Abigail Spanberger and the Virginia Democrats.

[4Q Basket Case]

they literally just won a statewide election/referendum where they stated their true intentions

Fair point.

When I wrote that I was thinking about Spanberger's election and Biden's where both ran as moderates, but governed far to the left of where they presented themselves. Also Newsom who is clearly (1) already running for President, and (2) trying his best to distance himself from his actions as Governor of California.

And CrimsonJazz asks a good question about how it is that the RNC wasn't screaming bloody murder about this.

As I stated in my original post, it's not so much the gerrymandering itself -- that's gone on for centuries. It's the degree to which the Virginia Dems took it, and the nakedness of the power grab because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it.

They might or might not be right about that last part. We'll have to see how the court case plays out.

 

[92tide]

Fair point.

When I wrote that I was thinking about Spanberger's election and Biden's where both ran as moderates, but governed far to the left of where they presented themselves. Also Newsom who is clearly (1) already running for President, and (2) trying his best to distance himself from his actions as Governor of California.

And CrimsonJazz asks a good question about how it is that the RNC wasn't screaming bloody murder about this.

As I stated in my original post, it's not so much the gerrymandering itself -- that's gone on for centuries. It's the degree to which the Virginia Dems took it, and the nakedness of the power grab because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it.

They might or might not be right about that last part. We'll have to see how the court case plays out.

none of the folks complaining about virginia doing this were saying much about texas' naked power grab because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it. that's in addition to all of the other trump/gop naked power grabs because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it. sadly, they are mostly correct and are getting away with it. i'm glad to see the democrats punch back for a change

 

[crimsonaudio]

none of the folks complaining about virginia doing this were saying much about texas' naked power grab because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it. that's in addition to all of the other trump/gop naked power grabs because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it. sadly, they are mostly correct and are getting away with it. i'm glad to see the democrats punch back for a change

Because states like Illinois took the cake until recently.

At some point, we all have to stand up to this silliness or just give up and let TPTB do whatever we want. Currently, both the dems and the repubs seem fine with these things as long as their team is the one doing it.

 

[92tide]

Because states like Illinois took the cake until recently.

At some point, we all have to stand up to this silliness or just give up and let TPTB do whatever we want. Currently, both the dems and the repubs seem fine with these things as long as their team is the one doing it.

fwiw, based on this article from 2017, these are the ten most gerrymandered states in the early 10's
north carolina, maryland, pennsylvania, west virginia, kentucky, louisiana, utah, texas, arkansas, and ohio, in that order.

https://medium.com/rantt/the-top-10-most-gerrymandered-states-in-america-bd962843ba1f

as i said above, i'll happily support a nationwide effort to end gerrymandering.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Fair point.

When I wrote that I was thinking about Spanberger's election and Biden's where both ran as moderates, but governed far to the left of where they presented themselves. Also Newsom who is clearly (1) already running for President, and (2) trying his best to distance himself from his actions as Governor of California.

And CrimsonJazz asks a good question about how it is that the RNC wasn't screaming bloody murder about this.

As I stated in my original post, it's not so much the gerrymandering itself -- that's gone on for centuries. It's the degree to which the Virginia Dems took it, and the nakedness of the power grab because they believed there was nothing anybody could do about it.

They might or might not be right about that last part. We'll have to see how the court case plays out.

Late add : If it were Alabama, there’s a 100% chance that the courts would nullify the map, no matter the necessary logic.

Whether the same rules apply elsewhere, we’ll soon see.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

-- Texas has 38 districts in the USHOR.
-- The current split is 30 Republican, 8 Democrat (not quite 80% Republican / 20% Democrat)
-- The split in the Texas vote for President in 2024 was about 56% Trump, 42% Harris, and the rest Other.
-- If the Texas USHOR split was along the lines of the Presidential vote, it would be about 22 (58%) Republican / 16 (42%) Democrat.

What would be the split if the map the Texas Republicans trying to push through were certified? I honestly don't know, but I'm sure it would be more than 30 / 8 for the reds.

Don't gloat, my blue friends. What would be the split if California, Illinois, Michigan and New York's Congressional districts were divided proportionally along the results of the 2024 Presidential election?

Even then, the 2024 election was so fouled up, it's hard to tell anything. Trump is absolutely the most flawed Republican candidate ever -- worse even than Herbert Hoover, who was at least unquestionably smart.

And the Dems still lost. Because Harris was drafted into the slot when Biden (who had been non compos for at least two years) fouled his bed in the June (July?) debate. She was unqualified in the first place, impossibly unprepared in the second.

So the real questions are:
(1) Could Trump could have beaten a Democrat who could string a sentence together without showing decreased mental capacity?
(2) Could he have done so against a Democrat who didn't constantly highlight a lack of qualifications/preparation?
(2) Would Harris have gotten 40% against a competent Republican?

We'll never know for sure. But my feeling is that the answer to all three questions is no. As a result, all 350 million of us lose.

