Grubb to be next OC at Bama per ESPN

[Bama Lee]

What can you expect OC to do if the opposing defense seals the edges and takes away QB runs like SC / Oklahoma / TEN did?



I think I know the answer to this one. In 2023, Saban had a dominant defense. That was arguably the best secondary in college football plus a first-round pass rusher.
When you have a dominant defense then you can play more conservative and would take 3 & out instead of asking your QB to throw the ball.
On the other hand, 2024 defense was average at best. True freshman starter in the secondary, anemic pass rush, etc. You have to score points to win with this defense. And Miroe could not deliver that

I wouldn't call a top 15 defense average

 

[CrimsonTitles]

I wouldn't call a top 15 defense average

Definitely above average, but our youth showed at times. If 2023 was our best defense in years (which I agree it was), then by the end of this year, 2024 was our second best defense in years. I agree with the spirit of that post, though. Our difference in record between 2023 and 2024 was not because Tommy Rees was the OC in 2023.

 

[davefrat]

Would it be fair to say, he got "Milroped"?

Maybe "Milroed" will become the next "Munsoned."

 

[KrAzY3]

Maybe "Milroed" will become the next "Munsoned."

I've also heard people argue that Sherida got bad Penix as well and that wasn't his fault either.

I'm not going to try turning the word Penix into anything else though...

 

[JDCrimson]

I don't know whether to be angry at Milroe or feel sorry for him. But it is unfortunate when you see someone work hard and they reach a ceiling on their ability and it's exposed for everyone to see.

Bryce Young got benched this year and played better after coming back as the starter.

I think given the hand he was dealt, I think it would be a disservice to Sheridan to let him go. No one needs to be looking for a job with Milroe as the last QB you coached on your resume.

I don't know how you chalk last season up but I'm starting to believe we should be thankful it was 9-4...

 

[gtgilbert]

This actually provides an interesting commentary on Sheridan's career because he had Penix for two years as well. Penix has injury issues but it was about the same number of games as he had Milroe. Furthermore, Penix had starts the year before Sheridan was OC and he performed better, so his subdued production wasn't just a product of Indiana's shortcomings (their QB was great this past season by the way).

Anyway...
Under Sheridan here's the numbers
Penix: 11 games, 2,584 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 11 INTs
Milroe: 13 games, 2844 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 11 INTs

It's actually remarkable how similar the production of both of those guys ended up being in Sheridan's offense. Anyway, my point is I'm much more comfortable with the notion of Grubb unlocking a QB's potential than I was with the previous play caller...

Here's what Penix did in Washington immediately after his time with Sheridan:
Penix: 13 games, 4641 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 8 INTs

Even his interceptions went down.
We can do Milroe as well, here's what he did under Rees:
13 games, 2834 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs

Weird how the trends all went one way... but it somehow had nothing to do with the OC.

I think you are using team offense instead of individual numbers, although the team numbers don't seem to jive either. Here is what Penix actually did:


Sheridan was OC in 20 and 21. In 20, in limited action Penix outdid JM by a long way in the passing game (on a YPG basis). In 21 there was a drop, but Penix was also not getting all the reps in the games he played due to injury so it's a tough comparison. in 21 they had FOUR QBs who all attempted at least 58 passes so that season appeared to be a hot mess.

 

[gtgilbert]

I don't know whether to be angry at Milroe or feel sorry for him. But it is unfortunate when you see someone work hard and they reach a ceiling on their ability and it's exposed for everyone to see.

It begs the question of if he was working on what he needed to work on, or if he was working on things that maybe didn't help him address the areas he needed to grow. We heard all the time he was the first one in the weight room every day. Maybe he should have taken some of that weight room time and worked on other things.

 

[KrAzY3]

I think you are using team offense instead of individual numbers, although the team numbers don't seem to jive either. Here is what Penix actually did:
View attachment 48951

Sheridan was OC in 20 and 21. In 20, in limited action Penix outdid JM by a long way in the passing game (on a YPG basis). In 21 there was a drop, but Penix was also not getting all the reps in the games he played due to injury so it's a tough comparison. in 21 they had FOUR QBs who all attempted at least 58 passes so that season appeared to be a hot mess.

I'm using the actual passing statistics from the individual (20 and 21 combined) and from the same place you got your stats.

Look at the QB rating... notice the dip when Sheridan is OC? You'll notice a similar dip with Milroe when Sheridan was OC. If you just total up the numbers Rees and Grubb had immediately adjacent to Sheridan with Milroe and Penix, there's a staggering difference. Not exactly apples to apples, but the regression is clear and the splits show even more regression (both Penix and Milroe started off better under Sheridan then performed very poorly as time passed).

All the excuses for Sheridan aside, we know Grubb can do well with a QB. We don't know that with Sheridan because it's nothing but excuses, no QB has ever done well with Sheridan as their OC. I'll take a proven commodity over someone that only has excuses for poor performances.

Rees rating with Milroe: 172
Sheridan rating with Milroe: 148

Things just never go Sheridan's way, poor guy.

 

[countrytider]

This actually provides an interesting commentary on Sheridan's career because he had Penix for two years as well. Penix has injury issues but it was about the same number of games as he had Milroe. Furthermore, Penix had starts the year before Sheridan was OC and he performed better, so his subdued production wasn't just a product of Indiana's shortcomings (their QB was great this past season by the way).

Anyway...
Under Sheridan here's the numbers
Penix: 11 games, 2,584 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 11 INTs
Milroe: 13 games, 2844 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 11 INTs

It's actually remarkable how similar the production of both of those guys ended up being in Sheridan's offense. Anyway, my point is I'm much more comfortable with the notion of Grubb unlocking a QB's potential than I was with the previous play caller...

Here's what Penix did in Washington immediately after his time with Sheridan:
Penix: 13 games, 4641 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 8 INTs

Even his interceptions went down.
We can do Milroe as well, here's what he did under Rees:
13 games, 2834 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs

Weird how the trends all went one way... but it somehow had nothing to do with the OC.

Don’t break the facts out! That will interrupt the Sheridan love fest apparently

 

[CrimsonTitles]

I've also heard people argue that Sheridah got bad Penix as well and that wasn't his fault either.

I'm not going to try turning the word Penix into anything else though...

Well, considering he had two years and did okay with good Penix, then yeah it's most likely not his fault. Sure, you could point to the numbers in 2020 and say Indiana's offense wasn't good at all, but a glance at the schedule kind of points to that being inaccurate. They went 6-2 in the COVID year, and it wasn't because of defense. Other than the Wisconsin game, the offense was what won them games that year. You also gotta remember that it's Indiana, so this was also with lower tier talent. I think Cignetti has made people forget that, but this was before the transfer portal really got into gear. Winning percentage-wise, 2020 was Indiana's best season in decades. Sheridan's offense had a lot to do with that. Penix didn't develop into Penix until 2022, when he was finally able to play in more than 6 games. Pointing to his tenure at Indiana to say he is a terrible playcaller, would be irresponsible, because he did some good things there. The stats may not necessarily reflect that, but in 2020, the offense did what it was supposed to do, and won games, often with inferior talent, including beating #8 Penn State 36-35. They also beat #23 Michigan 38-21, and narrowly lost to Ohio State 42-35. Does that sound like a terrible offense? It doesn't to me.

 

[countrytider]

Definitely above average, but our youth showed at times. If 2023 was our best defense in years (which I agree it was), then by the end of this year, 2024 was our second best defense in years. I agree with the spirit of that post, though. Our difference in record between 2023 and 2024 was not because Tommy Rees was the OC in 2023.

What was the difference then? Under Reese we never had compete abysmal showings of 3, 17, and 13 with no ability to adjust whatsoever in a losing effort.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

What was the difference then? Under Reese we never had compete abysmal showings of 3, 17, and 13 with no ability to adjust whatsoever in a losing effort.

Schedule, for one. Other than Georgia, it got pretty easy for me to predict when Milroe was going to have a bad game. It was all based on matchups. Not every team had the personnel to shut him down like Tennessee, Michigan, and Oklahoma did. I think you're also remembering Milroe's 2023 a lot more fondly than I am.

Tennessee's defense in 2024 was eons above their defense in 2023. I don't know anything about Tennessee historically, but that's gotta be their best defense in decades. They were elite during the regular season. So there's one extra loss, and then we added Oklahoma, there's another extra loss. Then there's the Vandy game, but that wasn't really on the offense. Milroe was horrible against Michigan both seasons. Also, Milroe did way better against Georgia under Sheridan than Rees, so there's that. And then there's LSU game where Milroe was great under both playcallers. His seasons really were not all that different, he just had way more turnovers in 2024. Hard to blame that on the playcaller.

 

[countrytider]

Schedule, for one. Other than Georgia, it got pretty easy for me to predict when Milroe was going to have a bad game. It was all based on matchups. Not every team had the personnel to shut him down like Tennessee, Michigan, and Oklahoma did. I think you're also remembering Milroe's 2023 a lot more fondly than I am.

Tennessee 's defense in 2024 was eons above their defense in 2023. I don't know anything about Tennessee historically, but that's gotta be their defense in decades. They were elite during the regular season. So there's one extra loss, and then we added Oklahoma, there's another extra loss. Then there's the Vandy game, but that wasn't really on the offense. Also, Milroe did way better against Georgia under Sheridan than Rees, so there's that. And then there's LSU game where Milroe was great under both playcallers. His seasons really were not all that different, he just had way more turnovers in 2024. Hard to blame that on the playcaller.

But we’re not cherry picking his good games. The question at hand is the losses. I would say under Rees I bet we score more against OU and Michigan for sure. Even tho UT had a great defense this season, probably them as well.

