials and the other with Ukrainians — even though the talks come under his remit.
 
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