WAB ranking stands for Wins Above Bubble in college basketball (both men’s and women’s). It’s a key metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee to evaluate teams’ resumes, especially for at-large bids and seeding.
What WAB Measures
WAB quantifies how many more (or fewer) wins a team has accumulated against its actual schedule compared to what an “average bubble team” (typically around the NET rank 45 range for recent seasons) would be expected to get against the same schedule.
• It’s a results-based metric (focuses on win/loss outcomes, not margins of victory or efficiency stats like KenPom).
• Positive WAB = The team has outperformed bubble expectations (strong resume booster).
• Negative WAB = Underperformed relative to expectations (hurts resume).
• It complements the NET ranking but often correlates better with actual seeding, as the committee has emphasized in recent years.
How It’s Calculated (Simplified)
For each game:
• Opponent strength is based on NET ratings.
• Location (home/road/neutral) factors in.
• A value between roughly +1 (win vs. strong opponent) and -1 (loss vs. weak opponent) is assigned based on expected win probability for a bubble team.
• Sum these values across all games → WAB = Actual wins - Expected wins vs. bubble baseline.
The NCAA publishes official WAB rankings (updated daily during the season) on their site, alongside NET.
Current Men’s DI WAB Top Examples (as of late February 2026)
From NCAA.com:
1. Michigan (Big Ten) — 10.31
2. Duke (ACC) — 10.28
3. Arizona (Big 12) — 9.99
4. UConn (Big East) — 8.57
5. Michigan State (Big Ten) — 6.82
6. Purdue (Big Ten) — 6.72
7. Houston (Big 12) — 6.67
8. Florida (SEC) — 6.63
(Note: These shift daily; SEC teams like Auburn, Alabama, and Florida often rank high due to tough schedules and strong performance.)
WAB was introduced more prominently in recent seasons (added officially around 2025) and has become a “must-know” stat for bracketology discussions, as it’s less about predictive power and more about resume quality vs. bubble peers. If you’re tracking SEC teams or bubble watch, WAB is often more telling than raw NET for March implications.
Alabama (No. 17/18 in polls, 21-7 overall, 11-4 SEC) plays at Tennessee (No. 22, 20-8 overall, 10-5 SEC) today, Saturday, February 28, 2026, tipping off at 5 p.m. CT / 6 p.m. ET on ESPN from Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville. It’s a big SEC road game with implications for seeding in the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament resume strength.
Alabama’s current Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is 6.25, ranking them No. 13 nationally (per the latest NCAA WAB rankings). Tennessee sits at 4.35 (around No. 20 nationally). Both are solidly in at-large territory as SEC locks, but this game matters for boosting (or protecting) their resumes in the final stretch.
WAB Impact Breakdown
WAB rewards results against schedule strength—especially Quadrant 1 (Q1) games like this one (road vs. top-50 NET opponent; Tennessee is currently NET ~20, Alabama ~19-21 range). A high-major road win in the SEC is hugely valuable.
• If Alabama wins (at Tennessee):
• This is a strong Q1 road win against a ranked, top-25 NET team in a tough environment.
• Expect a solid bump of roughly +0.8 to +1.2 (or more) in WAB, depending on exact opponent strength adjustments. It could push Alabama closer to top-10 nationally in WAB and solidify/improve their case for a protected seed (e.g., 3-seed range in projections).
• Alabama has been hot (7 straight wins recently), and results-based metrics like WAB already rank them as one of the SEC’s top teams. A win here reinforces that and adds resume quality over quantity.
• If Alabama loses (at Tennessee):
• A road loss to a fellow top-25 team isn’t disastrous—it’s still a Q1 game, and bubble/expectation models account for competitiveness.
• WAB hit would be minimal (maybe -0.3 to -0.6 drop or less), as losses to strong opponents don’t tank it much (unlike bad losses to weaker teams).
• It would prevent a boost and might keep Alabama in the 3-4 seed discussion rather than climbing higher, but they’re still very safe as an at-large (SEC strength helps).
In short: A Bama win today is a big positive swing for their WAB and overall seeding case (potentially moving them up in committee eyes), while a loss is more neutral/protective—no major damage in this matchup. Tennessee would see the reverse: win boosts their WAB nicely for better seeding, loss hurts their push.
