QB Competition 2018

[B1GTide]

Since Blake Sims name has been brought up I went back and watched highlights of him from several 2014 games. Several things jumped out at me:.

Truncated your post-
I don't remember Sims going through progressions the way that you describe, but I'll take your word for it because I simply don't have the time or inclination to go back and watch the games again. Highlights don't tell the story - I would have to watch the entire games. Either way, my point is that Jalen is not standing in the pocket, and that is destroying pass plays.

 

[gtgilbert]

There's a major omissions there, I'm not saying you did it deliberately but a lot of posters here were well aware of it (including B1G) because we discussed it several times...

Last year Kiffin gave Hurts a steady diet of underneath stuff. It wasn't all he threw, I defended him in pointing it out, but the steady complaint about Hurts was that his numbers last year were inflated by the short throws which padded his stats. There was no denying it helped to, since it accounted for something like 900 yards in the passing game. Daboll basically ripped that up and threw it away (I question the wisdom of doing that). You also conveniently only posted completions and yards, which is part of the story. Either cherry picking or just missing the big picture.

Here's his passer rating for those games (looks a bit different doesn't it? I stuck with your list):
2017:
FSU: 118.7
LSU: 123.6
Miss. State: 186.8
Auburn: 112.3
Statistically inaccurate average: 135.35


2016:
LSU: 89.4
Florida: 129.5
Washington: 84.2
Clemson: 88.1
Statistically inaccurate average: 97.8

If you can't see that he's improved, yes even against good defenses, it's because you simply refuse to see that. Daboll is asking him to do more though, which I would argue is probably too much. Anyway, if we're going to judge Hurts we need to do it fairly.

Edit: (I'm not going to figure out the actual passer rating formulas and average it, but I posted an approximation of his average for comparison sake). I'd also add that I think the playcalling situation hurts his performance against Clemson and Washington, but the improvement as a passer still shows up against better passing defenses (which LSU and Miss. State both are). One last addition. Last year people were saying he plateaued, this year people are saying he plateaued. I'm guessing this true sophomore has yet to actually plateau.

You keep saying that part in bold, but it's not at all true. We still run a ton of WR screens, Daboll brought in more variation and opened things up and doubled the underneath passing to the RBs. We used the TE in the underneath middle and with better route variety significantly more than Kiffen ever did (although not consistently and not for as many total touches). We even still run the jet sweep every once and a while, just not as often as Kiffen did.

In fact, CFB analyzed all this halfway through the season, (they excluded the 'tap pass'/jet sweeps) and 64% of Jalen's pass attempts are UNDER 10 yards with 26.4 being behind the LOS. That's the exact opposite of throwing away the short game. His completion rate in that under 10 yard range is a great 80%. The challenge is that the focus on the behind the LOS game works against lesser opponents who back their CBs off the Wrs to keep from getting beat. Our better opponents don't do that -they play the CB up in press, and if they start to get beat still can get close enough to at least commit PI to prevent the TD (twice on Ridley against AU)

Get beyond 10 yards and things aren't nearly as good. Intermediate passing from 10-20 was pretty good at 60%, but the overall completion rate was only 36% past 10 yards. Past 20 yards - ONLY 11%. That's another reason our better opponents play up and in press, making the underneath stuff harder to maintain...

Article with the stats here: https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/a...en-hurts-still-struggling-complete-deep-ball/

 

[B1GTide]

On WR screens, Alabama is missing one key thing - Stewart's blocking. You do not have a WR who can block a decent DB on those screen plays. Stewart was a beast on those plays.

 

[B1GTide]

You keep saying that part in bold, but it's not at all true. We still run a ton of WR screens, Daboll brought in more variation and opened things up and doubled the underneath passing to the RBs. We used the TE in the underneath middle and with better route variety significantly more than Kiffen ever did (although not consistently and not for as many total touches). We even still run the jet sweep every once and a while, just not as often as Kiffen did.

