One might argue that Rose "fixed" games simply by virtue of being the manager and/or by not knowing when to say when. The Reds finished 2nd in their division 4 straight years under Rose (1985-88), and in their first full season without him won the World Series (1990). The last 6 years of his career, which account for 991 of his hits, he had a cumulative WAR of -.3.
Even then there was the vibe that his fixation on breaking the hit record probably came at the expense of the team. I say this with the recognition that I'm sure Marge Schott (and others) valued the marketing buzz, so it wasn't just Rose's fixation. But the whole thing was a bit of a ridiculous circus. And for a guy who claimed to be all about the baseball, it rang hollow.
I want you to know I dispute none of what you say here. Rose was brought back to Cincinnati specifically to draw the crowds and break the record, the pennant being secondary in 1985. There 100% WAS an obsession that bordered on insanity, an obvious "let's make some money off this thing." Grifting - legal but grifting - if you will.
Having said that, in Rose's first year as a manager, the Reds improved by 19 games in the standings and went a stellar 19-9 in September, closing a gap of 10 games on August 27 to 5.5 in a month. The Dodgers didn't exactly play poorly (18-12) in September, so it's more of a case of LA being better than the Reds, which wasn't a surprise. When Cincinnati finished second in 1985, it was a meteoric rise for a team that had been lousy for three years until Rose arrived. His second year, they were three games worse and lost the division by ten, largely because they went 2-16 during late April and early May and fell so far behind they had no chance. Rose only played half the season and though he never "officially" retired, he played his final game on August 17. Perhaps no so coincidentally, the Reds had their hottest streak of the season immediately following his removal from the lineup, going 14-4 in their next 18 contests.
The Reds actually won two games fewer in 1987 than they did in 1986 - but nobody noticed because they finished second. AGAIN. And were only six games out this time. In fact, the Reds won only one game less than that year's world champion Twins did in the regular season. In 1988, the Reds again finished second and improved to 87 wins - three more than 1987 and in all honesty attributable not to the Reds being better but to their claiming three more wins from the utterly atrocious Atlanta Braves than the previous year.
In all honesty, the second-place finishes covered up the fact that Rose was NOT that great a manager. He wasn't terrible, but he wasn't as good as his finishes suggested either.
As far as the Reds winning the World Series, I'm not so sure that makes a compelling arugment:
WIN TOTALS REDS
1985 - 89
1986 - 86
1987 - 84
1988 - 87
1989 - 75
1990 - 91
1991 - 74
1992 - 90
The 1991 Reds were worse than the 1989 team that could be said to have been distracted or at a minimum led by a distracted leader. But what exactly were the differences between the 1989-90-91 Reds BESIDES the manager?
C - Jeff Reed replaced by Joe Oliver
1B - Todd Benzinger replaced by the better Hal Morris
2B - 3 different guys in 3 years
SS - Barry Larkin
3B - Chris Sabo
RF - Paul O'Neill
CF - Eric Davis
LF - Ken Griffey followed by Billy Hatcher
Starters: Browning, Jackson, and Rijo all 3 years (R Mahler in 1989), plus Jack Armstrong's career year in 1990
Relievers: Charlton and Dibble; traded John Franco for Randy Myers in December 1989
Chris Sabo only played about 1/2 the games in 1989 because he was injured. This after he won ROY in 1988. Eric Davis missed 1/2 of 1991 with carryover from his injury in the 1990 World Series. The Reds actually had a losing record after the All-Star break in 1990 (41-42), but they had a large enough lead to take home the pennant.
In other words, while I AGREE with you that Rose's managerial status MIGHT lend itself to "thrown" games, I just don't think the cited evidence supports it. Of course, the argument that I DO accept is the fact he avoided betting on some games - which sends the signal to gamblers that "I think we're gonna lose." In such a case, he's as guilty as if he'd rigged it.
Great post btw.