Trump's Tariffs and Possible Trade War

selmaborntidefan

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No, no I am not. That was the whole point of my post you quoted.

There aren't even viable American made options for so many products. One example, even some TV manufactures in the US source components from foreign companies. There is no way around it for the foreseeable future.
Let's add in that while they're boasting about record unemployment, they're also saying they're bringing more jobs here while firing people, who apparently will be so glad to be out of that office and back in front of the blast furnace.
 

selmaborntidefan

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BTW everyone, here's your reminder of what a "business genius" this guy is:

1) Trump’s Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, “defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin." In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. (Most subprime mortgage holders did better than default either the first six months or first 15 months, and they had nowhere near the money of Donnie Bunko.)

2) and
3) He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992.

4) A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt.

5) Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt.

6) Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.

And we can add the USFL, the league that had controlled costs that Trump violated (to be fair, he wasn't the first, but he was by far the worst), a spring league he insisted HAD to move to fall, and whose losses skyrocketed when he joined the league.

Would the USFL have gone out of business without Trump? Probably. But that's about like saying that if you live to 81 and die anyway that it's the same thing as dying at 37 of an easily treatable cancer, too.
 

Bamaro

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John Oliver explaining trump's tariffs chart:
“Unfortunately that chart is ridiculous for a number of reasons,” he added. “For one thing, it features an estimate of tariffs charged to the U.S.A. by other countries that no one could figure out until a financial journalist realized it was just how much we export to that country, minus how much we import from them, divided by how much we import from them. Which is just stunningly dumb, because those things have nothing to do with tariffs.”

The White House later disputed that mathematical reasoning, releasing its own seemingly more complicated equation. Yet Oliver pointed out the math still wasn’t adding up.

“But people quickly pointed out that one symbol meant exports, one meant imports, and the other numbers were variables set at 4 and 1/4 so they cancelled each other out meaning it’s the same stupid equation everyone said it was in the first place!” Oliver said.

He continued: “It’d be like trying to figure out the square footage of your home by dividing your phone number by your dog’s age. Or taking your temperature by measuring your head’s distance to the sun. It’s not going to get you the answer that you’re looking for.”
“We all knew it was a matter of time before this show became me literally teaching you math. I’m just surprised it took us 12 seasons.”
 

Tidewater

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John Oliver explaining trump's tariffs chart:
I heard someone explain the Trump tariffs this way: if a country places a tariff pon American rice sold in their country, then we will place the same tariff on rice grown in their country and shipped to the US. Except the concept of comparative advantage means that Finland imports oranges from Spain (because Spain has a comparative advantage in the production of oranges so they are cheaper) almost by definition means Spain does not import oranges from Finland. That would be dumb.
If Finland slaps a tariff on Spanish oranges, it would be dumb for Spain to retaliate by slapping a tariff on Finnish oranges because Finland does not grow oranges. Spain would be smarter to place a tariff on Finnish cell phones.
 
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crimsonaudio

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U.S. President Donald J. Trump has now announced that in retaliation to the Chinese retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods, the U.S. will now impose an additional tariff of 50% on Chinese goods. China has until tomorrow, April 8, 2025, to rescind the tariffs, or the additional U.S. 50% tariffs will go into effect the next day, April 9, 2025.



1744048032481.png
 

selmaborntidefan

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Just remember something, everyone: no matter how bad anything gets or how catastrophic any result is, Trump will claim it was what he intended, and that he was right about it, and a substantial chunk of the American electorate will praise him as a genius who saw something nobody else could have and who is a winner.

The propaganda outcome of this debacle has already been written.
 

cdub55

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Just remember something, everyone: no matter how bad anything gets or how catastrophic any result is, Trump will claim it was what he intended, and that he was right about it, and a substantial chunk of the American electorate will praise him as a genius who saw something nobody else could have and who is a winner.

