This Alabama Team belongs in the 12 Team Playoff

[CB4]

Well if the gambling sites are an indicator, among the contenders (USCe, Ole Miss, Miami) we continue to be the clear favorite.

We now moved to -200 on FanDuel to make CFP field. For perspective, Oregon is only a -175 favorite to be the #1 overall seed.

Additionally, the Coaches and AP poll both have us at #11. While the committee rankings operate independent of the polls, I still think this is a positive.

My only concern is that, if you have Bama, USCe, Ole Miss all with three losses, and Miami with only two, the committee choses the “path of least resistance” and takes Miami while dodging the SOS argument.

 

[BhamToTexas]

If Alabama gets in, opponent will likely be BIG11 loser. So game at Penn State (interesting) or at Oregon (DeBoer vs Lanning rematch). Getting 12th seed means you face 5th seed, with winner facing worst of the bye teams (ie SMU).

I think there are still too many unknowns to say who our opponent might be at this point, assuming we are #11 tomorrow night.

The championship games will reshuffle a lot. How far would a losing Texas or Oregon drop? And they could decide to jump an Arizona State conf champ over us and push us back to #12. They value conf champs so an Arizona State could jump multiple spots.

Another interesting twist is UNLV knocking off Boise State (very possible as they played a close one this year). That could move an Arizona State to #4 and a UNLV in at #12.

 

[BamaNation]

@CoolBreeze - good analysis. That said, I think you're about a touchdown too high on all the ones where Bama is favored but I suck at this so don't listen to me

 

[DzynKingRTR]

I think there are still too many unknowns to say who our opponent might be at this point, assuming we are #11 tomorrow night.

The championship games will reshuffle a lot. How far would a losing Texas or Oregon drop? And they could decide to jump an Arizona State conf champ over us and push us back to #12. They value conf champs so an Arizona State could jump multiple spots.

Another interesting twist is UNLV knocking off Boise State (very possible as they played a close one this year). That could move an Arizona State to #4 and a UNLV in at #12.

I have seen a couple of idiot claims that boise state should still get in even if they lose.

 

[BhamToTexas]

I have seen a couple of idiot claims that boise state should still get in even if they lose.

That would be ridiculous.

 

[CrimsonBloodn62]

Well if the gambling sites are an indicator, among the contenders (USCe, Ole Miss, Miami) we continue to be the clear favorite.

We now moved to -200 on FanDuel to make CFP field. For perspective, Oregon is only a -175 favorite to be the #1 overall seed.

Additionally, the Coaches and AP poll both have us at #11. While the committee rankings operate independent of the polls, I still think this is a positive.

My only concern is that, if you have Bama, USCe, Ole Miss all with three losses, and Miami with only two, the committee choses the “path of least resistance” and takes Miami while dodging the SOS argument.

If Clemson beats SMU I see no way for the committee to justify putting 3 ACC teams in that includes Miami. Miami will be the odd man left out from the ACC. If Miami is not in the top 12 tomorrow, that spells trouble for them.

 

[BhamToTexas]

If Clemson beats SMU I see no way for the committee to justify putting 3 ACC teams in that includes Miami. Miami will be the odd man left out from the ACC. If Miami is not in the top 12 tomorrow, that spells trouble for them.

There should only be one. Two is laughable. Three would be criminal.

 

[CoolBreeze]

@CoolBreeze - good analysis. That said, I think you're about a touchdown too high on all the ones where Bama is favored but I suck at this so don't listen to me

Actually, you are correct. My simulated ATS lines are considering neutral site games. If we play at their stadium you will have to swing 7 points to the other team. We'd still be favored in most games IMHO.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

That would be ridiculous.

agreed. it is why I called them idiots. I think they were attempting to find some way of getting as few SEC teams in as possible

 

[CrimsonBloodn62]

There should only be one. Two is laughable. Three would be criminal.

Agreed!

 

[B1GTide]

There should only be one. Two is laughable. Three would be criminal.

Even one is laughable, but such is this new system.

 

[CoolBreeze]

agreed. it is why I called them idiots. I think they were attempting to find some way of getting as few SEC teams in as possible

Unfortunately, the idiots are driving the bus down public opinion avenue. Their DEI rhetoric is why we have the expanded playoff in the first place. They will go to a 16 teamer next year after bluebloods dominate the final few games this year then 32 the year after that for the same reason.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

Unfortunately, the idiots are driving the bus down public opinion avenue. Their DEI rhetoric is why we have the expanded playoff in the first place. They will go to a 16 teamer next year after bluebloods dominate the final few games this year then 32 the year after that for the same reason.

The current format is 2 years, so they will not expand until 2026. They will expand after 2 years though.

 

[jcabama]

It would be hard to swallow having more than one rep from ACC, Big 12 or WAC (or whatever non-power 4) but we do live in an era of participation trophies. By the same token I wouldn't want to face Miami when Cam was on. The flip side of that token is that no team would be safe and I wouldn't fear anyone on a given day when Jaylen was in a groove and our D was playing its best either. Be nice to get in and see where it goes but won't be disturbed if we don't--given all the doubt we sowed.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Maybe Notre Dame doesn’t deserve to be in then. Northern Illinois dreams of Vandy’s gridiron glory.

Who are NDs other 2 losses?

 

[colbysullivan]

I have seen a couple of idiot claims that boise state should still get in even if they lose.

Well, the G5 has to get at least one team in every year, so…

 

[spidermayin]

Notre Dame is in and there should be no argument there. Yes, they lost to Northern Illinois, but they won the rest of their games. With the way Alabama has played so inconsistently this year, I would bet we would have had at least two losses with Notre Dame's schedule.

 

[CoolBreeze]

It would be hard to swallow having more than one rep from ACC, Big 12 or WAC (or whatever non-power 4) but we do live in an era of participation trophies. By the same token I wouldn't want to face Miami when Cam was on. The flip side of that token is that no team would be safe and I wouldn't fear anyone on a given day when Jaylen was in a groove and our D was playing its best either. Be nice to get in and see where it goes but won't be disturbed if we don't--given all the doubt we sowed.

That is the whole problem with these mediaphiles running off with their participation trophy rhetoric and the DEI lobby. They want to bastardize the competition while all we want is to see some competitive games in this tournament.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

@CoolBreeze - good analysis. That said, I think you're about a touchdown too high on all the ones where Bama is favored but I suck at this so don't listen to me

What does your wife say about all of this?

 

[countrytider]

Gotta lobby for my team. We have defects but there is no way we should be left out of this playoff. My argument?

My take on Vegas ATS guess if games were played tomorrow:

Notre dame - Bama -12
Oregon - Bama +6
Penn state - Bama -17.5
Ohio state - Bama - 13.5
Clemson - Bama -20.5
Arizona state vs Iowa state winner - Bama -23.5
Texas - Bama +8.5
UGA - Bama -2.5
Tennessee - Bama pickem
Boise state - Bama -26.5
Miami - Bama -17
South Carolina - Bama -12
Indiana - Bama -30.5
smu if they lose to Clemson - Bama-31

Vegas has Texas favored -2.5 over UGA.

You have Bama favored -2.5 over UGA.

So Bama and Texas are equal, right?

Yet you have Texas -8.5 over Bama