Russia Invades Ukraine IX

[TIDE-HSV]

My button popped up automatically. I guess I added it a while ago. Now the pages are translated to English automatically.

Install the plug-in through the menus in chrome

1. Click the Settings button.
2. Select "More Tools"
3. Select "Extensions"
4. Search for "Google Translate"
5. Click the Add to Chrome button.

Download Google Translate for Chrome for Windows - Free - 2.0.16

Download Google Translate for Chrome for Windows & read reviews. Free extension webpage translation.

downloads.digitaltrends.com

Perhaps others who are more PC literate can offer more help.

I'm embarrassed. I had already added it to my context menu. All I had to do was right-click anywhere on the page and select "auto-translate," and it was instantaneous...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Back to the content, this is fascinating reading. Add it to the antique weapons Russia has hauled out and their now risk-averse tactics, their launching missiles from afar and avoiding Ukraine's airspace and it makes all of the recent Kremlin bluster pretty transparent. If they can't rain down an iron curtain of artillery and missiles, IDK how they can keep advancing...

 

[Tidewater]

Back to the content, this is fascinating reading. Add it to the antique weapons Russia has hauled out and their now risk-averse tactics, their launching missiles from afar and avoiding Ukraine's airspace and it makes all of the recent Kremlin bluster pretty transparent. If they can't rain down an iron curtain of artillery and missiles, IDK how they can keep advancing...

As I have pointed out before, a mechanized division goes through trainloads of ammo (especially artillery ammo) daily (and the Russians have multiples of division-equivalents fighting in Ukraine).
That means stockpiling ammo, which means stockpiles of ammo, which, by their nature, are liable to explode. Given slipshod Russian safety procedures, they are likely to explode on their own. Add a few HIMARS rounds, and the exploding becomes more common. This in turn means either (a) spreading ammo dumps out and intensifying the transportation effort or (b) slowing down the artillery consumption.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

As I have pointed out before, a mechanized division goes through trainloads of ammo (especially artillery ammo) daily (and the Russians have multiples of division-equivalents fighting in Ukraine).
That means stockpiling ammo, which means stockpiles of ammo, which, by their nature, are liable to explode. Given slipshod Russian safety procedures, they are likely to explode on their own. Add a few HIMARS rounds, and the exploding becomes more common. This in turn means either (a) spreading ammo dumps out and intensifying the transportation effort or (b) slowing down the artillery consumption.

Their military seems extraordinarily hidebound and institutionalized. The very idea of taking out that many senior officers that close to the front, all together...

 

[JDCrimson]

So is this not the best time to attack if you are UKR?

As I have pointed out before, a mechanized division goes through trainloads of ammo (especially artillery ammo) daily (and the Russians have multiples of division-equivalents fighting in Ukraine).
That means stockpiling ammo, which means stockpiles of ammo, which, by their nature, are liable to explode. Given slipshod Russian safety procedures, they are likely to explode on their own. Add a few HIMARS rounds, and the exploding becomes more common. This in turn means either (a) spreading ammo dumps out and intensifying the transportation effort or (b) slowing down the artillery consumption.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

So is this not the best time to attack if you are UKR?

UA has done a better job of dispersing than RFA. I'd like to think some of that's owing to NATO training ...

 

[Tidewater]

So is this not the best time to attack if you are UKR?

In the Great War, a French officer said, "artillery conquers, infantry occupies."
I think that still applies, especially in the Russian context. The Russians bombard the crap out of a place, and the infantry occupies the rubble.
Rooting those Russians out of a piece of terrain once occupied, however, is another matter. It does not take a lot of Russian artillery for the Russians to retain a piece of land (although, obviously, it helps).
Thus, the fact that the Russians are momentarily low on arty ammunition (and arty ammunition throughput) does not make the Ukrainian task that much easier. The Russians still have to be pried out of their trenches which, since about 1914, has been a tough proposition.

 

[BamaFlum]

In the Great War, a French officer said, "artillery conquers, infantry occupies."
I think that still applies, especially in the Russian context. The Russians bombard the crap out of a place, and the infantry occupies the rubble.
Rooting those Russians out of a piece of terrain once occupied, however, is another matter. It does not take a lot of Russian artillery for the Russians to retain a piece of land (although, obviously, it helps).
Thus, the fact that the Russians are momentarily low on arty ammunition (and arty ammunition throughput) does not make the Ukrainian task that much easier. The Russians still have to be pried out of their trenches which, since about 1914, has been a tough proposition.

And the Ukrainians don’t have an unlimited supply of boots on the ground to a accomplish that.

