The Decline of the DNC II

[Crimson1967]

Booker’s speech was a publicity stunt. It will quickly be forgotten about.

The Dems are crowing about winning in Wisconsin but ignoring the two Florida elections they said they could win and spent a lot of money but lost 60-40 in both.

Getting the Senate in 2026 will be tough. It is currently 53-47 so they need to gain four. The GOP has 22 seats up and the Democrats 13. There are two special elections for Vance and Rubio’s seats. So far, the only Republican retiring is McConnell and the Democrats have three in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. Tubby might run for governor but Satan would beat Jesus here if he ran as a Republican.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

"Joe Scarborough and other lefties". This is my only critique. Do you see what has happened?

poor verbiage in my part. But yes I do.

 

[Bamaro]

"Joe Scarborough and other lefties". This is my only critique. Do you see what has happened?

Scarborough is far from being a leftie but he certainly doesn't like trump.

 

[cdub55]

Just my .02...

The party system has ruined America in that we are no longer trying to make things better but "catch" the other party slipping. We no longer are trying to fix real issues but exploit them. The strategy has went from doing real life good to "how can we appear to be doing good so we can win the election".

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- Morning Joe called for him to step aside as did a number of lefties

@dtgreg
@Bamaro

Just to be clear, even this (technically) doesn't say I'm calling Joe Scarborough a lefty as he OBVIOUSLY is not. I meant the SHOW, not Joe himself, but I also can understand why I - and this is solely on me - left the wrong impression here.

Scarborough is more conservative than Donald Trump - in the real world.

 

[Bamaro]

He dehydrated himself on purpose. Also Mr. Potato Head is trying to set up for a run in 2028.

He went straight from the lectern to a colonoscopy without all the purging in between.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Booker’s speech was a publicity stunt. It will quickly be forgotten about.

It's the new answer to the history question of who gave the longest speech, but the mention of Thurmond's speech when I was taking history back in the dark ages was because it was used to demonstrate the FILIBUSTER, which as has been noted this technically wasn't.

The Dems are crowing about winning in Wisconsin but ignoring the two Florida elections they said they could win and spent a lot of money but lost 60-40 in both.

The Democrats won a liberal court seat that was held for the previous 30 years by liberal Ann Walsh Bradley; in other words, AOC retired and they replaced her with Jasmine Crockett (to use a parallel). But it IS a big story in the sense that Elon Musk, Kingmaker inserted himself publicly into it, too.

Getting the Senate in 2026 will be tough. It is currently 53-47 so they need to gain four. The GOP has 22 seats up and the Democrats 13. There are two special elections for Vance and Rubio’s seats. So far, the only Republican retiring is McConnell and the Democrats have three in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. Tubby might run for governor but Satan would beat Jesus here if he ran as a Republican.

The Senate is going to be a tough - but not impossible - nut for the Dems to crack. The House will almost certainly go Democratic because even in the most "we didn't lose that many seats" midterms, the "out of power" party picks up more than the three seats the Dems will need to gain control.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

He dehydrated himself on purpose. Also Mr. Potato Head is trying to set up for a run in 2028.

He's a theatrical nincompoop who thinks he's the next Barack Obama. Remember - he's the same guy that talked out of his backside about being "Spartacus" during the Kavanaugh hearings because he was going to run for President in 2020 and we all saw how far he got - for those who don't remember, he never even got into the starting gate.

If he thinks he's the next Obama, he needs to go study "No Drama Obama" to understand why he's NOT the next Obama.

 

[Its On A Slab]

"Joe Scarborough and other lefties". This is my only critique. Do you see what has happened?

In this environment, anything to the left of MAGA is considered "lefty" and "far left".

Then again, it's been that way for a long time. Eisenhower and Nixon(or Ronnie Rayguns) would be called RINOs or traitors today. But we no longer live in a world where such things as Russian aggression is considered a bad thing to Republicans.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

In this environment, anything to the left of MAGA is considered "lefty" and "far left".

