Russia Invades Ukraine IX

[TIDE-HSV]

Interesting article. If the author is right, the next 45 days could get really interesting.

He mentions threats of nuclear weapons escalating as the predicted collapse unfolds. I’ve expressed surprise that Putin hasn’t already used tactical nukes. Whether he actually does so when he perceives nothing left to lose will be critical.

While it’s far from a certainty, you have to think this is a reasonably predictable possibility, and NATO has agreed on a response.

Surely to goodness we wouldn’t be caught off guard by the Russians tossing a tactical nuke. And I wouldn’t put the odds at zero that they’d use a strategic nuke on, say Kyiv.



I had a teacher and later close friend who was a decorated combat artillery man in Vietnam. He said that it was impossible to win a war when “the people,” didn’t support it.

Being young and having most of my experience shaped by media coverage of domestic protests against the Vietnam war, it never occurred to me that he meant anything other than the US citizenry. I was wrong.

By, “the people,” my friend was referring to the people of Vietnam. As in, if the people of Vietnam didn’t support us, we couldn’t win. To hear my friend tell it, the significant majority of Vietnamese, especially those not in big cities, perceived Americans as just another group of round-eyes causing problems. English, French, American….all the same to them.

Point of all this being, there is a history of militarily superior armies losing wars because the local citizenry was intent on making their lives hard. US in Vietnam, Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and possibly now Russia in Ukraine.

I agree that damaging railroad tracks is more an annoyance to the Russians than anything else — with practice, they’ll get proficient at quick repairs. I don’t know whether eastern Ukraine has a material number of rivers. But if they do, it’ll be interesting to see if partisans start blowing up bridges.

They've started. I look for them to pay another HIMARS visit to this one...

PBS

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Interesting article in WaPo about the dilemma in deciding which and how much of weapons systems to send to them. Probably paywalled...

WaPo

 

[Tidewater]

Interesting article. If the author is right, the next 45 days could get really interesting.

He mentions threats of nuclear weapons escalating as the predicted collapse unfolds. I’ve expressed surprise that Putin hasn’t already used tactical nukes. Whether he actually does so when he perceives nothing left to lose will be critical.

While it’s far from a certainty, you have to think this is a reasonably predictable possibility, and NATO has agreed on a response.

Surely to goodness we wouldn’t be caught off guard by the Russians tossing a tactical nuke. And I wouldn’t put the odds at zero that they’d use a strategic nuke on, say, Kyiv.



I had a teacher and later close friend who was a decorated Ranger combat artillery man in Vietnam. He said that it was impossible to win a war when “the people,” didn’t support it.

Being young and having most of my experience shaped by media coverage of domestic protests against the Vietnam war, it never occurred to me that he meant anything other than the US citizenry. I was wrong.

By, “the people,” my friend was referring to the people of Vietnam. As in, if the people of Vietnam didn’t support us, we couldn’t win. To hear my friend tell it, the significant majority of Vietnamese, especially those not in big cities, perceived Americans as just another group of round-eyes causing problems. English, French, American….all the same to them.

Point of all this being, there is a history of militarily superior armies losing wars because the local citizenry was intent on making their lives hard. US in Vietnam, Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and possibly now Russia in Ukraine.

I agree that damaging railroad tracks is more an annoyance to the Russians than anything else — with practice, they’ll get proficient at quick repairs. I don’t know whether eastern Ukraine has a material number of rivers. But if they do, it’ll be interesting to see if partisans start blowing up bridges.

Eastern Ukraine has a few rivers, but not many big ones. East of the Dnieper, the next big(-ish) one is the Donets.

East of that is the Don, in Russia.
The problem with destroying bridges over the Donets River is that most of that river is in the "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Kremlin proxies there cleared out all of the people insufficiently pro-LPD/DPR. If someone spoke Ukrainian or voiced opinions favorable towards Kyiv, someone would visit that person at home and strongly suggest they move west out of the LPR or DPR. Thus, there are not many pro-Kyiv Ukrainians in the area, only pro-Kremlin Russians would would rat out any bridge demo team.
A similar process has probably happened in the newly Russian occupied territory, except Ukrainians did not wait to be invited to leave.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Eastern Ukraine has a few rivers, but not many big ones. East of the Dnieper, the next big(-ish) one is the Donets.
View attachment 26964
East of that is the Don, in Russia.
The problem with destroying bridges over the Donets River is that most of that river is in the "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Kremlin proxies there cleared out all of the people insufficiently pro-LPD/DPR. If someone spoke Ukrainian or voiced opinions favorable towards Kyiv, someone would visit that person at home and strongly suggest they move west out of the LPR or DPR. Thus, there are not many pro-Kyiv Ukrainians in the area, only pro-Kremlin Russians would would rat out any bridge demo team.
A similar process has probably happened in the newly Russian occupied territory, except Ukrainians did not wait to be invited to leave.

I don't think it happened to that degree in Kherson...

 

[UAH]

They've started. I look for them to pay another HIMARS visit to this one...

PBS

Watched a report within the last week on the German "PzH 2000 self-propelled gun" . Apparently they have also received some SMArt 155 rounds with it that will be lethal for Russian armor. If they will (can) get enough of these in trained Ukrainian hands the two systems will drastically swing the artillery battle to Ukraine's advantage.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Watched a report within the last week on the German "PzH 2000 self-propelled gun" . Apparently they have also received some SMArt 155 rounds with it that will be lethal for Russian armor. If they will (can) get enough of these in trained Ukrainian hands the two systems will drastically swing the artillery battle to Ukraine's advantage.

If a dozen can make this much difference, doubling it would make for a huge advantage for Ukraine. I'm not sure why we're dragging it out so...

 

[Tidewater]

I don't think it happened to that degree in Kherson...

I think you are right. That explains why so much partisan activity is happening around Kherson.

 

[Tidewater]

I don't think it happened to that degree in Kherson...

I was just thinking, the same process might have happened in reverse: ethnic Russians or Kremlin supporters in Ukraine being invited to move east to the LPR or DPR.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I was just thinking, the same process might have happened in reverse: ethnic Russians or Kremlin supporters in Ukraine being invited to move east to the LPR or DPR.

The interesting thing is so many Russian-speakers consider themselves Ukrainian, through and through. Here's Cooper's daily take, a little more pessimistic...

Tom Cooper

 

[81usaf92]

The ISW map, showing areas of partisan activity.
The large area around Melitopol I had heard of Tokmak, I had not. There is an area around Energodar, which seems plausible, since partisans can he resupplied by water there.
There are a couple of small pockets of partisan activity around Velykye Burluk, Sievierodonetsk, and Kremninna in the north, and Kokhovka, Kherson and the Kherson airport in the southwest.
Overall, I assess that as way too little activity, way too dispersed to achieve the strategic objectives of ejecting the Russians from Ukraine.
This is a snapshot in time, not the final picture. To be effective, however, there is going to need to be a steady stream of Russian bodybags coming out of Donbas. Every Russian occupier needs to feel like he is living under the muzzle of a Ukrainian gun.

The partisan warfare in Ukraine in the 1940’s should be replicated as much as possible if they plan to succeed.

 

[81usaf92]

Corruption concerns re: Ukraine



Something tells me this might come up in the Jimmy Dore Show tonight.

Jimmy Dore is a TYT crazy. One that was even too stupid for Cenk in the long run. He is the bozo that the Dallas shooter claimed that influenced him in assaulting police officers. So his opinion probably ranks about on par with Alex Jones imo.

 

[Tidewater]

The partisan warfare in Ukraine in the 1940’s should be replicated as much as possible if they plan to succeed.

