Every year is different but the committee told us last year with SMU that the CG loss will not keep you out.
They wanted SMU in no matter what and were going to find a way to justify it. Plus, SMU only had 2 losses after that CCG stumble. I'm still not convinced the committee will put in a 3-loss non-conference champ if there are any viable options still on the table. "Viable" for them is whatever they want to make up.
these tiebreakers are confusing.
So UGA is essentially a lock for the SEC championship based on what im seeing above? if the season ended today it would be UGA vs TAMU?
Honestly asking
UGA is not essentially a lock. More scenarios favor Alabama over UGA as long as Bama beats Auburn, even if TAMU wins out.
Yes, if the season were over today, it would be TAMU vs UGA, but only because UGA has played 8 conference games and we have not. 7-1 is better than 6-1. But that ain't realistic since the season is not over. Frankly, anyone saying "if the season were over today" is talking nonsense, and it is a waste of time. UGA is done with conference games; they control nothing at this point.
This site is great to see the different scenarios:
https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb
Here is a video that explains all the scenarios if you don't want to play with them yourself:
All we need is for Vandy to beat UK, and Bama to win the IB. That locks us in no matter what else happens.
Here are the scenarios for each team:
TAMU:
- Beat Texas, or
- AU beats Bama and Miss. St. beats Ole Miss
Alabama:
- Beat AU and Vandy beats UK, or
- Beat AU and Miss. St. beats Ole Miss, or
- Beat AU and Texas beats TAMU, or
- Beat AU and UcheaT beats UF, plus Mizz. beats Ark., or Vandy beats UcheaT
- Beat AU and UF beats UcheaT, and Mizz beats Ark, and Vandy beats UcheaT
UGA:
- AU beats Bama
- Texas beats TAMU
- UF beats UcheaT, and UK beats Vandy, and Ark. beats Mizz.,
- UcheaT beats UF, and UK beats Vandy, and Texas beats Ark., and Ark. beats Mizz.
Ole Miss:
- Beat Miss. St., and Texas beats TAMU, and AU beats Bama
EDIT - A few of the scenes in the video are wrong; I have corrected them above, as far as I can tell. Lots of football to be played. Basically, beat AU and it would take some weird chaos to keep us out.
EDIT 2: I keep finding mistakes in the scenarios. It's hard to keep track of the crazier you get. I think what I have now is correct, but there might be a few other mixes of wins and losses that shift teams around.