 

[Tidewater]

And the Ukrainians don’t have an unlimited supply of boots on the ground to a accomplish that.

Exactly. The war is asymmetric in this way as well.
This is why I have felt since the beginning that the Ukrainians best play was to employ partisans in the Russian rear areas to make occupation too painful for the Russian military.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Exactly. The war is asymmetric in this was as well.
This is why I have felt since the beginning that the Ukrainians best play was to employ partisans in the Russian rear areas to make occupation too painful for the Russian military.

I'm reading they're doing just that, particularly in the Kherson region...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Here's Cooper's latest installment. It's long, but, about halfway through, there's a chart with the ordnance breakdown between Russia and Ukraine. It's very interesting...

Tom Cooper

 

[TIDE-HSV]

It's obvious that the Russians are retaliating for the destruction of their supply dumps by spraying missiles over into central and western Ukraine. Vinnytsia just hit. 22 civilians dead, including 3 children...

 

[Tidewater]

I found this. While the author admits the wild range of projections (e.g. number of tubes, rate of expenditure, rate of replacement, amount lost through Ukrainians hitting field ammunition points), he does give an educated guess. He estimates the Russians can keep this rate of arty use up until March 2023.
He is correct in his assessment that (a) high intensity combat consumes enormous amounts of artillery ammunition and (b) moving ammo further back means further stretching very limited Russian transportation assets, so consumption rates will have to drop.

 

[J0eW]

Here's the link to the google translated version: https://gagadget-com.translate.goog...l=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

I somehow got this to translate, but not sure how. I operate on an empath process when it comes to computers. Many times I stumble into the light without knowing how I got there.

Many thanks for the help. Somehow, it is working. I will charge forward. A little Kipling seems appropriate.


Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I somehow got this to translate, but not sure how. I operate on an empath process when it comes to computers. Many times I stumble into the light without knowing how I got there.

Many thanks for the help. Somehow, it is working. I will charge forward. A little Kipling seems appropriate.


Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Yesterday, I was receiving the usual six digit code for MFA, with the cell on speaker. I anticipated each digit, pressing just before it came over the speaker. My wife, standing behind me, said "How do you do that?" I just answered "Don't ask me"...

 

[4Q Basket Case]

It appears that Putin is betting he can outlast the EU. I guess we'll see.

Will Republicans Cut Off Ukraine?

"America-first Republicans overwhelmingly say they do not support helping Ukraine because they don’t support long-term help for a foreign government."

From the Putin wing of the Republican party...

Rather than the Ukrainians, I wonder if Putin might be trying to outlast the Democratic majority in Congress?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I found this. While the author admits the wild range of projections (e.g. number of tubes, rate of expenditure, rate of replacement, amount lost through Ukrainians hitting field ammunition points), he does give an educated guess. He estimates the Russians can keep this rate of arty use up until March 2023.
He is correct in his assessment that (a) high intensity combat consumes enormous amounts of artillery ammunition and (b) moving ammo further back means further stretching very limited Russian transportation assets, so consumption rates will have to drop.

I hate to say it, and I really appreciate his efforts, and I won't say GIGO, but it is more SWAG>SWAG. There's just too much evidence of stretched Russian resources, recommissioning practically antique artillery, etc. And he almost brushes HIMARS' effect aside, in general. Longer range missiles are in the pipeline for Ukraine which pushes the Russian supply lines much further back. I'd be surprised if Russia is still keeping up this rate of bombardment through next March...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Rather than the Ukrainians, I wonder if Putin might be trying to outlast the Democratic majority in Congress?

I think they're counting on it...

 

[BamaFlum]

Rather than the Ukrainians, I wonder if Putin might be trying to outlast the Democratic majority in Congress?

Part of that thinking isn’t bad. Many Americans are hurting and seeing billions sent oversees isn’t helping back home. In addition, just dumping money into Ukraine invites corruption. Do we need to help the Ukrainians? Absolutely, but maybe a more judicious way of doing that. I don’t have the answers but there has got to be a way to help over sees without just dumping billions. (I would like to see more countries step up and offer to pay the check.)

 

[J0eW]

Part of that thinking isn’t bad. Many Americans are hurting and seeing billions sent oversees isn’t helping back home. In addition, just dumping money into Ukraine invites corruption. Do we need to help the Ukrainians? Absolutely, but maybe a more judicious way of doing that. I don’t have the answers but there has got to be a way to help over sees without just dumping billions. (I would like to see more countries step up and offer to pay the check.)

Aren't these weapon transfers an opportunity to clear the surplus of aging stockpiled munitions?