But this is one of the biggest nonsensical "branding jobs" in history. (It's also proof that political scientists don't know their behinds from a hole in the ground, but I digress).

Besides border security, what exactly is CONSERVATIVE about "MAGA"?
What?

They've positioned themselves as "the only conservatives" with a President who has named Democrats as HHS secretary, DNI, and 1 or 2 other prominent things. And Trump himself gave money almost exclusively to Democrats (save Giuliani) prior to 2015.

Then again, it's been that way for a long time. Eisenhower and Nixon(or Ronnie Rayguns) would be called RINOs or traitors today. But we no longer live in a world where such things as Russian aggression is considered a bad thing to Republicans.

And this is where I think branding is ridiculous. On what - exactly - was Eisenhower "liberal," which is a term used to describe him too often? He balanced budgets, ended the war in Korea, and I don't ascribe to the notion that the enforcement of civil rights is AUTOMATICALLY "liberal."

Let me give you a little thing I show folks who thanks to branding think "Reagan was a real conservative, Bush 41 was a squishy moderate."

Bush - not Reagan - went to war.
Bush - not Reagan - tried to balance the budget.
Bush - not Reagan - went to church publicly (if we're going the religious right route).
Bush - not Reagan - was married to one wife for 73 years
Bush - not Reagan - served as a pilot and was shot down in WW2.
Reagan - not Bush - turned tail and ran when things went south in Lebanon. It's not that simple, I know.
Reagan - not Bush (who yes was along for the ride) - sold arms to Iran for hostages, he didn't invade.
Reagan - not Bush - raised taxes multiple times and couldn't balance the budget.

And as a reminder, Bush pulled all this off without his party holding a majority in either house for a single day of his Presidency; Reagan had a GOP Senate for six years.

I will grant conservatism can be difficult to define, and I can grant there's wide latitude. But according to the stereotypes of what makes a right-winger, BUSH and not Reagan was more conservative in ACTION whereas Reagan was more conservative in RHETORIC.

(Incidentally, both Reagan and Bush possessed B.A. degrees in Economics).

 

[selmaborntidefan]

"FIGHT" SUMMARY - CONTINUED
- Rob Flaherty was Biden's digital advisor and at his mother's house in Boston
- upon hearing Trump was shot and survived, she warned him, "He just got reelected."
- Schumer met with Biden on the morning of July 13 and said the polls were horrendous
- Biden pled with the New Democrat Coalition in the House to save him
- Jason Crow, an Afghanistan veteran from Colorado, told him voters were concerned over the ability of Biden to "keep them safe," at which point Biden threw into one of his Irish temper fits
- Biden challenged Crow to name one world leader who had done as much for NATO and pulled the old politician's trick of invoking the service of a family member, his late son, Beau
- the Dems knew the picture of Trump with his fist in the air after the shot contrasted with every picture seen lately of Biden was a complete disaster
- Dems fired out a quick memo to everyone - stay off social media! Their fear was one of their members would say something that could be misconstrued into "Trump deserved to get shot"

- Trump was supposed to announce his VP on July 15, and he was down to three contenders: Marco Rubio, Doug Burgum, and JD Vance
- Rubio couldn't be trusted to not be independent; he'd burned them more than once. Plus, Rubio knew what had nearly happened to the last Vice-President and wasn't keen on being hanged
- Vance cultivated Trump for two years, all but bending over and kissing his rump; he made a trip to Florida to apologize and take a Trump browbeating, became good friend with Trump Jr, and disavowed every viewpoint he'd ever held publicly
- you'd think a guy shot the day before might take the appointment seriously, but you'd be wrong
- like most Presidents, Trump paid almost no attention to the fact his choice might succeed him
- but he was correct that nobody votes for the ticket based on #2
- Lindsey Graham argued for Rubio as the bridge to establishment Republicans that would be a reach out to voters of color and show the GOP isn't an all-white party
- plus, said Graham, Trump's daughter-in-law could then be appointed Florida Senator
- Rubio pointed out he would have to change residency since both were based in Florida if he was chosen
- Jason Miller endorsed Vance, saying the pick would be who would advance his views beyond his second term and would ony be 40 years old
- Wiles favored Rubio but wasn't going to pick a fight with a member of the Trump family
- given the choice between the base or reaching out, he went with the base - as always: Vance

- with the speech this week in Milwaukee, everyone in both parties knew the ratings would go through the roof following the assassination attempt. Indeed, it was now considered a foregone conclusion in both parties Trump was going to win, probably easily
- NJ Governor Phil Murphy was a close friend of Jared and Ivanka and was in Germany with the PM; he reached out to them and passed along his support. He then informed the PM, "Trump is going to win, we're going to lose the Senate, and we might - might -keep the House"
-Trump hosted Murphy when he returned and after a bloviating 40-minute recap of every moment of being shot, he asked Murphy, "Do you think I can win New Jersey?"
- this question is not as ridiculous as it sounds; polling showed Biden only 3 points up on Trump in NJ
- unlikely? Yes, but no Republican had been this close in over 30 years.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- over 24 days, the entire party turned on Biden
- only one Democrat, Marie Perez, (D-WA 3) declared publicly Biden should resign the office
- there were alternating fits of anger but none wanted to admit they'd been part of the charade
- Biden's sole asset in 2020 was electability....and now that was gone, no reason to keep him around
- less than an hour before Trump was shot, 500 miles east, some bigwig donors gathered
- there to raise money for Schiff, Alsobrooks and Slotkin
- Schiff said they were going to lose with Biden on top but he wouldn't say so publicly
- Slotkin was the lone truth teller: there's no fantasy choice, it's either Biden or Harris, we're in trouble
- Slotkin argued Biden's AGE would only hurt HIM, but HARRIS would be drilled as "woke" and cause losses down ballot
- Slotkin said Whitmer would replace Biden in a perfect world but then warned if they passed over the first black woman in line, they'd lose elections for a generation with the loss of black voters
- someone recorded Schiff's remarks which were then distributed (but....not Slotkin's......LOL!)
- the leak forced his hand, so Schiff called on Biden to step aside
- Schiff was the 20th lawmaker to say this.....but the first in the inner circle of Darth Pelosi

- Biden was in Vegas not feeling well in the 110 degree heat and staggered a bit going up the plane stairs; this was the end for sure
- especially when Biden tested positive for Covid, which took him out of making a response and resulted in the mad dash to call on him to withdraw
- Harris's allies began positioning her to take over; her asset was she'd never turned on Biden
- Harris had spent her time since June 27 advocating for Biden at every turn

- Nikki Fried, Florida Dem party chair, was at a Janet Jackson concert when she got a call
- she was already angry that manager Dillon had declared they couldn't win Florida
- the concert was an escape from the bad when a friend called and put Fried on with Donna Brazile
- Brazile told her "Florida will be important in the election" - this was code for "Florida has the 3rd largest number of delegates and we need them for Harris", which Fried supported
- Fried said she could probably deliver the delegates
- CA, NY, and FL were on board and calls were going to other state chairs to round up Harris support
- Brazile had been with the party since 1984, so she knew how to act on behalf of both Biden and VP
- but there was one really big sticking point





Barack Obama

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- where was Obama? Letting his minions doing the dirty work and keeping his hands clean
- Obama didn't believe in the national party, and it had crippled the Dems ability to win
- Biden, the Clintons, and several black women had been rebuilding party infrastructure since 2016
- their goal? Keep the far left from taking over; all their party officers were pragmatists, not "woke"
- the AOC/Bernie wing had been kept out largely by the political skills of Bill and Hillary Clinton
- the Clintons were the builders.....Obama was the rock star, the alpha male.......what did he think?
- while Trump railed in his acceptance speech and blamed Biden for everything, the Dem powers were at a karaoke bar getting tanked and singing off-key 90s hits when it began to hit Twitter.....looks like Biden is getting out but NOT endorsing Harris

- the next day (July 19), Dillon went on "Morning Joe" and made it worse by saying Biden was still in the race, even though they'd seen some slippage
- one state level aide summarized Dillon's appearance as she was either out of the loop or lying
- that same day, more than a dozen Democrats added their names to the list of "withdraw!"

