Trump's Tariffs and Possible Trade War

[bamaga]

Im not going to wholesale disparage the ideas behind the tariffs, but my fear is it will do irreparable long term harm to the U.S. economy and this Nations position in financial markets, as other countries will move to mitigate the affect the U.S. has in the future by decoupling their alliance with the U.S. economy/Dollar/ financial sector.

 

[bamaga]

Im not going to wholesale disparage the ideas behind the tariffs, but my fear is it will do irreparable long term harm to the U.S. economy and this Nations position in financial markets, as other countries will move to mitigate the affect the U.S. has in the future by decoupling their alliance with the U.S. economy/Dollar/ financial sector.

I will add, this is exactly what Trump wants, an end to the Global economy. IMO . It fits with America First, which I don’t disagree with on the surface, but it took decades to get to where we are, you can’t disassemble it in a matter of weeks without huge repercussions.

 

[bamaga]

Donald Trump says he is not looking at pausing tariffs as US markets close after rocky day – as it happened

US president, when asked about considering a pause in global tariffs, says ‘We’re not looking at that’

www.theguardian.com

It will get ugly from the opening bell. Patiently, nervously waiting to see my Net worth drop even more.

 

[bamaga]

Not just the stock market, the crypto market was suppose to be somewhat immune to traditional economic fluctuations. We see that’s not true. I’m heavily invested in Ethereum, XRP, Solano and ADA. XRP, ETH have lost half their value since the CryptoPresident took office.

 

[Tidewater]

I'd like to personally congratulate America on all the $2/hour factory jobs that will be coming over from Vietnam.

I remember my days in ten Hoor when the professor explained that Indian workers demanded tariff protection against the "over-productive American workers." Yes, Indian (and Vietnamese, and until recently Chinese) workers get paid less, but they are also much less productive (defined as GDP produced/man-hour worked). American workers are the most productive in the the world (or at least they were, I have not seen recent data). This is due to automation, reliability of infrastructure, rule of law (the factory owner does not expect his factory to be seized by the government and "nationalized," etc. There is a risk premium to borrow money to build a factory in Myanmar if the government might seize your factory after it is built. The risk premium shows up in the interest rate charged by lenders. That is not an issue in the US.).

If tariffs are such a bad thing (and, for the record, I believe they are), why did India, China, Canada, and Europe have so many of them before the trade war? Why have their economies not collapsed under the weight of their national tariffs?

 

[cdub55]

Seems as if the entire board is anti-tariffs. I've seen some things that counter this "chicken little said the sky is falling and I believe him" mindset. The United States government is single handedly the largest purchaser of goods and services in the world. Not to mention we are also the largest importer of goods in the world, meaning we are the biggest buyers in the world! Without people buying your stuff, you don't sell stuff. Walmart and Amazon have made a conglomerate mega-business off leverage and buying power. American citizens have took what the rest of the world will give us. Companies around the world are worried right now about losing our business. The stock market going down doesn't worry me one bit. It actually adds fuel to the fire for these companies to make extreme changes. We will see a mass exodus of companies leaving foreign lands and coming back to America. This is the only way we get back our companies that started here. Why would a company like Nike ever leave a foreign land where they can make goods for pennies on the dollar and exploit the climate laws (or lack thereof) and cheap labor, unless they were slapped with a hefty tariff that decreases their sales in the largest purchasing country in the world? I get it doesn't look good currently, but a massive realignment like this isn't going to go down without a fight from those who want to keep things as they were.

 

[bamamc1]

I have a blast from the past that will certainly warm the hearts of some here this morning:

 

[CrimsonNagus]

@cdub55 So, just more of the same old "it will be better one day" argument. It's not like Nike can just "dust off" it's old American manufacturing plant and have it up to speed soon. It will take them and every other company years, maybe a decade, to "move back home."

I had similar discussion with my mom yesterday. Our church is looking to upgrade our AV systems but has decided to take 3 months to try raise the funds instead of getting a loan. I got no issues with that but, in 3 months the current quote will have expired, and a new quote will probably add 200K to the total cost because of tariffs. My mom's reply was "but if Trump's plan works it could also be cheaper in 3 months". Fox News, because that is all they watch, has convinced folks that there is an American made option for everything, and prices will go down soon.

I had to inform her that no, the few American companies that manufacture video panels cannot do so at a scale or quality compared to Samsung, LG and Japan Display, the 3 leading manufactures of video panel technology in the world. Those companies have built their massive production scale and the quality of those panels over decades, and it is impossible for an American company to do the same in a matter of months.

Look, I'm glad many of you are in a financial position where the coming prices increase will not bother you much. I'm glad many of you, from the way you post, are going to going to weather the store just fine. For a majority of Americans, like me, who live paycheck to paycheck, this is going to be devastating. I don't have the luxury of being able to wait for years until American companies spin up production and bring prices down. You guys can disparage those of us who live paycheck to paycheck all you want. That doesn't change the fact that my financial position is more common in this country than yours. Maybe all these moves by Dictator Don will pay off for the US years from now but, I'm not willing to send my family to the poor house right now just for the chance of something better in an unknown future.

 

[cdub55]

I have a blast from the past that will certainly warm the hearts of some here this morning:

I'm new to politics...Who is this nasty MAGA lady!?