 

[Cruloc]

But we’re not cherry picking his good games. The question at hand is the losses. I would say under Rees I bet we score more against OU and Michigan for sure. Even tho UT had a great defense this season, probably them as well.

I know what adjustment we could have made to score more vs Michigan and OU.

 

[CrimsonTitles]

But we’re not cherry picking his good games. The question at hand is the losses. I would say under Rees I bet we score more against OU and Michigan for sure. Even tho UT had a great defense this season, probably them as well.

I wasn't cherry picking the good games. I just laid out the entire season for you. I didn't get into most of the wins, because Milroe was not a problem in those games, except for Auburn. But the offense was fine in that game, in spite of all Milroe's turnovers. And let's not forget, we needed a last second miracle to beat Auburn in 2023. Against Oklahoma, we would not have done any better under Rees. They used the same blueprint as Michigan. I see no reason no reason to believe the Tennessee would have been any different under Rees. Since when did Tommy Rees become some sort of offensive mastermind? Are we forgetting all the hate he got last season? If Tommy Rees were the playcaller in 2024, we probably lose the same games we did with Sheridan, and maybe Georgia too. We did not see anything from Milroe under Rees that would be evidence that Rees could have done any better. There was a reason we had so many long QB threads in off-season.

 

[davefrat]

I know what adjustment we could have made to score more vs Michigan and OU.

Not making a change against OU was insane with a playoff spot on the table.

As for the MI game...meh...it meant nothing to me and didn't look like it meant anything to anyone on the offensive side of that ball that day either.

But not benching him against OU was absurd.

 

[countrytider]

I know what adjustment we could have made to score more vs Michigan and OU.

For one, screen passes to the RB. Matter of fact, one more screen pass to the RB on the final drive against Michigan, we win the game…..even as bad as it had been up to that point. Instead we drop Milroe back 4 straight times and expect him to read the defense and distribute the ball in a timely fashion.

 

[davefrat]

For one, screen passes to the RB. Matter of fact, one more screen pass to the RB on the final drive against Michigan, we win the game…..even as bad as it had been up to that point. Instead we drop Milroe back 4 straight times and expect him to read the defense and distribute the ball in a timely fashion.

Do you mean last year in the playoff or this year in the whatever bowl?

 

[mlh]

How do we know for certain JM/LANK was not a factor in him bolting after a month a year ago?

I've been waiting for this question to pop up...

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Anyway...
Under Sheridan here's the numbers
Penix: 11 games, 2,584 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 11 INTs
Milroe: 13 games, 2844 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 11 INTs

It's actually remarkable how similar the production of both of those guys ended up being in Sheridan's offense. Anyway, my point is I'm much more comfortable with the notion of Grubb unlocking a QB's potential than I was with the previous play caller...

Here's what Penix did in Washington immediately after his time with Sheridan:
Penix: 13 games, 4641 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 8 INTs

Even his interceptions went down.
We can do Milroe as well, here's what he did under Rees:
13 games, 2834 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs

Weird how the trends all went one way... but it somehow had nothing to do with the OC.

Let's actually look at tMilroe's numbers under Rees and Sheridan, ALL of them.

Passing:
Rees: 13 games, 2834 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs
Sheridan: 13 games, 2844 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 11 INTs

Rushing:
Rees: 13 games, 531 yards, 12 TD's
Sheridan: 13 games, 726, 20 TD's

Total TD's
Rees: 13 games, 35 TD's
Sheridan: 13 games, 36 TD's

Under BOTH Rees and Sheridan Milroe was responsible for the same amount of TD's. Taking into consideration Milroe's total production (both passing and rushing) under Rees and Sheridan, the difference in passing td's and int's isn't material enough to say Rees "did more" with Milroe.

I think you're involved in a debate that's not being had. No one is saying Sheridan was/is a "good" OC and he didn't have any blind spots. What's being said is the limitations of the quarterback were so severe that Sheridan nor any OC not named Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian or Chip Kelly could overcome to materially change the performance of the position/player (Jalen Milroe). Sure, you've got people saying they don't think they can truly assess Sheridan due to the limitations of the QB. But I don't see anyone on here saying he's a good, very good, or great OC.

The evidence is clear, under two different OC's Jalen Milroe's offensive production was in the same ballpark. Were his stats "EXACTLY" the same, no, but not enough difference to start saying or implying that Sheridan was the bigger problem or just as much of the problem. Josh Pate didn't say Alabama was held hostage by the OC. He said Alabama was held hostage by the QB. Milroe's post-Senior Bowl draft stock plummet and scouting notes back his statement up as well.

Something to point out, Sheridan wasn't at the Senior Bowl when Milroe was throwing picks, fumbling, grossly missing wr's and running out of bounds before reaching the first down mark. Who we blaming that on?