- Clyburn felt bad for his old friend Joe, but it was time for the white flag so he roused support
- but he also wanted Harris as the replacement and knew Obama and Pelosi and donors did not
- Biden realized the picture of Trump going to the hospital with Covid in 2020 just as voting began likely helped him; he now realized the picture of himself staggering with Covid in 2024 might undo him
- fact was, Biden's numbers were NOT really all that bad considering everything.
- he trailed in every single swing state, but it was close enough he could theoretically win them all
- but the problem was the biggest gaps were in the BIG THREE in the Rust Belt, the "blue wall" of Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin; that was going to be the toughest hill to climb
- there was also the fact Tester and Brown (OH) facing Senate races they would lose had gotten louder in their request that he step aside
- the selling point to Biden was the fact he was going to have to win fighting not only Republicans but Democrats who had come out against him

- Biden mused the biggest tactical blunder the Dems had made was failing to coalesce soon enough around Hillary in 2016; the Sanders delay and lack of enthusiasm had beaten her
- "Let me sleep on it" (July 21) - but tell me in the morning what it looks like if I drop out.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- Harris needed things to get clear and fast. She couldn't betray him but she couldn't be still, either
- they mused he would delay withdrawal until Thursday; he was meeting Netanyahu Wednesday
- Biden had to withdraw and - to keep the bloodletting minimal - he HAD to endorse Harris
- Biden had never lost a general election. Ever. So he still thought he could beat Trump. But not now.

- the withdrawal was about to set a horrible precedent that wasn't fun to contemplate: a President could be removed NOT ONLY by the voters, NOT ONLY by removal.....but by donors with big bucks.
- besides, the Democratic Party had for years argued about "fairness" in so many things and were now showing the entire world that you could replace a nominee for any old reason if you feared losing
- Biden would withdraw....and he told Harris she had his support
- Biden had no choice; Harris was HIS choice as the most prepared/qualified/whatever; had he destroyed her, it would have made his legacy worse; plus, it was a middle finger to Obama/Pelosi/Etc
- but then he dropped the bomb: he deserved respect and he was not going to cloud over his own withdrawal statement right away with the endorsement, which ticked off the pro-Harris faction
- a back and forth ensued but they eventually agreed to the endorsement

- Biden then called Clyburn at lunch and briefed him and their back and forth over endorsement
- Obama was supposed to call at 530p, and Clyburn knew Obama didn't want Harris
- Clyburn was also determined Harris was getting his support and his convo with Obama lasted a minute
- one person close to Biden said the entire thing was a "you know the word" YOU to Barack Obama. Biden was still angry over being shut out in 2016 for Hillary, angry over Obama trying to get him out in 2020, and here was a chance for revenge on him while being the one to endorse the black woman


- Jill Biden, however, still loathed Harris for her 2019 suggestion Biden was racist
- in fact, almost nobody else in the Biden camp liked Harris for that very reason
- Harris had also earned the reputation among her high turnover staff for being the kind of boss who would ask a dozen questions until she could get to one the staff didn't know in order to smirk and feel intellectually superior
- indeed, Biden staff had repeatedly mocked her to reporters when she fouled up interviews, something not even the Bush folks did with the similarly inept Dan Quayle
- Harris the nominee had been presented as a threat to everyone, but now it was going to happen
- in Feb 2023, one rich Florida donor warned they might need to consider replacing Harris before the election in case something like the eventual circumstance happened (or worse, Biden died)

