First off, I think a lot of what we are seeing is the byproduct of NIL, the transfer portal, the expanded playoff - and the increased parity that you'll continue to see with those dynamics at play. A lot of folks have used the term "NFL Lite" and I think that's exactly what college football is becoming. The powers that be are getting their wish. CNS said at the beginning of this season that the NFL's dream is for every team to be 8-8 at the end of the year - all the fans are still engaged and playoff hopes are still alive, and revenue keeps flowing in. At the end of the day, that's what this is really all about. The days of an elite group of 10-15 teams dominating the sport year in and year out are probably coming to a close.
As far as our team goes: I understand the frustration that comes with a loss on the road to Vandy and a struggle win against an average South Carolina team. We've had 16 years of mostly dominance and frankly have become a very spoiled fan base.
Here's my take: a drop-off after the retirement of the greatest coach in the modern era was inevitable. The team looks messy at times. Raw talent all over the place, but not a ton of consistency. I think the fact that we are 5-1 with a blowout road win against Wisconsin and a home win against UGA is still a lot to celebrate. The issues that have reared their head in the last couple of weeks are fixable for the most part, but this team was never going to run the table. Too much inexperience at key spots coupled with wholesale changes in offensive and defensive schemes, and a really tough schedule to boot. I think it's way too premature to make definitive judgements about this coaching staff. I'd take our 5-1 record any day over what we're seeing this season from say, Florida State or Auburn.
At this point in time in the Dubose and Shula regimes, the wheels had already started to completely come off and we had home losses to teams like Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois. I had the misfortune of being in the stands for both of those games. Neither of those guys had a single minute of head coaching experience prior to Alabama, so I don't think the comparisons are relevant. DeBoer might have a learning curve ahead of him, but this is far from his first rodeo. His career record is indicative of a guy who knows how to win. It's a different style than we are accustomed to, but in the long run he may end up being a guy that's much more suited to the modern game. Too soon to say, but to compare him to Shula and Dubose is ridiculous in my opinion.
I think we still probably drop another couple of games this year from the group of Tennessee, LSU, Mizzou and Oklahoma. All four of those teams have different sets of issues and all four are very beatable, but three of them being on the road doesn't help. Two more losses puts us at 9-3 which is exactly where I had us going into this season. Probably on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned, but in my opinion this was never going to be a playoff team. I know it's not the standard we are accustomed to, but a 9-win regular season with the kind of wholesale changes we've seen, following the retirement of a legend, is nothing to snub your nose at. My overall message is to give our staff time before rushing to judgement.
I'll leave you with this: records of major programs in the year after replacing a long-term coaching legend (in the relatively modern era, 1980 and on):
Alabama 1983: 8-4 (Ray Perkins)
Florida State 2010: 10-4 (Jimbo Fisher)
Oklahoma 1989: 7-5 (Gary Gibbs)
Southern Cal 2010: 8-5 (Lane Kiffin)
Georgia 1989: 6-6 (Ray Goff)
Penn State 2012: 8-4 (Bill O'Brien)
Michigan 1990: 9-3 (Gary Moeller)
Tennessee 1993: 10-2 (Phillip Fulmer)
Florida 2002: 8-5 (Ron Zook)
Auburn in 1993 produced an undefeated team, but I would add an asterisk given how the remainder of Terry Bowden's tenure turned out coupled with the overall decline you'd seen in the last few seasons of Pat Dye's tenure.
It's just hard to do, folks. If we finish 9-3 with a win over Auburn and at least one victory over either Tennessee or LSU, I would be elated and would consider it a great success.