In fact, CFB analyzed all this halfway through the season, (they excluded the 'tap pass'/jet sweeps) and 64% of Jalen's pass attempts are UNDER 10 yards with 26.4 being behind the LOS. That's the exact opposite of throwing away the short game. His completion rate in that under 10 yard range is a great 80%. The challenge is that the focus on the behind the LOS game works against lesser opponents who back their CBs off the Wrs to keep from getting beat. Our better opponents don't do that -they play the CB up in press, and if they start to get beat still can get close enough to at least commit PI to prevent the TD (twice on Ridley against AU)

Get beyond 10 yards and things aren't nearly as good. Intermediate passing from 10-20 was pretty good at 60%, but the overall completion rate was only 36% past 10 yards. Past 20 yards - ONLY 11%. That's another reason our better opponents play up and in press, making the underneath stuff harder to maintain...

Article with the stats here: https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/a...en-hurts-still-struggling-complete-deep-ball/

A more recent look at Jalen's passing stats, before the MSU game, showed that he is a much better passer down the field as long as he is passing from the middle over to his right. He is a terrible passer to the far left side of the field - terrible. This is almost certainly a footwork problem - he probably is not squaring his shoulders and setting his feet when he throws, so that means that he is throwing across his body - no leverage. But from the middle over he is a very good passer, but only when he is not flushed from the pocket.

 

[Con]

On WR screens, Alabama is missing one key thing - Stewart's blocking. You do not have a WR who can block a decent DB on those screen plays. Stewart was a beast on those plays.

Yes. The young guys don’t block near as well as Stewart did.


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[dvldog]

We still run a ton of WR screens, Daboll brought in more variation and opened things up and doubled the underneath passing to the RBs. We used the TE in the underneath middle and with better route variety significantly more than Kiffen ever did (although not consistently and not for as many total touches). We even still run the jet sweep every once and a while, just not as often as Kiffen did.

Didn't see much of this against the Barn. But I could have been wiping tears off my face at the time.

 

[Saban4Ever]

I will mention one minor point as well. Daboll is technically Co-OC with Locksley. We also have Dan Werner as Offensive Analyst and Chris Weinke on staff too. All of which come from different offensive pedigrees. I can see where we just have a hodge podge offense letting everyone sprinkle their own preferences into the playbook.

Another thing, maybe I shouldn't be, but I am worried out our recruiting momentum right now. I go over to that forum regularly and it's relatively stone cold for information. It just feels eerily quiet to me compared to past years. I get we have a small class, etc but that shouldn't account for the dramatic drop in information.

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I know it's early, but I am wondering about our recruiting also. Hopefully, this won't be a trend. It seems Georgia and Clemson and now Auburn are getting many of our targets.

 

[BamaMoon]

Since I've been using it as an example, how exactly would Hurts take too much on himself with a jet sweep? If Daboll calls a quick enough developing play that's simple enough, Hurts is going to have to get rid of the ball. If Hurts is actually just outright insubordinate, than that's another issue and must be addressed. But the longer the plays take to develop the more "say" Hurts has in what occurs. I said several games ago I wanted Hurts to run less and be "forced" to throw the ball more. That's all I'm calling for now really, and I kind of expect that to be what Daboll ends up doing.

Really, you don't know how this could be happening????

Of course there are some plays they are predetermined like the occasional Jet-sweep or a quick flair pass to the flats, but the reason Jalen has been the qb is because of his running ability.

We run alot of RPO. So "option" is the key word here and it puts alot of responsiblity on him to make the right decision to hand the ball off when the read demands such. Also, since his legs are his strength when he stands in the pocket he had to decide to pass or run...another "option."

I'm not judging his motives, but it would be very easy for his teammates to do so if they believe JH is making himself the "option" instead of letting them help the team with their incredible abilities too.

Just for comparison sakes, this is where Tua would be a welcomed changed in the passing game. His strength is to throw it not run it. In doing so, he would undoubtedly be able to distribute the ball better and more often than Jalen currently does.

 

[mlh]

The highlights on Blake were interesting. I loved seeing his running plays. At the time I thought we ought to run him more. He was really quick. It was also interesting to see so many snaps from under center. It seems like every play this year, the QB has been in the shotgun or pistol - even on short yardage plays. That doesn't make sense to me. You need 1/2 yard and you begin the play by snapping the ball 4 yards into the backfield. It even forces the runner to hesitate before hitting the hole. If the QB is under center, the RB can take off as soon as the ball is snapped and get the hand off 1-2 yards deep instead of 4, plus he's already has some forward momentum.