- but cynicism was now driving everything. The only point in Harris's favor was "if we pass her, blacks won't vote for us". That was LITERALLY the only case to make on her behalf.
- and Obama was telling close allies, "She's going to lose"
- Pelosi needed Biden for the Congressional races but someone else (not Harris) for the White House
- Harris was not stupid; she knew they wanted a new nominee and not necessarily her
- she began working the phones for any endorsement she could get and landed a big one: Clintons
- Obama wanted Whitmer at the top and MD governor Wes Moore as the VP; he figured replacing Harris with Moore would soften the "passed up on the black" argument
- Obama wouldn't commit to Harris when she reached him
- so she called both of his managers (David Plouffe, Jim Messina) and rounded them up

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- meanwhile in state houses, governors with Ds next to their names were licking their chops
- Newsom, Whitmer, Murphy, Shapiro, Pritzker
- most governors including Whitmer called Harris and inquired about the path
- then they endorsed her; Whitmer knew she was in a "no win" situation
- Harris had four huge advantages: incumbency, her race/gender, the call sheet, and the fact she was the only one who could inherit the already banked donations
- but Pritzker (D-IL) wouldn't take the call, which furthered suspicion the billionaire might just run
- Harris's team made immediate plans to deck him if he entered, creating an attack list
- Pritzker refused to endorse her but said it was only because Chicago was hosting the convention and he needed to see how it would play
- while this sounds cynical, both Andrew Young (Atlanta 88) and Cuomo (NYC 92) did that
- Harris had passed her fast test: she had won with Biden, outwitted Obama and Pelosi....maybe she was a smarter politician than most realized....but Donald Trump was another matter.

- Trump had spent all of 23 and 24 saying, "They're going to yank Biden at the last minute"
- Trump even expressed the fear to Jason Miller at the debate that if he ripped Biden too badly, they'd have time to choose a better nominee
- so sure was the GOP of this move they had a dossier on every conceivable candidate and their records
- Trump assumed they would swap out Shapiro in place of Harris
- but they felt it didn't matter; Harris would be easy to tie to Biden and inflation was the key issue anyway
- knowing he needed to flip 11 percent of the vote across 7 states, Trump's campaign decided getting him on podcasts and streaming services was a way to outreach white, male non-voters under 30

- Harris and Obama had had a tempestuous relationship back to when she was SF AG and she was denied entry to his bubble at the 2008 Chicago convention
- him calling her the "best looking AG in the country" in 2013 hadn't endeared him to her, either
- she'd had tea a few times but they were hardly friends; they assumed she didn't ask Obama political questions because she feared looking clueless
- Obama advocated a mini-primary, basically his route, but his real intent was to get rid of Harris
- Obama was the last to get on board and only did so after realizing his loyalty to the party was being seriously questioned; look, decision is made, get on board.
- Harris needed the Obama coalition, the only Democrat since FDR to win majorities of both the popular and electoral vote TWICE

-Biden headed towards the LBJ library and the funeral of Sheila Jackson Lee, alongside Al Sharpton and Clyburn. He thanked them for their loyalty, and then said there were those he would never forgive for what they'd done to him. The first name out of his lips?





Nancy Pelosi

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- Harris probably had the greatest opening as the new nominee in history, esp in the TV age
- everything looked good from the outside and money rolled in, but inside? Still a problem
- Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, Biden's manager, had a rep as the kind you couldn't tell was wrong or you were fired; she had eyes and ears everywhere
- but JOD was on the bad list for lying to the donors, too; but she HAD been more loyal to Harris than most of the West Wing;
- this late in the game? keep the one who ran the race in 2020 and prepped and hope for the best
- JOD agreed to take on Obama aides but NO demotion; any demotion, and she was gone, a threat that meant Harris might lose her entire campaign infrastructure if she crossed her manager
- this one episode suggested how weak Harris was to others; tell JOD to take a hike now and let the chips fall where they may, many of those aides couldn't leave because they had bills to pay
- at this key point, Harris announced JOD and it sent the message loud and clear: there was no change in anything from Biden EXCEPT who was the head of the ticket, not a good argument for the Fall

- but Harris keeping JOD (Dillon) didn't mean she was keeping the rest and the coup began
- folks who had secure jobs, gone
- every little hiccup was hitting the Harris team, who didn't have time for these kinds of stall
- Flaherty sent a memo to everyone - Harris has no chance of winning this thing
- at every point, Harris wanted to put her friends in jobs and was meeting resistance from Obama aides who wanted to keep their jobs and titles but would leave the work up to the new people
- was 107 days short enough to hide her flaws? Or too short to generate a win?

