Trump's Tariffs and Possible Trade War

crimsonaudio

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As I said above, I'm no economist and there are those here who have forgotten more about large scale economics than I'll ever know...

But the following thread is interesting - I don't fully understand all the ramifications, but it feels like a high risk/reward chance to restructure the US economy and how it integrates with the global economy.


I don't like trump but I also don't think he's as stupid as many here seem to think. Not proclaiming him a genius or anything, just thinking there's likely some semblance of a plan here. And if so, I'm hoping it works.
 
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mdb-tpet

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As I said above, I'm no economist and there are those here who have forgotten more about large scale economics than I'll ever know...

But the following thread is interesting - I don't fully understand all the ramifications, but it feels like a high risk/reward chance to restructure the US economy and how it integrates with the global economy.


I don't like trump but I also don't think he's as stupid as many here seem to think. Not proclaiming him a genius or anything, just thinking there's likely some semblance of a plan here. And if so, I'm hoping it works.
If Biden or Obama had even dared to mention any moves remotely like these tariffs, the GOP would have beyond gone nuclear fighting them. It's really disquieting to see the entire GOP so afraid of the President that they were willing to give him full access to tariffs and even try to defend this ham handed plan. If a politician is going to rewrite our entire economic system design all at once, we dang sure should have some debate as the the specific intentions and expected outcomes with measurables and timelines. I agree the President isn't stupid (early onset dementia maybe), but he is myopic and careless about the long term economic and structural harm he's going to starting to cause to main street USA. He's acting just like an overly confident CEO that just isn't concerned about how his plan affects the employees of the company he's running, which is why I have believed for a long time that CEOs do not make good political leaders. CEOs don't generally care (or normally even have to) to get political consensus from the workers or wait for a long term plan to play out properly.
 

Huckleberry

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As I said above, I'm no economist and there are those here who have forgotten more about large scale economics than I'll ever know...

But the following thread is interesting - I don't fully understand all the ramifications, but it feels like a high risk/reward chance to restructure the US economy and how it integrates with the global economy.


I don't like trump but I also don't think he's as stupid as many here seem to think. Not proclaiming him a genius or anything, just thinking there's likely some semblance of a plan here. And if so, I'm hoping it works.
I’m not an economist either, so if that column actually reflects reality, I’d like to have some further explanation. However, there are a few points that seem off

@elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).

If the numbers are accurate, there’s no guarantee that the rate of cuts is sustainable. And with the misinformation from DOGE on exact amounts, it’s hard to know the actual dollars being cut.

Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.

If reducing the budget is the aim, this seems counterproductive (and probably just talk).

And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.

This is a beyond-frightening proposal

Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.

Not an amount that really matters


The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in

But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.


Here’s another problem: If companies can’t be sure that the policies are going to be in place for the years it will take to scale up by building new facilities, why would they take the chance? Trump could change his mind, Congress could alter the plans, or a new president could reverse the Trump policy.


Maybe I’m wrong and this is the plan. If so, I’d certainly rather it succeed than fail. However, I’ve not seen this endorsement of Trump’s actions from sources. I’d like to know more.

Here’s an analysis that addresses some of the possibilities proposed in the column:

 
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Crimson1967

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Trump will be making another golf trip this weekend to host an event backed by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, he won’t be on hand to receive the bodies of four soldiers killed in Lithuania. No word if bars will be buying them beers and posting pictures of it on social media.
 

Its On A Slab

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Trump will be making another golf trip this weekend to host an event backed by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, he won’t be on hand to receive the bodies of four soldiers killed in Lithuania. No word if bars will be buying them beers and posting pictures of it on social media.
Ah, but he doth not weareth the tan suit. Ergo, play on Mr. President.

 

JDCrimson

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And you really think Trump can thread this needle?

As I said above, I'm no economist and there are those here who have forgotten more about large scale economics than I'll ever know...

But the following thread is interesting - I don't fully understand all the ramifications, but it feels like a high risk/reward chance to restructure the US economy and how it integrates with the global economy.


I don't like trump but I also don't think he's as stupid as many here seem to think. Not proclaiming him a genius or anything, just thinking there's likely some semblance of a plan here. And if so, I'm hoping it works.
 

Huckleberry

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I don't know what to think.

I'm fairly certain he's not as stupid as many here believe he is.

I'm also fairly certain we need to shake things up, so I'm hopeful it will work.
There's shaking things up and then there's just plain crazy. A huge majority of economists have grave doubts about what Trump is doing.

As you know, I see things from a different perspective: I'm fairly certain that Trump isn't as smart, clever, or sane as those who consistently support his policies think he is.

Do you really feel positive and encouraged about what he's doing or are you just hoping for the best (since it appears we're stuck with his decisions)?
 
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crimsonaudio

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Do you really feel positive and encouraged about what he's doing or are you just hoping for the best (since it appears we're stuck with his decisions)?
I already said above that I don't know what to think. I trust economists about as much as I trust career politicians as they've also been telling us how strong the economy is despite being >$36T in debt.

Maybe trump doesn't care (about us or even his legacy - though I doubt the latter is true) or maybe because he doesn't feel beholden to the electorate he feels the freedom to do what's needed where every other politician would be terrified to do so.

And let me be clear - while I don't think trump is stupid I also don't think he's a genius.

So yeah, it's 100% hoping for the best since we're stuck with it.
 
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selmaborntidefan

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I'd like to personally congratulate America on all the $2/hour factory jobs that will be coming over from Vietnam.
 
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