Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

[crimsonaudio]

Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults.

Thread by @GrandpaRoy2 on Thread Reader App

@GrandpaRoy2: Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults. “The enemy is increasingly mastering the ‘playing second fiddle’ stra...…

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[Tidewater]

Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults.

Thread by @GrandpaRoy2 on Thread Reader App

@GrandpaRoy2: Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults. “The enemy is increasingly mastering the ‘playing second fiddle’ stra...…

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Eventually in the Russo-German War of 1941-45, the germans started defending forweard with only a picket line, knowing that the Red Army would plaster the front with artillery before attacking. This kept the bulk of the German Army from getting plastered at the very start of a Red Army offensive.
Sound like the Ukrainians are doing something similar.

 

[JDCrimson]

Eventually in the Russo-German War of 1941-45, the germans started defending forweard with only a picket line, knowing that the Red Army would plaster the front with artillery before attacking. This kept the bulk of the German Army from getting plastered at the very start of a Red Army offensive.
Sound like the Ukrainians are doing something similar.

So are we saying Ukraine can retake a lot this occupied territory when its ready? Because its thinly patrolled?

 

[Tidewater]

So are we saying Ukraine can retake a lot this occupied territory when its ready? Because its thinly patrolled?

Not really what I'm saying. The Ukrainians can exact a steep price for a bit of land lost, and even, if necessary, counterattack and retake it. The Wehrmacht were infamous for counterattacking lost positions.

When an American assault succeeded in taking a position, extreme confusion reined. One guy has 200 rounds left, the next one has 10. Need to cross-level ammo. Holding that position relies on interlocking fields of fire ("Smith, you shoot everyone between the barn and that oak tree. Jones, you shoot everyone from the oak tree to that willow next to the creek.") But you have not been on the objective before (after all, you just seized it from the Jerries), so until the squad leader comes over and points out everybody's sector, nobody knows for sure who is responsible for enemy troops between the barn and the oak tree. Smith may think Jones will take the latter sector, but, unbeknownst to Smith, Jones if dead 50 meters back, so no one is taking the sector from the oak tree to that willow next to the creek. Wounded have to be evacuated and somebody has to carry the non-ambulatory wounded, Etc. Etc. You have to experience it once to understand the degree of confusion. That is when the Krauts counterattack.

Ukrainians appear to be doing something similar.

 

[Tidewater]

I had never heard of this guy, but his judgments seem judicious. Worth a listen.

The casualty situation in Russia appears to be pretty bad.

 

[JDCrimson]

I hope its true. The mobilization of troops Russia started in the far east furtherest away from Moscow. That mobilization is moving westward ever closer to Moscow at they exhaust all the prisoners and lower class. The war will eventually get into the quick for Russia and Putin.

 

[dtgreg]

Not really what I'm saying. The Ukrainians can exact a steep price for a bit of land lost, and even, if necessary, counterattack and retake it. The Wehrmacht were infamous for counterattacking lost positions.

When an American assault succeeded in taking a position, extreme confusion reined. One guy has 200 rounds left, the next one has 10. Need to cross-level ammo. Holding that position relies on interlocking fields of fire ("Smith, you shoot everyone between the barn and that oak tree. Jones, you shoot everyone from the oak tree to that willow next to the creek.") But you have not been on the objective before (after all, you just seized it from the Jerries), so until the squad leader comes over and points out everybody's sector, nobody knows for sure who is responsible for enemy troops between the barn and the oak tree. Smith may think Jones will take the latter sector, but, unbeknownst to Smith, Jones if dead 50 meters back, so no one is taking the sector from the oak tree to that willow next to the creek. Wounded have to be evacuated and somebody has to carry the non-ambulatory wounded, Etc. Etc. You have to experience it once to understand the degree of confusion. That is when the Krauts counterattack.

Ukrainians appear to be doing something similar.

Russians have no medics.

 

[Tidewater]

I hope its true. The mobilization of troops Russia started in the far east furtherest away from Moscow. That mobilization is moving westward ever closer to Moscow at they exhaust all the prisoners and lower class. The war will eventually get into the quick for Russia and Putin.

Military conscription has not left Moscovy alone, but it has relied disproportionately on non-Russian areas of the Federation (Buryatia, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, Tatarstan, etc.), as the speaker said. How much longer will those areas tolerate the abuse? Who knows? A Russian general in the 1800s said, "The harder you hit them, the longer they stay quiet."

 

[Tidewater]

Mark Galeotti (a Brit of Italian extraction) is one of my favorite commentators on Russia.
His show

In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine​

Contained some interesting data.

• 90% of the Abrams we gave Ukraine are dead for one reason or another.
• Ukraine is using 9,000 drones a day.
• In 2024, Ukraine fores 5 million artillery rounds.

Worth a listen.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Overnight, Ukraine carried out its deepest successful cruise missile strike of the war, hitting Russia's Votkinsky Plant, a ballistic missile manufacturer located almost 900 miles behind the front line. Seen here, a salvo of Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles headed into Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025034807890371041

 

[Padreruf]

Yesterday I changed my internet and tv service--the young man who did the install was nice, worked diligently and rapidly...and was from the Ukraine. He left @ 1 ½ years ago with his wife (who is an American citizen) and immigrated here. He was a sharp young man who was working really hard...even rewired the input into my house so that the modern could be more centrally located. I'll not share the name of the company so as to keep his id confidential...I did say that I felt sad for his country and he said it was very sad to all of them as well.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Boy, was I wrong - I completely believed Russia would eventually grind Ukraine down, yet here we are...

Over 4 years of war, Putin’s army has advanced less than 60 kilometers beyond the pre-war line in Donetsk Oblast, while suffering losses per square kilometer that surpass even Stalin-era records.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026311699301544087

 

[Padreruf]

Saw somewhere that the USSR is executing their soldiers who refuse to do "meat charges" trying to over run Ukrainian troops. That will sure raise morale...

 

[Tidewater]

Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults.

Thread by @GrandpaRoy2 on Thread Reader App

@GrandpaRoy2: Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults. “The enemy is increasingly mastering the ‘playing second fiddle’ stra...…

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I had heard elsewhere about "flag ops," where a handful of soldiers sneak forward and get a drone photo of the soldiers on the objective flying a Russian flag, because commanders get paid bonuses for objectives "seized" (even though their troops really were just there long enough to whip out a flag and get a photo of it in situ).

 

[Tidewater]

Boy, was I wrong - I completely believed Russia would eventually grind Ukraine down, yet here we are...

Over 4 years of war, Putin’s army has advanced less than 60 kilometers beyond the pre-war line in Donetsk Oblast, while suffering losses per square kilometer that surpass even Stalin-era records.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026311699301544087

I think most of the ground gains have been in the initial weeks, especially along the Sea of Azov. So the gains in Donetsk were secondary.
"Nibbling" since then in Donetsk and elsewhere..
To be winning, I think Ukraine needs to exact probably 8 to 1 casualties. Maybe they are doing it. I hope so.

 

[JDCrimson]

To me the winning strategy for Ukraine is to move the line of contact forward or back whichever keeps Russia throwing men at the line to be killed. If they are doing this, then I think Ukraine is winning irrespective of the territory lost. But I do believe they should nudge forward in some other parts of the contact line.

 

[Huckleberry]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026359124095594688

I am grateful to each of the 107 countries that stood with Ukraine today in defense of life at the UN. The General Assembly adopted our resolution in support of a lasting peace, with clear calls for a full ceasefire and the return of our people. These are the right and necessary steps. And we will keep working actively to achieve peace, together with our partners.





Note the abstentions...

 

[Tidewater]

Just found and read a couple of articles about resistance in occupied portions fo Ukraine.
Jon Armstrong (UK), "Violent Resistance in Occupied Ukraine"

"the ability of the Ukrainian government to direct and assure their agents’ activity has been degraded by limited pre-invasion preparation and insufficient means of influence. Additionally, although violent resistance networks maintain a broad spectrum of capabilities and access, disproportionate use of them against illegitimately installed Russian officials has decreased their output against Ukrainian strategic objectives."

Ukraine did not adopt a law covering resistance to foreign occupation until the summer fo 2021. It had only begun to actually prepare for resistance when Russia invaded. Way too late. Armstrong argues that the resistance spends too much time whacking Russian administrators and Quislings, and not enough conducting ops coordinated with Ukrainian Army.
I take issue with this for two reasons. One whacking occupiers and Quislings is of value because it shows the resistance is alive and occupiers/Quislings are easy targets. Two, Armstrong underestimates just how difficult it is to recruit, vet, train, equip and lead resistors. Every resistor killed attacking is incredibly difficult and dangerous to replace.

The Next is Oleksandr Danylyuk's "Against the Odds: Lessons from the Ukrainian Resistance Movement".

"With the presence of artillery and missile weapons capable of targeting the enemy’s entire operational depth, as well as strike UAVs capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than 1,000 km, the need for direct actions has significantly decreased, and is reduced to extremely niche tasks and objectives."

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I had never heard of this guy, but his judgments seem judicious. Worth a listen.

The casualty situation in Russia appears to be pretty bad.

Dr. Tim Wilson -- I didn't know who he was until a few months ago, and have seen some of his stuff since then. He certainly gives the impression of having considered positions. The British accent probably doesn't hurt on that front.

In addition to his assessment of recent events and trends, I'd be interested to hear what he thinks will happen in the future and when. Not asking for dates, but rather time frames -- as in, 90 days out or sooner? Six months? A year? I'd also be interested to hear the basis for his predictions.

Not questioning or saying he's full of it at all -- rather, what do you think will happen, when and why. Based on his delivery (both content and style), I'd bet he has some thoughts on that.

I'm certainly no Tidewater or Padreruf on the subject, but my understanding is that Russia is usually extremely hard, but brittle. IOW, they're really tough until all of a sudden they disintegrate. Does he think that will happen? If so, what will be the first signs?

I love asking questions of people who know what they're talking about.

 

[Tidewater]

One of the gob-smacking things I heard from a Brit colleague who has studied the British prep for resistance in 1940 should the Jerries invade.
In the summer of 1940, MI5 got local men to select potential resistors. Frequently these were local post-masters, They knew who lived where and knew a bit of the character of local men. They nominated resistors, MI5 contacted, gave them the pitch, then trained and equipped them.
If the Germans did invade, the first thing that MI5 ordered the resistance teams to do was to kill the man who had nominated them, because that man was the only person who would know where all the teams were (the teams did not know anything about the other teams). Should the Gestapo catch that man, hook up the field telephone to their gonads, and commence to crankin', they were sure to talk. So, in an incredible act of cold-bloodedness, MI5 told the team leaders to go and kill the man who had nominated them.

Recruiting and vetting in resistance is that serious.