Top 25 National WAB Rankings
1. Michigan (Big Ten) — 10.31
2. Duke (ACC) — 10.28
3. Arizona (Big 12) — 9.99
4. UConn (Big East) — 8.57
5. Michigan State (Big Ten) — 6.82
6. Purdue (Big Ten) — 6.72
7. Houston (Big 12) — 6.67
8. Florida (SEC) — 6.63
9. Kansas (Big 12) — 6.59
10. Iowa State (Big 12) — 6.54
11. Nebraska (Big Ten) — 6.36
12. Illinois (Big Ten) — 6.35
13. Alabama (SEC) — 6.25
14. Virginia (ACC) — 6.07
15. Gonzaga (WCC) — 5.67
16. Texas Tech (Big 12) — 5.49
17. Vanderbilt (SEC) — 5.05 (approximate placement based on recent data; exact may vary slightly post-games)
18. Arkansas (SEC) — 4.98 (approximate)
19. North Carolina (ACC) — 4.77 (approximate)
(The top 12-13 are directly confirmed from NCAA sources; ranks 17+ extend into the 4.0+ range with other high-major teams filling in, but SEC entries like Vanderbilt and Arkansas appear in bubble/resume discussions around here. Full top 25 isn’t always exhaustively detailed beyond the leaders, but these are the standout ones.)
The Big Ten has a massive presence at the top, followed by Big 12 and ACC, with the SEC showing strong in Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.
All SEC Teams and Their National WAB Ranks
The SEC is loaded with at-large locks thanks to the conference’s elite strength, but WAB highlights resume quality:
• Florida — National rank 8 (6.63) — SEC leader by a good margin
• Alabama — National rank 13 (6.25)
• Vanderbilt — National rank ~17 (5.05)
• Arkansas — National rank ~18 (4.98)
• Tennessee — Mid-20s range (positive WAB, strong but below the top SEC tier in recent bubble metrics)
• Kentucky — ~26 (positive, around bubble/should-be-in discussions)
• Georgia — ~37 (positive but lower, in the “should be in” mix)
• Auburn — Lower positive/near neutral (e.g., around 42 in some contexts, bubble concerns noted)
• Missouri — Mid-to-lower positive (e.g., around 58 in some bubble updates)
• Others (e.g., Texas A&M, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi State) — Generally positive but mid-to-lower tier (30-60+ range), with many in “in the mix” or fringe bubble status depending on recent results.
These can shift with late-season games (e.g., any from February 28 slate like Alabama @ Tennessee would update post-game—check NCAA.com for real-time refresh). Florida leads the SEC clearly, giving them a top-tier seeding case, while Alabama remains strong in the protected seed conversation.
What WAB Measures
WAB quantifies how many more (or fewer) wins a team has accumulated against its actual schedule compared to what an “average bubble team” (typically around the NET rank 45 range for recent seasons) would be expected to get against the same schedule.
• It’s a results-based metric (focuses on win/loss outcomes, not margins of victory or efficiency stats like KenPom).
• Positive WAB = The team has outperformed bubble expectations (strong resume booster).
• Negative WAB = Underperformed relative to expectations (hurts resume).
• It complements the NET ranking but often correlates better with actual seeding, as the committee has emphasized in recent years.
How It’s Calculated (Simplified)
For each game:
• Opponent strength is based on NET ratings.
• Location (home/road/neutral) factors in.
• A value between roughly +1 (win vs. strong opponent) and -1 (loss vs. weak opponent) is assigned based on expected win probability for a bubble team.
• Sum these values across all games → WAB = Actual wins - Expected wins vs. bubble baseline.
The NCAA publishes official WAB rankings (updated daily during the season) on their site, alongside NET.
Current Men’s DI WAB Top Examples (as of late February 2026)
From NCAA.com:
1. Michigan (Big Ten) — 10.31
2. Duke (ACC) — 10.28
3. Arizona (Big 12) — 9.99
4. UConn (Big East) — 8.57
5. Michigan State (Big Ten) — 6.82
6. Purdue (Big Ten) — 6.72
7. Houston (Big 12) — 6.67
8. Florida (SEC) — 6.63
(Note: These shift daily; SEC teams like Auburn, Alabama, and Florida often rank high due to tough schedules and strong performance.)
WAB was introduced more prominently in recent seasons (added officially around 2025) and has become a “must-know” stat for bracketology discussions, as it’s less about predictive power and more about resume quality vs. bubble peers. If you’re tracking SEC teams or bubble watch, WAB is often more telling than raw NET for March implications.
Alabama (No. 17/18 in polls, 21-7 overall, 11-4 SEC) plays at Tennessee (No. 22, 20-8 overall, 10-5 SEC) today, Saturday, February 28, 2026, tipping off at 5 p.m. CT / 6 p.m. ET on ESPN from Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville. It’s a big SEC road game with implications for seeding in the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament resume strength.