Here's the national perspective: If the US HOR were split along the 2024 Presidential vote (i.e., total votes for either R or D, throwing out Other), Republicans would have about a 220 to 215 majority. They actually have 219 to 212, with 3 vacancies -- almost exactly on track.

So at the national level, it looks like the red vs. blue gerrymandering pretty much offsets itself.

While I haven't run the numbers, my guess is that when the measures, counter-measures and counter-counter measures are done, you won't see a lot of net movement.

Only more wounds to lick and more grievances to nurse. Just what we need....a more divided electorate.

 

[Tidewater]

they literally just won a statewide election/referendum where they stated their true intentions

Well, not really.

Spanberger promised during the election she would not undertake redistricting. "No interest," she said.

The ad campaigns during the referendum promised "fairness." What is fair to one person is not fair to another. The Democrats meant fair in the sense of counterbalancing in Virginia what Republicans are doing in Texas. This redistricting is certainly not "fair" to the ~45% of Virginians who do not support the Democrats. To them, the Democrats are saying, 'Screw you."

Before the referendum, the Democrats also promised this will be a "temporary measure" until after the 2028 elections, but nobody really believes that, but it gave a fig-leaf of legitimacy to the proceedings.

 

[92tide]

remember, both sides are just awful, but it's only nefarious and bad if the democrats do it

 

[92tide]

For the People Act - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

for all of the pearl clutching and rending of garments that is happening on the right side of the aisle, the republicans could pass something like this right now, probably with a lot of support from the democrats

 

[dtgreg]

When people feel like democracy is no longer a thing and that their votes no longer count, the door has been opened for revolution/terrorism. True, many will simply fade into apathetic obscurity, but the angry ones.....not so much. I see trouble on the horizon and a lot of it.

Here in Huntsville, as I imagine in many if not every American city with a Federal Courthouse, our new Federal Courthouse is now a fortress on a lonely hill. Literally.

We still have the old building, sitting across the street from our apartment building downtown. It is a relic of the "Mayberry" era of yore. The governments, city and Federal, were feverishly trying to complete it before the last election. In case Trump didn't win. They're not scared of black or brown people blowing it up.

 

[Tidewater]

This is a seperate issue from redistricting, but I do find this disappointing.

Virginia Passes Bill Requiring State Agencies To Discriminate Against White Men​

I do not understand why the Democrats cannot abandon racism and sexism and just move beyond. They seem addicted to racism and sexism.
I seriously doubt this law will stand once a federal court gets a hold of it.

 

[dtgreg]

Yes, 1,000%

Texas shouldn't do it either.

Gerrymandering has gone on ever since there were districts for anything. The difference here is the degree.

The Democrats are doing this for the same reason the Deep South enacted Jim Crow laws -- (1) because they feel threatened, (2) because they know they can't win by stating their true intentions. Remember, Spanberger ran as a moderate, but has governed far to the left and people are starting to catch on to the Democrats' bait-and-switch strategy. And (3) because they can.

Virginia voted for Harris 52 / 46 over Trump. Outside of Richmond, the western half of the state voted for Trump. The central and east-central part of the state also voted for Trump. Harris's votes came primarily from Richmond, the burbs of DC, and the southeast part of the state.

View attachment 56952

The new map gives 10 of 11 districts to the Democrats:

View attachment 56953
In a state that was close to evenly split 18 months ago.

For context, the current Alabama map gives two districts to Democrats, yet was heavily criticized as racist, though it did finally pass federal review. The main bone of contention was that the state's population is roughly 65% non-Hispanic white, 25% black, 5-6% Hispanic, and 4-5% other. But 5 of the 7 districts (about 72%) are majority white Republican.

In contrast, Virginia's vote is roughly evenly split, yet over 90% of Virginia's representatives will be Democrats.

That is unconscionable. Can you imagine if Alabama had drawn a new map with only one majority black district? It would be easy to do. If you split the City of Birmingham up into multiple districts, I bet you could have 0 majority black districts. Can you imagine the national uproar?

MSNBC would have it on endless loop 24/7, the NYT, WaPo, LAT and every major news outlet would open branch offices in Birmingham, and you'd hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the moon.

If Virginia had skewed the seats 6-5 or even 7-4 blue, I don't think you'd see the uproar. But 10-1 is a massive overreach. It's a Bronx cheer to half of their population and a childish, "Nyaahh, nyaahh....ya can't touch mEEeee!"

There will be a series of one-upmanship measures, countermeasures and counter-countermeasures in other states (yes, including Texas).

Politics is a fluid medium. Karma sometimes takes her time, but I predict the blues are going to regret the fallout from this move.

"That is unconscionable. Can you imagine if Alabama had drawn a new map with only one majority black district? It would be easy to do.'

They did! Where do you get your news? Dems had to take them to court and even our slaver overlords were too red-faced to let it stand.

