Too Much on the QB? DeBoer’s One-Dimensional Offense Problem

[CrimsonTitles]

Also, let's look at Justice Haynes:
2024 Alabama: 448 yards, 5.7 avg
2025 Michigan: 857 yards, 7.1 avg (injured, out for the year)

I predicted he would do well at Michigan by the way. Why the disparity?

Haynes is very talented running back probably more than Miller but he was injured much of last year. Michigan also runs the ball about 60% of the time and has a quarterback that is basically a runner.

I am not sure Haynes would have fared any better this season than what we have. I expected Haynes to have a great year at Michigan too, but nothing to do with us. I just think that their offense is a much better fit for him than ours. I think Dear is the only back who truly fits what we want to run. But then again, we aren't even able to run the way we want yet, because of offensive line personnel.

 

[denver]

I am not sure Haynes would have fared any better this season than what we have. I expected Haynes to have a great year at Michigan too, but nothing to do with us. I just think that their offense is a much better fit for him than ours. I think Dear is the only back who truly fits what we want to run. But then again, we aren't even able to run the way we want yet, because of offensive line personnel.

Running against this opposition helps too

 

[KrAzY3]

Our oline is horrible, utterly horrible. An offensive philosophy doesn't produce this bad of an OL. Bad talent and/or bad coaching does. I dont know if our rbs are average, good or bad because the OL sucks so bad.

I see the two as being linked. The offensive philosophy dictates the coaching. I saw it covered earlier in the year how the offensive line is coached to focus on pass protection. Now we've seen how that fell apart, but there was a stretch earlier in the year where it was holding up well and Ty had more time.

Part of the issue there is once the defenses figure out there's no real running threat, and how one dimensional the offense is they ramped up doing things like overloading the line. That isn't to say the offensive line is good, or the coaching is good, but it's a product of the environment. If he wants to change either, it's not that difficult given the portal.

I decided to look at his OC stop in Indiana and I saw the same trend. 3.7 YPC, and 108 ranked rushing offense. The year before he arrived? 4.4 YPC.

To provide contrast, not once during Saban's tenure did a running team average less than 4 YPC. DeBoer had done it 3 of the last 7 seasons, different schools, different conferences, all regressed running the ball. All ranked outside of the top 100 in YPG and YPC. Either DeBoer is cursed, or it''s something about the system....

I am not sure Haynes would have fared any better this season than what we have. I expected Haynes to have a great year at Michigan too, but nothing to do with us. I just think that their offense is a much better fit for him than ours. I think Dear is the only back who truly fits what we want to run.

The way I see it that's a problem though. If you can't utilize an obviously great running back like Haynes, and if your system needs something so specific, then may be the system is the problem. Then again, as I've outlined there's never been a great DeBoer running team, so what's good for his system isn't necessarily good for running at all, which is the problem as I see it.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

I see the two as being linked. The offensive philosophy dictates the coaching. I saw it covered earlier in the year how the offensive line is coached to focus on pass protection. Now we've seen how that fell apart, but there was a stretch earlier in the year where it was holding up well and Ty had more time.

Part of the issue there is once the defenses figure out there's no real running threat, and how one dimensional the offense is they ramped up doing things like overloading the line. That isn't to say the offensive line is good, or the coaching is good, but it's a product of the environment.

I decided to look at his OC stop in Indiana and I saw the same trend. 3.7 YPC, and 108 ranked rushing offense. The year before he arrived? 4.4 YPC.

To provide contrast, not once during Saban's tenure did a running team average less than 4 YPC. DeBoer had done it 3 of the last 7 seasons, different schools, different conferences, all regressed running the ball. All ranked outside of the top 100 in YPG and YPC. Either DeBoer is cursed, or it''s something about the system....

The way I see it that's a problem though. If you can't utilize an obviously great running back like Haynes, and if your system needs something so specific, then may be the system is the problem. Then again, as I've outlined there's never been a great DeBoer running team, so what's good for his system isn't necessarily good for running at all, which is the problem as I see it.

That doesn't mean the system is a problem. It means Haynes' running style is not a fit for the system. He fits best in a power run scheme. That is what Michigan utilizes, and also what Saban preferred, but that's not how DeBoer likes to run it. We have been running a lot of duo this season due to our personnel, but that's not what we wanna do, and it's clearly not a strength.

 

[JDCrimson]

Mike Leach's teams couldn't run the ball very well in the SEC either. I just dont think the air raid philosophy is effective in the SEC. You have to be able to convert running when it's 3yds or less. These offenses dont demonstrate the ability to do that.