As for Blake's passing, there are a lot of good plays on the highlights. Of course, they're 'highlights,' so they should all be good. But I did notice that an awful lot of them did go to Cooper.

 

[Con]

Really, you don't know how this could be happening????

Of course there are some plays they are predetermined like the occasional Jet-sweep or a quick flair pass to the flats, but the reason Jalen has been the qb is because of his running ability.

We run alot of RPO. So "option" is the key word here and it puts alot of responsiblity on him to make the right decision to hand the ball off when the read demands such. Also, since his legs are his strength when he stands in the pocket he had to decide to pass or run...another "option."

I'm not judging his motives, but it would be very easy for his teammates to do so if they believe JH is making himself the "option" instead of letting them help the team with their incredible abilities too.

Just for comparison sakes, this is where Tua would be a welcomed changed in the passing game. His strength is to throw it not run it. In doing so, he would undoubtedly be able to distribute the ball better and more often than Jalen currently does.

This is where I really think we are too predictable. If we would spread the ball around more, the defenses couldn't lock in on one guy.

 

[BamaMoon]

The highlights on Blake were interesting. I loved seeing his running plays. At the time I thought we ought to run him more. He was really quick. It was also interesting to see so many snaps from under center. It seems like every play this year, the QB has been in the shotgun or pistol - even on short yardage plays. That doesn't make sense to me. You need 1/2 yard and you begin the play by snapping the ball 4 yards into the backfield. It even forces the runner to hesitate before hitting the hole. If the QB is under center, the RB can take off as soon as the ball is snapped and get the hand off 1-2 yards deep instead of 4, plus he's already has some forward momentum.

As for Blake's passing, there are a lot of good plays on the highlights. Of course, they're 'highlights,' so they should all be good. But I did notice that an awful lot of them did go to Cooper.

I was discussing my growing detest for this qb/rb exchange a couple of days ago with another board member.

The option exchange that occurs in the backfield with our pistol not only makes the play start deeper in the backfield, but it also takes a second or two for the qb to read the defense and make the "option" to give or keep.

I know this has to be accounted for on the OL, but that also means our lineman have to essentially hold their blocks that much longer too.

I sometimes long for the days of seeing a qb under center and taking the snap and pitching it to a back on a student body sweep right or left (remember Bobby Humphrey???) or the qb just taking the snap and handing to the running back hitting the hole at full speed.

 

[KrAzY3]

We run alot of RPO. So "option" is the key word here and it puts alot of responsiblity on him to make the right decision to hand the ball off when the read demands such. Also, since his legs are his strength when he stands in the pocket he had to decide to pass or run...another "option."

And my point is if there's an issue you take away that option. I understand the problem, but I have been saying they are putting too much responsibility in his hands. Yes of course they're not going to completely abandon a lot of the stuff we're discussing, like the RPO or slower developing routes. But I have been calling, for quite a while actually, to force his hand some more. He's still a true sophomore, he shouldn't have as much control of the offense as they've given him. He's not the play caller, Daboll is. I'd hope Daboll is more qualified, so the more plays that Daboll can draw up that rely less on Hurts to decide and is more what Daboll decides, the better.

I'm been looking at some stats, and the conclusion I've reached actually is that Alabama has done better when their quarterbacks were relied upon to do less.

 

[skrayper77]

^THIS^

We have the talent to go either way, but we have to commit to one philosophy or the other. Both Jalen and Tua are very talented, but in different ways. It's obvious who should be the QB...once you decide what your offensive identity will be.

Agreed. Personally, I would love a pro style offense with Bo and Harris lined up in the backfield on some plays, and single back sets with Harris. Tua would be the better fit, but if we could get 25-30 passes a game, our WRs would be pretty happy too.

 

[CoachJeff]

Sims was a much better passer. He had the quickest release of any of the QBs we've had under Saban. He was also the quickest runner, though that's just a competition between him and Hurts really.
'
Kiffin ran some regular read option stuff for Sims, but that was about it.

Kiffin really adopted triple option concepts for Hurts last year. In the Tennessee game last year was ran a bunch of inverted veer plays, something I don't ever remember running for Sims.

I think if Kiffin had run last year's offense with Sims we would have been unstoppable that year.

 

[Intl.Aperture]

For a refresher here is Blake Sims career day against Florida. I'm not posting this to boost Sims because I think all of Sims game, the good and the bad, is on display here.
THE GOOD
His release is unbelievably fast. His deep ball accuracy and touch passes are incredible. His pocket awareness is also VERY good, despite taking one really bad sack. He stands in the pocket and throws the ball and scrambling truly is a last ditch effort to save the play. The ball was often out of his hand very fast. He was very accurate on slants and underneath routes as well.
THE BAD
We all knew that he had a tendency to lock on to one receiver at times and reject the progressions because of pre-snap confidence in his read and his receiver. He was bailed out of this tendency by superior receiving talent from time to time. When he threw the ball with velocity on intermediate routes he had a tendency to be off target. He has way more turnovers than Hurts because he took way more risks with the ball than Hurts. This game had a lot of turnovers, 1 being the ill advised side-arm screen pass that was deflected and picked off. With the way our offense was executing the game should have been 52-7.

So this video is not posted to support one player over another or even to compare play calling styles (though one could because THIS is the sort of offense that Lane Kiffin runs in his dreams.) But more to examine the intangibles of Blake's play compared to other QB's in our system. Watch the WAY Blake plays and look at the way he runs the offense.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

On WR screens, Alabama is missing one key thing - Stewart's blocking. You do not have a WR who can block a decent DB on those screen plays. Stewart was a beast on those plays.

Part of that is build. Ardarius was signed as an athlete and was a QB in HS. He came much closer to being built like Julio than our current crop, who, though agile and quick, are mostly much wirier on the whole...

 

[KrAzY3]

While I find it frustrating that Jalen Hurts is the new whipping boy, it is nice to see Blake Sims being spoken of so fondly. Some people bashed him for years, I got so tired of defending him, but he didn't deserve all the negativity.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

It's hurt us already, materially. How many WRs want to sign up for what was on the field on Saturday? I think we're out of the top 10 for the first time in a long time...

I do wonder if Saban begins to hear this on the recruiting trails?

 

[BamaMoon]

And my point is if there's an issue you take away that option. I understand the problem, but I have been saying they are putting too much responsibility in his hands. Yes of course they're not going to completely abandon a lot of the stuff we're discussing, like the RPO or slower developing routes. But I have been calling, for quite a while actually, to force his hand some more. He's still a true sophomore, he shouldn't have as much control of the offense as they've given him. He's not the play caller, Daboll is. I'd hope Daboll is more qualified, so the more plays that Daboll can draw up that rely less on Hurts to decide and is more what Daboll decides, the better.

I'm been looking at some stats, and the conclusion I've reached actually is that Alabama has done better when their quarterbacks were relied upon to do less.

But the reason JH was selected last year to be the starter is because he apparently was going to be used to run the RPO better than Blake Barnett.

We don't really know how good of a passer Barnett would have been. Sounds like practice was a big play or bad play sequence with Barnett so the staff went with the "safer" option in JH.

But now that defenses have been able to scheme against Jalen's strength of running the RPO and now, after two years, it's obvious he not going to beat great teams throwing the ball all over the field, they can scheme even better to stop his running.

So we are at a "fork in the road." If Jalen's passing was catching up to his running abilities, we wouldn't be having this discussion at all. We'd probably be talking about how he's the perfect qb that can pass and throw and no one could stop it (and we'd be riding about a 25 game winning streak).

But that's not the reality. We've got teams loading up to stop what we do the best and daring us to do what we don't do well. And the skill players all around JH are not being used; whether running backs or receivers because now it seems we've doubled down on hurts as a runner instead of a passer.

So what do you do to fix it? You say take some of the "options" away from JH. But that is exactly why the decision to use him was made. The "bet" (experiment) was he's a great runner and hopefully he'll get better as a passer. So to take away his running options takes away his greatest strength.

There's only one thing that can help Jalen be a better qb. He's got to improve as a passer. Not just percentages, qbr, accuracy, pre-snap reads, progressions...he's got to put it all together OR his running skills become a liability and an easy way to gameplan against us. I think that's where we are right now.

 

[CoachJeff]

I worry Hurts may turn into JT Barrett, and that's not a good thing.