 

[crimsonaudio]

For the People Act - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

for all of the pearl clutching and rending of garments that is happening on the right side of the aisle, the republicans could pass something like this right now, probably with a lot of support from the democrats

Or they could just pass something that directly addresses gerrymandering.

 

[dtgreg]

Or they could just pass something that directly addresses gerrymandering.

Trump does not believe in the people governing themselves.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Trump does not believe in the people governing themselves.

LOL, no one in DC does, which is why every bill is laden with extra stuff or outright pork. They all think they know what's better for you and I than we do.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Trump does not believe in the people governing themselves.

A fair enough point that we know is true because literally no one in D.C. believes this. How many of these asshats in congress actually see themselves as "public servants?" The concept of "states' rights" is something they only pretend to support when it benefits their specific party. Outside of that.......nah.

 

[92tide]

Or they could just pass something that directly addresses gerrymandering.

that bill did directly address gerrymandering

the republicans could easily present a bill just doing that and i imagine it would get plenty of bipartisan support

———
The bill would attempt to thwart gerrymandering by requiring states to use independent commissions to draw congressional district lines

 

[CrimsonJazz]

 

[crimsonaudio]

that bill did directly address gerrymandering

the republicans could easily present a bill just doing that and i imagine it would get plenty of bipartisan support

———
The bill would attempt to thwart gerrymandering by requiring states to use independent commissions to draw congressional district lines

My point is it didn't only address gerrymandering - it required early voting, expanded mail-in voting, forced online voter registration, etc. Whether any or all of these things is good or bad isn't the point, it's that they have to all be accepted or all denied. And that's one of the major issues with bills in congress now - they're never smart and short, addressing singular issues - they always include more (often partisan) stuff.

And to your point - the repubs won't. They enjoy the benefits of manipulating the voter blocks as much as the dems do.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

"Ban partisan gerrymandering" is one of the most hilarious "we're for this" things in the history of the world since there's a 0% chance of it ever happening.

"We want the GOP to agree with us to end gerrymandering" is the Democrats' version of "we want you to show you birth certificate to vote" as advocated by modern Republicans. They don't mean it, it's just a "Lucy holding the football" issue. (If they meant it, there wouldn't have been this latest attempt by Virginia. And for anyone who wishes to say - "but Texas first" - I agree, but some of you are the exact same people who think "Timmy did it, too" isn't a good argument when it's in reverse. Truly amazing how Whataboutism was a bad thing until it wasn't).

Let's go through a little (recent) history lesson.

From 1954 to 1994 - and for all but four years between 1930 and 1994 - the Democratic Party owned the House of Representatives. For those same 64 years - that's almost long enough to collect Social Security - they held the Senate all but ten years. And part of how they held onto the HOUSE (not the Senate which, despite the brain dead musing of Seth Moulton and other Democrats, is STATEWIDE and by definition cannot be "gerrymandered") was by gerrymandering after each census update in 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990. That's not to say they weren't the "majority party" in the US for almost that entire time, they were. But they held onto power IN PART by gerrymandering - and Republicans cried "foul" repeatedly. In fact, they used the exact same arguments I've heard the last 20 years on social media about how the Republicans practically invented gerrymandering and it's the only reason THEY held onto the House for 8 years and now the last four. (Which is funny since these same dolts told me abortion was the magic pill that was going to keep the GOP out of power forever, but whatever). To give one example, coming off the 1984 election - where Reagan clobbered Mondale - the GOP won 47 percent of the House vote but won only 42 percent of the seats and had a 72-seat margin to make up, fully half of which NONPARTISAN POLITICAL ANALYSTS noted was due to nothing more than gerrymandering. The Democrats of 1985 would still have had the House majority by by about 36 seats rather than 72 seats, which is a whole lot easier to catch up.



All I want you to note is this: the Republicans of 1984 make THE EXACT SAME ARGUMENT the Democrats now make. There's nothing new about it. They invent a nonexistent entity called "the national popular House/Senate vote", point to their higher numbers, and insist something unjust has occurred. (Note: Broder - a noted liberal - was writing before final votes were in that put the GOP below 50%, although they still did not have 47% of the seats, either).


The Republicans - dumb enough to listen to the carnival barker who cannot run a casino - pointed a gun at their own groin in Texas and pulled the trigger. And I don't blame Virginia one bit for retaliating, either.

But in all of the emotion of euphoria and victory, Democrats better think through the next step very carefully.

You already blew your fingers off with "we're gonna abolish the filibuster for judicial nominations" and wound up with a 6-3 conservative court. And no, don't give me any of that "we didn't do it for the SCOTUS, McConnell did" crying jag, you invited the opponent to go nuclear, and he did. And you would have done the same thing no matter how much "nuh-uh" I read on this site.

So........I think the Democrats were smart with what they did in Virginia.

But they'd better stop to think it through again.

You might not want to abolish that legislative filibuster or pack that Court like you think you should.
You might not want to assume you're gonna always win the popular vote and thus pass the compact.

You already lost big once trying that stuff - and the GOP has just learned that lesson, too.