 

[cdub55]

Interesting that countries aren't playing hard ball, as much as some would like you to think, when they are at risk of losing business with the WORLD'S LARGEST BUYER. Leverage Leverage Leverage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909241114693120168

 

[cdub55]

To further my point, here is the total household expenditure by country:

1) US $18.8 Trillion
2) China 7 Trillion
3) Japan 2.5 Trillion
4) Germany 2.3 Trillion
5) India 2.2 Trillion
6) UK 2.1 Trillion
7) France 1.7 Trillion
8) Italy 1.4 Trillion
9) Canada 1.3 Trillion
10) Brazil 1.2 Trillion

There simply isn't enough purchasing power and demand in other countries to pivot away from the US consumer.

 

[AWRTR]

To further my point, here is the total household expenditure by country:

1) US $18.8 Trillion
2) China 7 Trillion
3) Japan 2.5 Trillion
4) Germany 2.3 Trillion
5) India 2.2 Trillion
6) UK 2.1 Trillion
7) France 1.7 Trillion
8) Italy 1.4 Trillion
9) Canada 1.3 Trillion
10) Brazil 1.2 Trillion

There simply isn't enough purchasing power and demand in other countries to pivot away from the US consumer.

I haven't seen those numbers. That's a really interesting point. The US market is necessary for other countries to be able to prosper simply because of the buying power. That's some major leverage. I still don't like that the tariffs aren't really reciprocal, but if this wild stuff works in the end it will be a wild day. I'm not convinced it will, but I've just got to hope.

 

[bamaga]

again, I assert that I won’t broadstroke dismiss tariffs as bad. For years they worked to protect US manufacturing jobs. After that they were used as penalties for bad situations. Even now, it’s the suddenness of it all, although we were warned. The intended shock value Is hard to come to grips with.
But, If we can’t make fun of a president or our current economic situation , what should we all do? Stand up and cheer for withering IRA’s and 401k’s? I was previously in an economic downturn overall with several life’s tragedies piled atop one another in recent years. Fortunately, I am above water treading furiously , laughing at my misfortune and powering through as best I can. Hopefully, many fellow Americans are doing the same. The future will be brighter, the future will be brighter, the future will be brighter…

 

[spidermayin]

@cdub55 So, just more of the same old "it will be better one day" argument. It's not like Nike can just "dust off" it's old American manufacturing plant and have it up to speed soon. It will take them and every other company years, maybe a decade, to "move back home."

I had similar discussion with my mom yesterday. Our church is looking to upgrade our AV systems but has decided to take 3 months to try raise the funds instead of getting a loan. I got no issues with that but, in 3 months the current quote will have expired, and a new quote will probably add 200K to the total cost because of tariffs. My mom's reply was "but if Trump's plan works it could also be cheaper in 3 months". Fox News, because that is all they watch, has convinced folks that there is an American made option for everything, and prices will go down soon.

I had to inform her that no, the few American companies that manufacture video panels cannot do so at a scale or quality compared to Samsung, LG and Japan Display, the 3 leading manufactures of video panel technology in the world. Those companies have built their massive production scale and the quality of those panels over decades, and it is impossible for an American company to do the same in a matter of months.

Look, I'm glad many of you are in a financial position where the coming prices increase will not bother you much. I'm glad many of you, from the way you post, are going to going to weather the store just fine. For a majority of Americans, like me, who live paycheck to paycheck, this is going to be devastating. I don't have the luxury of being able to wait for years until American companies spin up production and bring prices down. You guys can disparage those of us who live paycheck to paycheck all you want. That doesn't change the fact that my financial position is more common in this country than yours. Maybe all these moves by Dictator Don will pay off for the US years from now but, I'm not willing to send my family to the poor house right now just for the chance of something better in an unknown future.

I was speaking to someone a little while back and he worked for an local organization that uses drones. He said they had to buy american and could no longer purchase DJI brand drones. He said they spent around $40,000 on a drone that was four times more expensive than a much higher quality DJI drone. Just because something is made in America doesn't mean it's going to be better. Are you willing to pay four times as much for a lower quality product just because you're "helping American companies".

 

[Bamaro]

Market is going nuts!

 

[bamaga]

This just in, stock market and Crypto markets are in the green right now. let’s toast to a hearty rebound.

edit. I spoke too soon.

 

[Bamaro]

Looks like it was a false rumor about a 90 day pause in tariffs

 

[CrimsonNagus]

I was speaking to someone a little while back and he worked for an local organization that uses drones. He said they had to buy american and could no longer purchase DJI brand drones. He said they spent around $40,000 on a drone that was four times more expensive than a much higher quality DJI drone. Just because something is made in America doesn't mean it's going to be better. Are you willing to pay four times as much for a lower quality product just because you're "helping American companies".

No, no I am not. That was the whole point of my post you quoted.

There aren't even viable American made options for so many products. One example, even some TV manufactures in the US source components from foreign companies. There is no way around it for the foreseeable future.

 

[spidermayin]

No, no I am not. That was the whole point of my post you quoted.

There aren't even viable American made options for so many products. One example, even some TV manufactures in the US source components from foreign companies. There is no way around it for the foreseeable future.

Oh, I agree with you lol. I was just trying to talk to the same people you were talking to.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I have a blast from the past that will certainly warm the hearts of some here this morning:

Republicans thinking "let's quote liberal Democratic economics" is a win has to be the funniest thing I've seen this week, topping even my annual rewatch of "The Naked Gun" on Thursday.

Besides, Donnie Bunko has given us the same type of multiple choice defense of his clownishness that defense attorneys of guilty clients (like OJ) offer, and his reliable sycophants even more:
- this is to get better trade deals
- this is only a tool
- this is a great way to raise revenue
- but the Democrats also did this
- he's playing 47-dimensional chess
- he's "tough" (he's the biggest sissy ever elected but then again the whole country has a "man" problem)