As I said above, I'm no economist and there are those here who have forgotten more about large scale economics than I'll ever know...
But the following thread is interesting - I don't fully understand all the ramifications, but it feels like a high risk/reward chance to restructure the US economy and how it integrates with the global economy.
@tanvi_ratna: Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset. $9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting. One announcement just set a dozen whe...…
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I don't like trump but I also don't think he's as stupid as many here seem to think. Not proclaiming him a genius or anything, just thinking there's likely some semblance of a plan here. And if so, I'm hoping it works.
I’m not an economist either, so if that column actually reflects reality, I’d like to have some further explanation. However, there are a few points that seem off
@elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May).
If the numbers are accurate, there’s no guarantee that the rate of cuts is sustainable. And with the misinformation from DOGE on exact amounts, it’s hard to know the actual dollars being cut.
Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.
If reducing the budget is the aim, this seems counterproductive (and probably just talk).
And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.
This is a beyond-frightening proposal
Estimates suggest they could raise over $700 million within the first year.
Not an amount that really matters
The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in
But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.
Here’s another problem: If companies can’t be sure that the policies are going to be in place for the years it will take to scale up by building new facilities, why would they take the chance? Trump could change his mind, Congress could alter the plans, or a new president could reverse the Trump policy.
Maybe I’m wrong and this is the plan. If so, I’d certainly rather it succeed than fail. However, I’ve not seen this endorsement of Trump’s actions from sources. I’d like to know more.
Here’s an analysis that addresses some of the possibilities proposed in the column: