Alabama opens as a 2.5 point road favorite against LSU

[cdub55]

This would help us greatly in the SEC tiebreaker scenarios

We hold our own destiny when it comes to CFBPF. What everyone else does is mostly irrelevant. We need to win out.

 

[cdub55]

I’m glad you posted this early on. A popular misconception is that Vegas not only predicts margins of victory, but somehow does so with such uncanny accuracy that few individuals can outperform with any degree of regularity. Not so on either account. Vegas merely forecasts where the balance of betting money will fall. And when they see the bets coming in, they adjust accordingly to maintain that balance. Their skill is in predicting bettor behavior. It is the consensus of the betting public that is uncannily accurate to the degree that any one individual can rarely outperform the consensus with regularity.

As for the game, I never know what to expect from this team, particularly on offense. If first half vs Georgia shows up (you know - with milroe decisively slinging darts with accuracy) no team in the country can outscore us. But if the milroe from vandy, South Carolina and Tennessee shows up, it’s going to be a long night. We need to commit to the run also. We’ve got a stable of backs that are outstanding, some of the best in the country. The run/pass balance vs Tennessee was atrocious. By the time we’d faced Missouri, looks like we’d figured that out and corrected the problem. Got to take some of the heat and pressure off of milroe, who’s getting double-spied to take away his legs. If we’re leaning too heavily on the passing game on a night when milroe is inaccurate and his legs are nullified by defensive spies, well, we’re toast. Vandy beat us with its ball control inside option, which we seemed ill-prepared for. Our offense barely saw the field.

Yes and no. Every week there are lines that are befuddling. Money will be 90%+ on one side and a crazy upset happens. They love having money 50/50 but they also aren't dummies.

 

[cdub55]

Thanks.
Bottom line is he is a capable quarterback (not the second coming of Peyton Manning, but capable) if given the time to read a defense and throw. I hope he does not get an opportunity to read Bama's defense and make throws.

Agreed he is capable but world's apart from Jayden Daniels...

 

[Tidewater]

Agreed he is capable but world's apart from Jayden Daniels...

Absolutely. That guy was tough to beat. Exceptional player. Glad he is gone.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I won’t be surprised to see Ole Miss win.

Looking at both teams I wouldn't be either. But looking at both coaching staffs I just don't have a lot of faith in Lane or Golding in this kind of game.

 

[colbysullivan]

We hold our own destiny when it comes to CFBPF. What everyone else does is mostly irrelevant. We need to win out.

We don’t control our own destiny for the playoff. The only way to do that is to win the SEC, which we don’t control at this point.

 

[BamaBoySince89]

We don’t control our own destiny for the playoff. The only way to do that is to win the SEC, which we don’t control at this point.

Exactly. Winning out helps but we need some big help as well.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

The first college football playoff poll comes out tonight so we will know ehat the real rankings are. There is nothing else newsworthy happening tonight.

 

[dxtide]

We don’t control our own destiny for the playoff. The only way to do that is to win the SEC, which we don’t control at this point.

If we win out, we are in, that is the definition of controlling your own destiny

 

[cbi1972]

If we win out, we are in, that is the definition of controlling your own destiny

I don't think it is quite that simple.

 

[colbysullivan]

If we win out, we are in, that is the definition of controlling your own destiny

But that’s not a given. It would still be up to the rankings at that point, which means we don’t control our own destiny. You seriously don’t understand this? The only teams that control their own destiny are teams that can reach the conference championship game without help. We don’t fit that criteria.

 

[CoolBreeze]

I don't think it is quite that simple.

Actually, it is. There will be 12 teams and the SEC will be well represented...many with 2 losses. Cannot keep a Tide team with 2 losses out of the playoff, especially with the UGA win.

 

[colbysullivan]

Actually, it is. There will be 12 teams and the SEC will be well represented...many with 2 losses. Cannot keep a Tide team with 2 losses out of the playoff, especially with the UGA win.

They can do whatever they want. “Controlling your own destiny” absolutely does not apply. We lost that luxury after the Tennessee game.

 

[cbi1972]

Actually, it is. There will be 12 teams and the SEC will be well represented...many with 2 losses. Cannot keep a Tide team with 2 losses out of the playoff, especially with the UGA win.

This is called "hoping things play out favorably"

 

[gtgilbert]

They can do whatever they want. “Controlling your own destiny” absolutely does not apply. We lost that luxury after the Tennessee game.

well, really we lost it after the Vandy game. We knew it was highly likely there was at least one loss down the stretch of the season so we didn't have that one to give. It might also be what keeps us out. If there are other 2 loss SEC teams, and one of ours is to Vandy, it's certainly logical to give the other teams with better 'quality losses' and edge.

 

[CoolBreeze]

They can do whatever they want. “Controlling your own destiny” absolutely does not apply. We lost that luxury after the Tennessee game.

Just have to win out then see how things shake out. In my opinion, we win and we are in. A lot will be revealed in the next three weeks.

 

[CoolBreeze]

This is called "hoping things play out favorably"

Not really. Yea, of course there is Hope, she is beautiful and I love her, but if we win out then it is going to be hard to keep us out of the 12 teamer. 8&4 has to play the froghorns, who also have to play the hogs. Uga has to get through Lane and vomit at home, who later goes to Vandy. LSU will have lost to us and goes to UF before sooners and vandy at home. Win out and we are surging into the playoffs. Maybe that is not hardcore reasoning but I am a Tide Fan after all.

 

[cdub55]

We can agree to disagree. I don't see many scenarios playing out where we are not in the top 12 if we win out. Especially considering we are probably already either in the top 12 or on the fringe now.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

We can agree to disagree. I don't see many scenarios playing out where we are not in the top 12 if we win out. Especially considering we are probably already either in the top 12 or on the fringe now.

Plus, if Georgia loses to Ole Miss (and I think they will), and we have the same record, then they couldn't put Georgia in without putting us in, as we own the head to head. I know the AP poll had them ahead of us after the Vandy loss, but I think the committee will be smarter than that. If two teams have the same record and played head to head, you HAVE to go with the winner, no matter who they lost to, otherwise there's no point in playing the game. There would be mass outrage, and for good reason.

 

[colbysullivan]

Just have to win out then see how things shake out. In my opinion, we win and we are in. A lot will be revealed in the next three weeks.

I agree we should be in if we win out, but it’s certainly not guaranteed.