Russia Invades Ukraine pt XII

[crimsonaudio]

What Happened In Vuhledar? A Battle Points To Major Russian Military Problems

More than two weeks after a major clash between Russian and Ukrainian forces, details are slowly emerging as to what exactly happened earlier this month in the small coal-mining town in southeastern Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

Holy crap, the russkies got their donkeys handed to them!

 

[crimsonaudio]

Ukraine war: Blinken says China might give weapons to Russia

The US said China was considering "lethal support" for Russia in Ukraine - a claim denied by Beijing.

www.bbc.com

China best tread carefully here.

 

[Go Bama]

Other than the drain on the world economy, I don't see what China has to gain by helping the Russians.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Cooper on the Bakhmut situation...

Cooper - Bakhmut

 

[crimsonaudio]

Cooper on the Bakhmut situation...

Cooper - Bakhmut

I still can't get past how terrifically the Ukrainians are fighting against the russkies. I know they've been gifted a ton of firepower, tech, etc., but their will to take it to this supposed 'superpower' is pretty astonishing.

 

[TexasBama]

this supposed 'superpower'

If Russia didn't have nukes, they would Mexico of the East

 

[crimsonaudio]

If Russia didn't have nukes, they would Mexico of the East

But we (the average citizen) didn't know this 12 months ago. The assumption was that if / when they wanted to Russia would take whatever they wanted over there.

I suspect even some of our own intelligence has been surprised at the ineptitude the russkies have displayed.

 

[TexasBama]

But we (the average citizen) didn't know this 12 months ago. The assumption was that if / when they wanted to Russia would take whatever they wanted over there.

I suspect even some of our own intelligence has been surprised at the ineptitude the russkies have displayed.

Our intelligence services have historically overrated Russian capabilities more than the AP has overrated Oklahoma football

 

[TexasBama]

Cooper on the Bakhmut situation...

Cooper - Bakhmut

Good to see Russian artillery getting splattered

 

[Tidewater]

But we (the average citizen) didn't know this 12 months ago. The assumption was that if / when they wanted to Russia would take whatever they wanted over there.

I suspect even some of our own intelligence has been surprised at the ineptitude the russkies have displayed.

The Russians did not cover themselves with glory in the First Chechen War, but rebounded in the second. Not great, but good enough to win.
The Russians did not perform well against the Georgians in 2008, but good enough to win. But the entire "war" only lasted eight days.
The Russians performed well enough in support of the separatists in the LPR and DPR, but the locals provided the bulk of the manpower and the Russians the technical equipment and manpower.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Russians did not cover themselves with glory in the First Chechen War, but rebounded in the second. Not great, but good enough to win.
The Russians did not perform well against the Georgians in 2008, but good enough to win. But the entire "war" only lasted eight days.
The Russians performed well enough in support of the separatists in the LPR and DPR, but the locals provided the bulk of the manpower and the Russians the technical equipment and manpower.

I think the impact of massive thievery was underestimated...

 

[Tidewater]

I think the impact of massive thievery was underestimated...

I agree. Still, the Russians tend to rebound adequately.
This offensive does not seem to be going well from the Kremlin's perspective.

 

[Go Bama]

I agree. Still, the Russians tend to rebound adequately.
This offensive does not seem to be going well from the Kremlin's perspective.

I can't think of anything that has gone well for the Russians since the war started. Russia is a shell of a country.

 

[Tidewater]

I can't think of anything that has gone well for the Russians since the war started. Russia is a shell of a country.

Made more so by the shenanigans of Mr. Putin.

 

[2003TIDE]

I still can't get past how terrifically the Ukrainians are fighting against the russkies. I know they've been gifted a ton of firepower, tech, etc., but their will to take it to this supposed 'superpower' is pretty astonishing.

We have given them lots of tech, but I’m amazed at Ukrainian ingenuity. Between their use of off the shelf drones for grenade attacks and targeting to their development of artillery targeting smart phone apps to enable “non-combatants” to call in artillery strikes. This war is going to be studied for years and years and the Ukrainians have single handedly change the definition of “modern” warfare IMO.

 

[TexasBama]

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.

www.yahoo.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.

www.yahoo.com

Such a shame, when the majority of Belarusians want nothing to do with becoming Russians...

 

[4Q Basket Case]

At this point, it’s pretty clear that the Russians have only the nuclear card left to play.

They’ve proven historically incompetent at training, equipping and employing soldiers in a conventional manner, no matter how many they have at their disposal.

So far, they’ve been good only at killing their own criminals — and then only to the extent that their public tolerates. Which is a lot.

The next few months will be highly interesting. Will the Russkies play the nuclear card? If they do, what will NATO’s response be? IOW, will it help them (the Russians)?

If the Russians don’t play the nuclear card, can they survive? Depends on whether they bleed materially fewer 18-35 year olds than the Ukrainians.

My personal opinion is that helping the Ukrainians now is far, far less expensive — in terms of money, blood and hard military assets — than not helping them, and dealing with the Russians later.

 

[Tidewater]

Revealed: Leaked document shows how Russia plans to take over Belarus

The document, written for Putin’s Presidential Administration, envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia by 2030.

www.yahoo.com

The Union State was proposed in the 1990s as a "soft rebuild" of the USSR. This was during Yeltsin's declining years, so Lukashenka thought, "Why not? When Yeltsin kicks the bucket, maybe I can become the head of the Union State." Well, Yeltsin, on his way off the stage, annointed Putin. Then suddenly, Lukashenka, preferring to be the president of an independent country (Belarus) to be a governor of the Union State province of Belarus, started dragging his feet and throwing procedural stumbling blocks in the path of Union State integration.
Fast forward to 2020. The Belarusian people reacted strongly to Lukashenka's fraudulent "election" and Lukashenka needed muscle, so he turned to Putin, even though they dislike each other.
The article states that "Belarus has been lorded over for three decades by a reliable Russian ally in the form of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko."
I do not think Putin would describe Lukashenka that way. Now, Putin can control him because he needs Russian military and police might to stay in power, but the relationship has been rocky since 2000.

 

[crimsonaudio]

At this point, it’s pretty clear that the Russians have only the nuclear card left to play.

They’ve proven historically incompetent at training, equipping and employing soldiers in a conventional manner, no matter how many they have at their disposal.

So far, they’ve been good only at killing their own criminals — and then only to the extent that their public tolerates. Which is a lot.

The next few months will be highly interesting. Will the Russkies play the nuclear card? If they do, what will NATO’s response be? IOW, will it help them (the Russians)?

If the Russians don’t play the nuclear card,, can they survive? Depends on whether they bleed materially fewer 18-35 year olds than the Ukrainians.

My personal opinion is that helping the Ukrainians now is far, far less expensive — in terms of money, blood and hard military assets — than not helping them, and dealing with the Russians later.

I think history will look back on the invasion of Ukraine as the straw that broke the camel's back. Putin wanted to rebuild the USSR, but I think he'll essentially just FF to the end of the union.

A desperate Russia combined with China in decline make for a very dangerous next decade or two.