The propaganda outcome of this debacle has already been written.
Also remember that no matter the outcome of this there will be a substantial chunk of the American electorate who will criticize their President. You can't have it both ways. The one's who complain the most about Trump are the same one's who ignored and made excuses for every single misstep or error that Biden made.
 
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rolltide_21

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I remember my days in ten Hoor when the professor explained that Indian workers demanded tariff protection against the "over-productive American workers." Yes, Indian (and Vietnamese, and until recently Chinese) workers get paid less, but they are also much less productive (defined as GDP produced/man-hour worked). American workers are the most productive in the the world (or at least they were, I have not seen recent data). This is due to automation, reliability of infrastructure, rule of law (the factory owner does not expect his factory to be seized by the government and "nationalized," etc. There is a risk premium to borrow money to build a factory in Myanmar if the government might seize your factory after it is built. The risk premium shows up in the interest rate charged by lenders. That is not an issue in the US.).

If tariffs are such a bad thing (and, for the record, I believe they are), why did India, China, Canada, and Europe have so many of them before the trade war? Why have their economies not collapsed under the weight of their national tariffs?
This happened. I’ve made many trips to Burma. Pepsi set up a plant and distribution center outside Yangon. The first military government (disbanded in 2008) game in, took it over, and rebranded it Star Cola. Ran pepsi out of the country. Pepsi lost all resources and obviously took a loss.
 

Tidewater

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This happened. I’ve made many trips to Burma. Pepsi set up a plant and distribution center outside Yangon. The first military government (disbanded in 2008) game in, took it over, and rebranded it Star Cola. Ran pepsi out of the country. Pepsi lost all resources and obviously took a loss.
Investing in any country must take into account the likelihood of the local government seizing their property. As the action of a sovereign state, who would the victim appeal to for relief?
Anyway, determining who has the comparative advantage is never as simple as comparing minimum wage (or even average wage) in country A and B.
 

bamamc1

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Also remember that no matter the outcome of this there will be a substantial chunk of the American electorate who will criticize their President. You can't have it both ways. The one's who complain the most about Trump are the same one's who ignored and made excuses for every single misstep or error that Biden made.
You left out the fact that they are completely shocked they were duped by his staff who said he was perfectly fine mentally.
 

Tidewater

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I would appreciate some clarity on the economics involved, so if someone has a reputable source, I'd appreciate a link.

Let's look at our biggest trading partner, Canada
The US exported $348 billion to Canada in 2024. The commodities exported were broadly:
What are the most egregious tariffs imposed by Canada on American goods?

Dairy products are the ones Trump tweeted about. Politicfact explained it this way:

"After a small fixed quota of U.S. exports is reached, Canada imposes a tariff on any dairy products brought into the country, with the level varying a bit depending on the specific product. For instance, fluid milk is 241 percent, cheese is 245.5 percent, ice cream is 277 percent, cream is 292.5 percent, and butter is 298.5 percent."

So, depending on the statistics, it is technically honest to say that Canada admits US dairy products at a very low tariff (up to the quota amount). Once the quota is expended, however, the tariffs Canada imposes are so large as to be almost prohibitive. Thus, it is also technically true to say Canada imposes ~270% tariff on US dairy products (which Trump tweeted and which Politicifact calls "a reasonable mid-range estimate.")
So, is Canada harming US dairy producers? Sure. How high should the US set tariffs on Canadian products? That is subject for debate.
If I was a US producer who manufactured machinery, nuclear reactors or boilers, I'd be nervous. If I was a Wisconsin dairy farmer, I'd be cheering Trump on.
 

mdb-tpet

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You left out the fact that they are completely shocked they were duped by his staff who said he was perfectly fine mentally.
There is a big difference between being sane and level headed vs. being physically fit enough to lead. I will gladly say neither man is up to the task of leading our country. So far, I'd much rather have the previous administration's weaker leadership where I'm not whipsawed daily by random EOs, watching my spouse's work get cancelled by Kennedy, and losing massive chunks of our retirement savings.
 
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