There were a number of factors that fed the Soviet partisan movement, not the least of which was the enormous cauldron battles in western Belarus and western Ukraine in July and August 1941. Hundreds of thousands of Red Army soldiers were cut off from Soviet front lines. Many were captured and died of hunger in German POW camps, but many faded into the woods and marshes to form the core of the partisan movement. Civilians joined as well, but the core was isolated Red Army soldiers, who came to the partisan movement armed and trained. There were probably stockpiles of arms and weapons as well (not intended for partisan use, but pressed into service to arm partisans once the Germans overran western Belarus and western Ukraine).
Neither of those conditions likely apply in the Russian rear areas within Ukraine.
It is possible that the Ukrainian government cached some weapons and ammo, and selected, vetted, trained, and prepositioned partisans in eastern Ukraine (I would have), but if they did, that info is probably very close-hold.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

There were a number of factors that fed the Soviet partisan movement, not the least of which was the enormous cauldron battles in western Belarus and western Ukraine in July and August 1941. Hundreds of thousands of Red Army soldiers were cut off from Soviet front lines. Many were captured and died of hunger in German POW camps, but many faded into the woods and marshes to form the core of the partisan movement. Civilians joined as well, but the core was isolated Red Army soldiers, who came to the partisan movement armed and trained. There were probably stockpiles of arms and weapons as well (not intended for partisan use, but pressed into service to arm partisans once the Germans overran western Belarus and western Ukraine).
Neither of those conditions likely apply in the Russian rear areas within Ukraine.
It is possible that the Ukrainian government cached some weapons and ammo, and selected, vetted, trained, and prepositioned partisans in eastern Ukraine (I would have), but if they did, that info is probably very close-hold.

I hope so. However, Zelensky seemed to be in denial right up to invasion, so IDK...

 

[Tidewater]

I hope so. However, Zelensky seemed to be in denial right up to invasion, so IDK...

Maybe. On the other hand, maybe Zelensky's subordinates were taking prudent precautions even though the president was skeptical they would be needed.
I small investment of time and expense before hostilities can pay great dividends after hostilities start.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Maybe. On the other hand, maybe Zelensky's subordinates were taking prudent precautions even though the president was skeptical they would be needed.
I small investment of time and expense before hostilities can pay great dividends after hostilities start.

They did seem to be prepared to defend Kyiv...

 

[Tidewater]

They did seem to be prepared to defend Kyiv...

True. Surrounding a target airfield with manpads and mechanized forces is a way to waste some decent airborne troops.
I guess the Russians were easy to template. I'd wager Gerasimov looked at Russians in Ukraine and saw Americans toppling Saddam.

 

[Tidewater]

They did seem to be prepared to defend Kyiv...

Also, I would say that cacheing weapons and ammo (in limited quantities) before hostilities is probably not terribly expensive.
More importantly, recruiting, vetting, and maybe training potential partisans is a lot easier and cheaper before hostilities than after they start. You recruit a young man from Kherson, then investigate whether he is married to a Russian national, or has been visited by the GRU, or some such. That is a whole lot cheaper before the shooting starts. Not doing that beforehand will mean that a Russian mole will infiltrate your partisan band and rat the members out to the Russian occupying army.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Also, I would say that cacheing weapons and ammo (in limited quantities) before hostilities is probably not terribly expensive.
More importantly, recruiting, vetting, and maybe training potential partisans is a lot easier and cheaper before hostilities than after they start. You recruit a young man from Kherson, then investigate whether he is married to a Russian national, or has been visited by the GRU, or some such. That is a whole lot cheaper before the shooting starts. Not doing that beforehand will mean that a Russian mole will infiltrate your partisan band and rat the members out to the Russian occupying army.

Which was a continuing problem during WWII for the French resistance...

 

[Tidewater]

Which was a continuing problem during WWII for the French resistance...

That is the most cost-effective way to defeat partisans. Get someone inside.
Preventing this takes a lot of vetting, and even with vetting, it is not guaranteed you will catch the mole.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

That is the most cost-effective way to defeat partisans. Get someone inside.
Preventing this takes a lot of vetting, and even with vetting, it is not guaranteed you will catch the mole.

And it's not just moles. A number of partisan groups were defeated by the Germans identifying someone they suspected as being likely and bringing pressure until they cracked and gave up their comrades...