Russia invades Ukraine XV

[BamaFlum]

Army is working on a small EMP weapon to handle drones and electronic warfare.

Technology for Innovative Entrepreneurs & Businesses | TechLink

techlinkcenter.org

 

[Go Bama]

I mean, even a shotgun isn't helpful if the enemy can build thousands, millions of AI driven drones. They could release a thousand drones to attack a group of soldiers and only a handful have to detonate on target to do tremendous damage.

Those drone video are terrifying as it appears that more often than not the drone wins the encounter - and that's 1:1. Wait until some starts releasing these things at a 2:1 ratio (or greater)...

All the drone videos I’ve seen where a drone attacks an individual have a second drone filming the attack. There’s nothing to keep them from attacking at the same time. An individual soldier would have almost no chance of surviving.

I agree that the future of warfare is even more terrifying than before.

 

[JDCrimson]

Could we get the drone to land on a powerline to get a shot at it?

Well, you have to trade off the probability of hitting the drone against the projectile having enough kinetic energy to damage the drone.
Of course the alternative is dying.

 

[JDCrimson]

Maybe they should invent locust drones (very small and fast) or hornet drones that have a swarming technique. Smaller drone munitions would seem to be harder for larger artillery to suppress.

Maybe even fire ant drones to attack dug infantry?

Army is working on a small EMP weapon to handle drones and electronic warfare.

Technology for Innovative Entrepreneurs & Businesses | TechLink

techlinkcenter.org

 

[crimsonaudio]

Maybe they should invent locust drones (very small and fast) or hornet drones that have a swarming technique. Smaller drone munitions would seem to be harder for larger artillery to suppress.

Maybe even fire ant drones to attack dug infantry?

I'd bet my entire house that all of that (and more) is in development as we speak.

 

[TexasBama]

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Tidewater]

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.yahoo.com

I'm not sure what that means. The Russians draft twice a year and between conscripts, contractniki, NCOs and officers, they probably lose half their soldiers every year.

 

[Tidewater]

Saw this today on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
“I’d rather die here at home than die there.” Mobilized from Bashkortostan refused to return to the front
Bashkorastan is between the Volga and the Urals. Mostly muslim republic.
Th article presents the views of a refusenik. Guy got mobilized, went to Ukraine, came home on leave and refused to go back.

 

[TexasBama]

I'm not sure what that means. The Russians draft twice a year and between conscripts, contractniki, NCOs and officers, they probably lose half their soldiers every year.

I take it as the russian headcount at the beginning of the invasion, minus casualties.

 

[JDCrimson]

My guess is Russia started the Adiivka offensive with 2 expectations 1) further military appropriations would not be forthcoming from NATO countries specifically the US, and 2) to force Ukraine to draw down on the military support already received leaving Ukraine near defenseless over the winter season. Russia is shaping the war to position Ukraine into a losing position during the presidential election season.

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

www.yahoo.com

 

[crimsonaudio]

CNN: Europe isn’t giving Ukraine the consistency it needs right now

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I take it as the russian headcount at the beginning of the invasion, minus casualties.

That’s how I’ve seen this sort of thing calculated in the past. It’s how a given unit can have 150% casualties. Started out with 100 men. Took 150 casualties. Some of the 150 were replacements. Some were original Day 1 members.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

That’s how I’ve seen this sort of thing calculated in the past. It’s how a given unit can have 150% casualties. Started out with 100 men. Took 150 casualties. Some of the 150 were replacements. Some were original Day 1 members

That's correct. My brother's wing had 300% casualties during WWII. However, I think that included the 1943 suicide phase, when they were sending in B-17s with no fighter escort. I think his plane lost two gunners...

 

[twofbyc]

 

[NationalTitles18]

SIAP.

This channel has some great videos on things you guys might be interested in.

 

[Tidewater]

That’s how I’ve seen this sort of thing calculated in the past. It’s how a given unit can have 150% casualties. Started out with 100 men. Took 150 casualties. Some of the 150 were replacements. Some were original Day 1 members.

My point is this.
Without a war, the Russian army loses 50% of its army every year as conscripts finish their tours and go home. Over two years, that amounts to 75%.
In a war, if a conscript with one month on his tour gets killed in Kharkov and is replaced by a new conscript what is the net loss to the Russian army?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My point is this.
Without a war, the Russian army loses 50% of its army every year as conscripts finish their tours and go home. Over two years, that amounts to 75%.
In a war, if a conscript with one month on his tour gets killed in Kharkov and is replaced by a new conscript what is the net loss to the Russian army?

I don't think we'll ever get honest stats out of there. We just know it's heavy because of their tactics. Beyond that, it's guesswork...

Edit: Also, there are numerous reports coming out of Russia not honoring the termination of conscript contracts...

 

[Tidewater]

I don't think we'll ever get honest stats out of there. We just know it's heavy because of their tactics. Beyond that, it's guesswork...

Probably true.
What I was getting at is that the 87% figure needs context. Even without a war, the Russian army is going to "lose" 75% of its army every two years.
The more important figure is total military deaths. figures I saw last summer said around 80,000 since Feb 2022. Since then, it has probably climbed to 100,000.
Zeihan says it takes a stimulus of 500,000 dead to cause Russian society to convulse. In other words, we have a long way to go yet before Russian citizens say, "Enough!"

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Probably true.
What I was getting at is that the 87% figure needs context. Even without a war, the Russian army is going to "lose" 75% of its army every two years.
The more important figure is total military deaths. figures I saw last summer said around 80,000 since Feb 2022. Since then, it has probably climbed to 100,000.
Zeihan says it takes a stimulus of 500,000 dead to cause Russian society to convulse. In other words, we have a long way to go yet before Russian citizens say, "Enough!"

The early signs of "enough" are starting to make an appearance. From following the battle reports, I suspect it's far in excess of 100K, but far short of 500K...

 

[Bazza]