Alabama’s current Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is 6.25, ranking them No. 13 nationally (per the latest NCAA WAB rankings). Tennessee sits at 4.35 (around No. 20 nationally). Both are solidly in at-large territory as SEC locks, but this game matters for boosting (or protecting) their resumes in the final stretch.
WAB Impact Breakdown
WAB rewards results against schedule strength—especially Quadrant 1 (Q1) games like this one (road vs. top-50 NET opponent; Tennessee is currently NET ~20, Alabama ~19-21 range). A high-major road win in the SEC is hugely valuable.
• If Alabama wins (at Tennessee):
• This is a strong Q1 road win against a ranked, top-25 NET team in a tough environment.
• Expect a solid bump of roughly +0.8 to +1.2 (or more) in WAB, depending on exact opponent strength adjustments. It could push Alabama closer to top-10 nationally in WAB and solidify/improve their case for a protected seed (e.g., 3-seed range in projections).
• Alabama has been hot (7 straight wins recently), and results-based metrics like WAB already rank them as one of the SEC’s top teams. A win here reinforces that and adds resume quality over quantity.
• If Alabama loses (at Tennessee):
• A road loss to a fellow top-25 team isn’t disastrous—it’s still a Q1 game, and bubble/expectation models account for competitiveness.
• WAB hit would be minimal (maybe -0.3 to -0.6 drop or less), as losses to strong opponents don’t tank it much (unlike bad losses to weaker teams).
• It would prevent a boost and might keep Alabama in the 3-4 seed discussion rather than climbing higher, but they’re still very safe as an at-large (SEC strength helps).
In short: A Bama win today is a big positive swing for their WAB and overall seeding case (potentially moving them up in committee eyes), while a loss is more neutral/protective—no major damage in this matchup. Tennessee would see the reverse: win boosts their WAB nicely for better seeding, loss hurts their push.
Top 25 National WAB Rankings
1. Michigan (Big Ten) — 10.31
2. Duke (ACC) — 10.28
3. Arizona (Big 12) — 9.99
4. UConn (Big East) — 8.57
5. Michigan State (Big Ten) — 6.82
6. Purdue (Big Ten) — 6.72
7. Houston (Big 12) — 6.67
8. Florida (SEC) — 6.63
9. Kansas (Big 12) — 6.59
10. Iowa State (Big 12) — 6.54
11. Nebraska (Big Ten) — 6.36
12. Illinois (Big Ten) — 6.35
13. Alabama (SEC) — 6.25
14. Virginia (ACC) — 6.07
15. Gonzaga (WCC) — 5.67
16. Texas Tech (Big 12) — 5.49
17. Vanderbilt (SEC) — 5.05 (approximate placement based on recent data; exact may vary slightly post-games)
18. Arkansas (SEC) — 4.98 (approximate)
19. North Carolina (ACC) — 4.77 (approximate)
(The top 12-13 are directly confirmed from NCAA sources; ranks 17+ extend into the 4.0+ range with other high-major teams filling in, but SEC entries like Vanderbilt and Arkansas appear in bubble/resume discussions around here. Full top 25 isn’t always exhaustively detailed beyond the leaders, but these are the standout ones.)
The Big Ten has a massive presence at the top, followed by Big 12 and ACC, with the SEC showing strong in Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.
All SEC Teams and Their National WAB Ranks
The SEC is loaded with at-large locks thanks to the conference’s elite strength, but WAB highlights resume quality:
• Florida — National rank 8 (6.63) — SEC leader by a good margin
• Alabama — National rank 13 (6.25)
• Vanderbilt — National rank ~17 (5.05)
• Arkansas — National rank ~18 (4.98)
• Tennessee — Mid-20s range (positive WAB, strong but below the top SEC tier in recent bubble metrics)
• Kentucky — ~26 (positive, around bubble/should-be-in discussions)
• Georgia — ~37 (positive but lower, in the “should be in” mix)
• Auburn — Lower positive/near neutral (e.g., around 42 in some contexts, bubble concerns noted)
• Missouri — Mid-to-lower positive (e.g., around 58 in some bubble updates)
• Others (e.g., Texas A&M, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi State) — Generally positive but mid-to-lower tier (30-60+ range), with many in “in the mix” or fringe bubble status depending on recent results.
These can shift with late-season games (e.g., any from February 28 slate like Alabama @ Tennessee would update post-game—check NCAA.com for real-time refresh). Florida leads the SEC clearly, giving them a top-tier seeding case, while Alabama remains strong in the protected seed conversation.