- Tony Fabrizio, Trump's pollster, warned him Harris would fly high for a little bit and to be calm
- Trump increased his lead by an average of 1.5-2 points in the battlegrounds
- it was at this point everyone knew PA was the "win or lose" state for both teams
- now Harris had to make a choice that meant nothing AND everything: a VP running mate
- ordinarily, who cares? But as the public had no view on her, this was more important for Harris than probably any Prez candidate in US history.


Her VP list was short: Shapiro, Walz, and AZ Senator Mark Kelly

 

[selmaborntidefan]

TIM WALZ
He called Harris within minutes of her selection and said he'd been at a Utah airport waiting on a commercial jet and listening to the travelers talk about politics. And he wanted the VP job - badly. Harris immediately thought he wasn't the world's smartest guy given as head of the Governors Association he had zero reason to sit around an airport when he could book a private plane. But he immediately unveiled the adjective "weird" to describe Trump and Vance, and the fact he was former military, a school teacher, and had never lost an election helped.

MARK KELLY
he had a different problem. He might put Arizona in the blue, but he was bald like Walz and there were rumors of an extramarital affair years ago. That might not sink most nominees - but most weren't married to a Congresswoman who had been shot in the head and barely survived, and the visual was not healthy if it came out.

JOSH SHAPIRO
The pros and cons list was long. Shapiro was well-liked by PA Republicans, a good orator, and he might seal the deal for PA. His baggage was the fact he'd ended one Democrat's career vindictively (as had a lot of politicians) but he would surely open up the Israel-Palestinian issue as a Jew himself. Harris might cause herself more problems by choosing him and losing Michigan due to the Arab vote. And plus, a lot of Democrats noticed that Shapiro seemed to basically be a speaker mimicking Obama's delivery. And there was a feeling Shapiro (like Rubio with Trump) was too independent to stay sufficiently loyal.

Trump's fear was she would pick Shapiro, which would immediately make him NOT the "better candidate for Israel" in the race.

But Shapiro angered Harris when only five minutes into the discussion he began telling her the parts of the administration he expected to control. What did this guy think, this was a negotiation? Then he zinged her with, "I'm not sure I could be number two." But Shapiro had to think about his future. If she won with him, he was in the cooler until 2032, and if she lost, he was finished. Shapiro couldn't step back and look disloyal, but he appeared to be acting in such a way as to make sure he didn't get it.


Harris then smartly despite knowing her choice drew it out a few days to keep attention focused on her. And when she took the stage with Walz in Philly it was now crystal clear for the first time she HEADED the ticket.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Thanks, @selmaborntidefan - best CliffsNotes ever!

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- Trump once again freaked out about not being the center of attention - and he succeeded
- Trump had gotten attention for saying Kamala hadn't been black until a few years ago, saying she was Indian and had changed her identity, capping this with he respected both races and her neither
- when she grabbed the expected lead as the fresh candidate, he came unglued
- Wiles had been smart enough to not give anyone the title of campaign manager
- that's because Trump went through them like trash bags and not having a title made it harder for him to fire someone in a fit of rage
- one of them - Corey Lewandowski - showed back up with the way to always get Trump's attention: "they're stealing money from you, fire them all"
- both sides in this race had some sleaze merchants, but Wiles was ensuring the Trump side hid