 

[KrAzY3]

That doesn't mean the system is a problem. It means Haynes' running style is not a fit for the system. He fits best in a power run scheme. That is what Michigan utilizes, and also what Saban preferred, but that's not how DeBoer likes to run it. We have been running a lot of duo this season due to our personnel, but that's not what we wanna do, and it's clearly not a strength.

DeBoer doesn't like to run it at all. That's why he only does it about 35% of the time. I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The first time DeBoer has a good running game will be his first.

Mind you, if you like the system and like this efficacy running the ball, then there's nothing to worry about. I don't though, and I am emphatically saying either the system needs to be tweaked or we'll see more of this.

So when I hear someone say he just needs a better fit for his system, honestly that's the problem. This is the SEC, this isn't the west coast. If you can't use a good running back then there's something wrong with what you're doing.

 

[JDCrimson]

EJ Crowell aint coming here to block fire blitzes 8 of 10 snaps...

If Im the AD i would make CKD have a film session with me watching Mike Leach MSU games. And see what reaction you get from CKD...

DeBoer doesn't like to run it at all. That's why he only does it about 35% of the time. I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The first time DeBoer has a good running team will be his first.

Mind you, if you like the system and like this efficacy running the ball, then there's nothing to worry about. I don't though, and I am emphatically saying either the system needs to be tweaked or we'll see more of this.

So when I hear someone say he just needs a better fit for his system, honestly that's the problem. This is the SEC, this isn't the west coast. If you can't use a good running back then there's something wrong with what you're doing.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

DeBoer doesn't like to run it at all. That's why he only does it about 35% of the time. I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The first time DeBoer has a good running game will be his first.

Mind you, if you like the system and like this efficacy running the ball, then there's nothing to worry about. I don't though, and I am emphatically saying either the system needs to be tweaked or we'll see more of this.

So when I hear someone say he just needs a better fit for his system, honestly that's the problem. This is the SEC, this isn't the west coast. If you can't use a good running back then there's something wrong with what you're doing.

The system doesn't need to be tweaked. It's year 2. It takes time to rebuild a roster the way you want to. You don't just start retooling everything because it doesn't work immediately. Gotta have some conviction. Just give the man some time to fully rebuild the roster in his image, and I promise, you will like the results.

 

[KrAzY3]

The system doesn't need to be tweaked. It's year 2. It takes time to rebuild a roster the way you want to. You don't just start retooling everything because it doesn't work immediately. Gotta have some conviction. Just give the man some time to fully rebuild the roster in his image, and I promise, you will like the results.

I hope it's true, I mean I really do. I honestly don't care what he does as long as it's successful, but right now it's like seeing someone trying to play on a bum knee. It just kind of hurts to watch.

I just wish I had something to point to where I could go there, that's what he's going for and it's amazing. His best offense, with 26 fifth and six year seniors and 10 NFL draft picks that year, was still held to 2.3 YPC in the championship game and a total of 13 points. That's the high point of his career and I guess I'm guilty of having Alabama level expectations but that's not something for me to look forward to.

 

[JDCrimson]

You cant run effectively in the SEC with 270# Center. I dont know enough about football but I'm willing to bet that affects the job of every other OL.

 

[CrimsonTheory]

I think Sam Pittman is a priority higher for Bama this off-season. Or if anybody on this site can think of another OL coach that would be a upgrade. The current OL Coach is not getting it done.

 

[TDBama78]

Georgia has now cleaned our clocks for 6 straight quarters going back to halftime of the 1st game this season. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results, OC

 

[PGDocBama]

My concern from the start about DeBoer never really had anything to do with his coaching ability. It had to do with compatibility. Can a west coast finesse approach translate to the SEC? I felt it was a potential mismatch, in terms of Alabama's talent and in terms of Alabama's competition. There's no doubt DeBoer could have a lot of success in the Pac-12, he did. He could do well in the Big 12 as well I'm sure. But, there is the question of can his style offense perform at a championship level within the SEC? To me the answer is a bit muddy, in part because he's doing it with an absolutely loaded team: https://247sports.com/season/2025-football/collegeteamtalentcomposite/

Will he encounter more success once he adapts the team more to his approach, or will it gradually stray from being able to compete at a top level in the SEC? I think the answer is that he can succeed, but he probably needs to adapt more to the SEC than the roster needs to adapt to him. This might sound like I'm trying to throw him under the bus, but in fact part of what I'm doing is trying to defend people like Grubb and Ty, who are trying to run DeBoer's system, and I think under enormous strain in doing so. For the record, I don't think Grubb or DeBoer needs to be fired, but I'm going to delve into the areas that I think they need to adapt.

Let's get Grubb out of the way. I said before he was hired what the offense would look like, and it's not really Grubb's doing, it's DeBoer's doing. DeBoer consistently uses the running backs around 35% of the time (even with Sheridan as OC). It varies slightly, on the broadcast they said they pass 70% of the time, that's not quite accurate, but it would be pretty accurate to say his offenses rely on the quarterback about two thirds of the time. I posted this stat prior to the season, it applies to this season, it's a tendency he has yet to break. As far as Grubb goes, while he's a disciple of DeBoer, he's not actually as rigid in his approach. For instance the year before DeBoer was the head coach at Fresno State (he retained Grubb), Grubb actually broke these tendencies. Fresno St. was hardly a great running team, but they were ranked 69th in rushing and averaged 4.9 per rush, with a nearly even run/pass average. The following year, with the same lead rusher, those numbers/ranks fell to the 108th ranked rushing team and an average of 3.4 per rush. That's the DeBoer effect, not the Grubb effect.

So, how does this look over the course of his career as a head coach?

2019: 69 rank, 4.9 avg (Grubb as OC before DeBoer was coach): Fresno State
2020: 108, 3.4: Fresno State
2021: 91, 4.1: Fresno State
2022: 69, 4.7: Washington
2023: 108, 4.3 (second leading rusher was a receiver): Washington
2024: 47, 4.6 (leading rusher was a quarterback): Alabama
2025 103, 3.7: Alabama

A few take aways, last years numbers were heavily skewed due to Milroe's running numbers. Those are generally scrambles though, not indicative of a "running game" in the traditional sense. This masked the low running back use and otherwise lack of a running game. The other thing to note is the downward trend.

You might not care about how the offense gets their yards, and that's relatable, but I am of the opinion this system relies too much on the QB and in doing so puts too much pressure on the QB. I'm not saying Milroe was a great QB, but I think this system did more to expose his flaws than a team that could run the ball effectively would for instance. Likewise, I believe Ty is being put in an extremely difficult position, playing teams that don't have to respect the run and he often has to try to do too much.

This system is not without it's advantages though. By relying heavily on the QB, I think you can limit the amount of things an offense has to do well in order to win. In doing this, it can raise the floor of the offense. The issue it it also ultimately lowers the ceiling. It asks so much of the quarterback, that it creates a fatal flaw. You stop the QB, affect him, you have a very high chance of success. These teams are just not built to win any other way.

This gets into the question I posed when DeBoer was hired. What is he like without Penix? Penix was a 5th and 6th year senior when he played for DeBoer at Washington, he was also a first round draft pick who has started several games in the NFL. This can't be your expected level of quarterback talent/experience. Here are the splits:

DeBoer with Penix: 25-3
DeBoer without Penix: 31-13 (Haener, Milroe, Simpson)

That's a 89% winning percentage vs a 70% winning percentage.

That's pretty noticeable. Mind you, 70% isn't that bad. True, but Brian Kelly had a 70% winning percentage at LSU and he got fired.

It's not just wins and losses though,the offense was ranked 10th on average with Penix, but only 27th without him. DeBoer wasn't hired to have the 27th ranked offense (Alabama is 26th this year, so in keeping with the trend).

I don't think Ty is the real problem here, I don't think Grubb is the real problem here, I think the system has a really serious flaw built into it. The good news though is that it can be changed. Some adjustments to the staff, some changes in approach, I think they can address the issues by bringing in people that know how to develop and utilize a more balanced offense. Part of what we saw in SECCG was the fish out of water approach of a system that never runs the ball well still trying to run the ball against a team playing the pass.

If real meaningful changes are made, if this issue is addressed I think there's a lot of potential here. The defense is performing well, it's outperformed the offense the past two seasons, which is surprisingly given he was hired as an offensive guru. The passing game to me isn't really the issue either. They just need to bring in the expertise to fix the running game, and I am making the unequivocal argument that it's not really a talent issue, it's a system issue that follows DeBoer. The system can adapt and I for one hope it does.

I like DeBoer and we should keep him and at least give him 2-3 more seasons. Unless, we could straight up trade him for Cignetti at this moment.

Otherwise, I think DeBoer is about as good as we can hope for. For now.