Trump's Tariffs and Possible Trade War

Tidewater

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I wonder when we will start to see prices effected on Refrigerators, Ranges, Washers, TVs etc
Yep, there's the rub.
Even if the protectionist arguments were completely valid, how long would it take Westinghouse to build a factory in the US, train employees and get product to market if they started today?
 
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Tidewater

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Now we have this...

It might as well be an embargo between the 2 nations at this tariff rate.

China Imposes 84% Tariff on US Exports
Since China runs a decades-long trade surplus with the US, this does seem to be more self-defeating for China than the US.

On the other hand, when FDR imposed a oil embargo on another western Pacific military power, they reacted by starting a world war and invading every country in the neighborhood.
 
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JDCrimson

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Which one has more shelf life, production or consumption? We are about to find out. Im betting production in a communist country has more shelf life...

Since Shinea runs a decades-long trade surplus with the US, this does seem to be more self-defeating for China than the US.

On the other hand, when FDR imposed a oil embargo on another western Pacific military power, they reacted by starting a world war and invading every country in the neighborhood.
 

Tidewater

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US-China trade imbalance since 1985.
17982 (1).jpeg
The data stops at 2023. If a total trade embargo happens, China would be saying "No, no. You keep your $279B/year. We do not want your money."
China can soften that blow by trying to new buyers. The rest of the world is about to have a bunch of Chinese products dumped on them at fire sale prices.
Long term, can China afford to have hundreds of millions of un-employed or under-employed workers? Peter Zeihan has argued that labor shortages have driven up wages in China and I have no reason to doubt him, so maybe a trade war would not hurt China as much as it would 10 or 20 years ago.
 

Tidewater

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Which one has more shelf life, production or consumption? We are about to find out. Im betting production in a communist country has more shelf life...
For clarity, what do you mean by "shelf-life" of production or consumption? "Shelf-life" normally means how good a on a shelf remains good and when it becomes no loinger consumable.
I do not understand what it means in this context.
 

JDCrimson

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I mean if you shutdown our consumption v their production which one can go longer doing without...

For clarity, what do you mean by "shelf-life" of production or consumption? "Shelf-life" normally means how good a on a shelf remains good and when it becomes no loinger consumable.
I do not understand what it means in this context.
 
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cdub55

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Common sense would say those who produce could "outlast" those who consume. The monkey in the wrench in the whole ordeal is this...Are those who produce willing to lose billions of dollars in business to those who consume? It is like I always tell the car salesman when negotiating, "I know you got to make some money, but you don't have to make it all from me". It will be interesting to see how this turns out.
 

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