-Trump re-entered the race with two issues, inflation and immigration
- Biden undercut his own credibility by saying things weren't that bad when they were
- Biden also bought the lie that abortion had won the midterms, which are low turnout affairs anyway
- besides, Biden was Catholic and had kept changing his own position and wasn't comfortable talking about the issue anyway
- the Democrats learned the wrong lesson from the midterms: no restrictions AT ALL on abortion; indeed any discussion of them never once mentioned ANY restriction
- Trump outfoxed them by moving to the center; he, too, had been on all sides of the same issue, but he was the one who appointed the judges. So now he went for "states decide" and - more to the point - opposed a "national ban."
- this made him liberal enough on the issue in the battlegrounds with looser abortion laws AND did him no harm in red states enacting bans. Trump never once believed this would rally liberals, it would simply make him not a threat to the vast swath of voters who wouldn't have one but didn't want it banned, either
- Trump had also emerged from his convention mere days after being shot as king of the world, but he was now being surpassed in coverage by this neophyte


- the move to Harris gave the Democrats, flailing water, a chance to reset, to change policies she disagreed with Biden. The libs were in her corner so she could play towards the center.
- this was why Trump began to bombard her with commercials showing many hard left positions she had taken over the years as a California politician
- Trump again went with what he knew - "they rigged it for her!"
- with Trump about to go on a firing rampage because he couldn't get through, Susie Wiles concocted a masterful idea: bring the press down to Florida for a state of the race address from Trump. It would keep her from getting canned, him from raging, and he could say what he wanted
- he laid out the plan: Kamala said she 'was the last person in the room' which meant, "Ok. So explain Afghanistan. Explain inflation." on and on saddling her with Biden failures.
- he was actually decent politically here, burying her and saying Biden at least deserved the chance
- what Harris did not have at this point......any reason for anyone to vote for her other than "not Trump"

- a warning shot for Harris the first week of August with a wrong track number of 66%
- 50% is pay attention, 60 is an alarm bell, and 70 is you're going to lose reelection
- Harris was not REALLY saddled with all of the bad Biden stuff; claim the good, correct the bad
- but because she kept his aides on board, every day she was being reminded not to stray too far from the one who made her nomination possible, Joe Biden
- and at that moment right before the Convention, she made her first big blunder

 

[selmaborntidefan]

- on August 16, Harris went to Raleigh and tweaked 2 Biden policies but added a disastrous third
- a federal ban on price gouging that Trump immediately turned into "Soviet economic policy"
- right out of the gate, she was a leftist on economics, boxed in by Biden's aides and her own problem of not knowing just exactly what she planned to do
- she didn't know how to formulate an economic agenda and Biden's aides didn't want her to because it would insinuate he was not good at economics


THE CONVENTION
- an angry Biden got on late to speak and, well, not much about Harris
- just one month ago he was going to be speaking here, an opportunity robbed by the 2020 pandemic
- Biden tied Harris to himself and boasted about the most progress in any four year period
- Trump couldn't have coached him any better or made his job any easier
- hours before her speech, Harris's writer tested positive for Covid
- on the night of her speech, Harris had a 1.5 point lead in national polls
- the day after her convention ended, RFK Jr ended his candidacy and boarded the Trump train
- although Harris led nationally, she trailed big in the top two voter issues, inflation and immigration
- Trump even beat her on crime, amazing given his recent convictions in NY

ON THE ROAD
- it wasn't lost that Harris' polls were mostly a sugar high that would come down
- the fact she had yet to do a single interview didn't help and her first with Walz in tow fell in on her
- in the first interview, she began reversing herself on almost everything that wasn't abortion, from fracking to "oh yes, I support this/that/all Biden policy")
- Harris looked more like a "yes woman" for a failed president than a nominee
- at the same time, Harris WAS on a roll, and was also prepping for the debate
- coincidentally, former VP Pence was in the seat behind the guy playing Trump in debate prep
- asked if he had any advice, Pence said, "She's very good on the attack, less so on her record."
- Harris took five days off the campaign trail to prep for what would be the only debate
- the prep focused on how she could separate from Biden on key points while claiming credit

- but it was all for nought when hours before the debate Biden called in to remind her of the loyalty she owed to him: "no daylight, kid."

Biden was more concerned with her being his surrogate than her beating Trump. But on this one key aspect, Harris didn't keep Biden's aides.

For the debate, she hired her own team, and the debate would show how much it mattered.