Kirby Smart: SEC may secede from NCAA

[JDCrimson]

As one of my professors at Alabama said back in the 1990's, despite the fact that industries are moving into the south (Mercedes in Tuscaloosa in particular) the problem is that it's sort of a colonial economy in that they provide jobs that may allow workers a decent income, but the wealth of those manufacturers lies elsewhere, and in many cases outside the U.S.

And they choose to locate facilities in the south for the very reason that wages are depressed and they can pay lower wages. I don't think too many workers are getting rich at those plants, but hopefully they get good benefits and decent retirement, but that's even questionable in today's economy.

No but there are a lot of business HQs relocating to Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, etc from out West. The SEC should capitalize on this migration.

I would not want the Big 10 in mind backyard with GaTech or Miami or Virginia. Recruiting gets exponentially harder and more expensive if they merge into the South. The Big10 weakens the SEC brand in its home territory with its move into the South. A weakened brand translates to lower revenue by another method. You dont let some one else fish in your pond.

There is not really a team the SEC would want north of the Ohio River. However, there are several the Big10 would want south of the Ohio River.

If you agree with the above, then you have to think about other intangibles with expansion. Defense is much more important in the upcoming era in my opinion. The SEC should build a fortress around the South forecasting expansion much the way Alabama had to build a fence around Mobile in Recruiting. Kids now would not have to leave the state to play for a marquis conference. Not good.

You cant nibble at this next round of expansion, you have to the part of the board you want in 1 move. And in the law of governing dynamics, you avoid Notre Dame.

And I believe the Big10 is out for blood this go around. They see an opportunity with Sankey's incompetence to restore their relevancy at the championship level since 1992 when the SEC championship launched.

If Im Sankey, Im poaching schools now from the ACC fast as I can then the Big12. If enough them leave at one time their grant if media rights becomes increasingly unenforceable by the ACC. I would do this even if it cost me my job because they would thank me later.

You even have PR cover now for making such a move the feckless NCAA growing more impotent by the day.

 

[davefrat]

No but there are a lot of business HQs relocating to Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, etc from out West. The SEC should capitalize on this migration.

I would not want the Big 10 in mind backyard with GaTech or Miami or Virginia. Recruiting gets exponentially harder and more expensive if they merge into the South. The Big10 weakens the SEC brand in its home territory with its move into the South. A weakened brand translates to lower revenue by another method. You dont let some one else fish in your pond.

There is not really a team the SEC would want north of the Ohio River. However, there are several the Big10 would want south of the Ohio River.

If you agree with the above, then you have to think about other intangibles with expansion. Defense is much more important in the upcoming era in my opinion. The SEC should build a fortress around the South forecasting expansion much the way Alabama had to build a fence around Mobile in Recruiting. Kids now would not have to leave the state to play for a marquis conference. Not good.

You cant nibble at this next round of expansion, you have to the part of the board you want in 1 move. And in the law of governing dynamics, you avoid Notre Dame.

And I believe the Big10 is out for blood this go around. They see an opportunity with Sankey's incompetence to restore their relevancy at the championship level since 1992 when the SEC championship launched.

If Im Sankey, Im poaching schools now from the ACC fast as I can then the Big12. If enough them leave at one time their grant if media rights becomes increasingly unenforceable by the ACC. I would do this even if it cost me my job because they would thank me later.

You even have PR cover now for making such a move the feckless NCAA growing more impotent by the day.

I’m about to the point that I don’t even care anymore.

It’s all gotten stupid.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

I’m about to the point that I don’t even care anymore.

It’s all gotten stupid.

My excitement level for CFB is probably 1-5% of what it used to be.

I still watch all of our games and want us to always win but that’s about it.

I’m really grateful to have witnessed every second of the 2020 season though.

That was Peak Alabama Football and just complete domination on the Scoreboard pretty much every game and vs an All-SEC schedule.

No cupcakes and we just steamrolled everybody.

We’ll always have that High Note before everything changed for the worse.

 

[Windsortide]

I would love to see the Power 4 succeed and play it down for the National Championship. That would be the Big 12, Big 10, ACC, & SEC.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I’m about to the point that I don’t even care anymore.

It’s all gotten stupid.

Agreed. As Coach Saban said yesterday, this is a race to the bottom. The center cannot hold, and this will all implode at some point.

But JD is correct. The Big Ten is playing for blood.

 

[KrAzY3]

The main thing here is just that the SEC doesn't panic and do anything stupid.

I understand that the Texas and Oklahoma move was basically a proactive defensive move. You'll note that the SEC didn't get a lot richer, nor did they enjoy some massive boost in post season success or national credibility with the move. It just made the SEC more of a meat grinder, but it did keep them away from the Big 10.

With USC and Texas off the board, I only think 3 programs matter in terms of the battle for supremacy.

Notre Dame
North Carolina
Virginia

This isn't to say FSU and Miami are meaningless for instance, but the SEC already has a strong hold on the state, those two programs are not a direct threat to the SEC's popularity in the region. I think the battle is won or lost on the front lines.

Everything else is noise. If for instance you end up with a scenario where the SEC adds UNC and FSU, then Clemson, Virginia Tech, Pitt and NC State go to the Big 12, which then allows Notre Dame to follow as a partial member... it doesn't really matter what the Big 10 does next, they can add Miami and Virginia, the SEC is still holding their own.

The SEC has a demographic and ratings advantage, they just have to hold the line long enough for someone who knows what they are doing to take advantage of it. If they panic and make moves that hurt their value long term, this might never come to fruition. But as it is, they are dominating the ratings, they just need someone to actually extract the value. Once that happens, they can negotiate from a stronger position.

If the SEC panics, and for instance adds Clemson, Virginia Tech, and NC State themselves, what they might actually do is just force Notre Dame into the Big 10's arms. There's no benefit here to being in a hurry to add programs the Big 10 doesn't want anyway, I see no upside unless it facilities a bigger prize (Virginia, UNC or Notre Dame).

 

[JDCrimson]

If every major city from Texas to DC is a SEC city that is the winning position. Even if Notre Dame is available for the Big10 im not sure they would even join. That's how elitist they are. Then Big10 has to massively overpay to merge them. Notre Dame is fools gold in this era.

When a sovereign, the NCAA, is collapsing you move to control territory in the vacuum.

 

[KrAzY3]

Even if Notre Dame is available for the Big10 im sure they would even join. That's how elitist they are. Then Big10 has to massively overpay to merge them. Notre Dame is fools gold in this era.

Notre Dame has a unique regional footprint that makes them more valuable than most other alleged football powers. For instance, they are the second most popular program in New Jersey. So, adding them makes you relevant in far more territory than just about any other addition.

Furthermore, the new reporting requirements for college athletics finally give us a peak into private athletic departments. Notre Dame ranks #3, behind Texas and Ohio State. Alabama for the record is #6.

Interestingly enough, the top 7 are evenly split with 3 SEC and 3 Big 10 teams. This means Notre Dame is the tie breaker when it comes to the power at the top. Despite their intransigence, it doesn't change their importance. It does however mean this can be used to the SEC's advantage.

All the SEC has to do is keep them out of the Big 10 and that's a win by making sure the balance of power doesn't shift massively towards the Big 10. Doubling down in SEC territory to create redundancies does nothing to the Big 10 really. All that does is destroy Notre Dame's home, and then salts the earth so the Big 12 can't move in either.

There's no benefit to that because the Big 12 and ACC are not a threat to the SEC. The SEC already makes double what the ACC and Big 12 make (another reason not to take too many of these teams), This is about which conference grows and you can't grow without expansion into new territory.

To appreciate how the Big 10 got to where they are now, look at the addition of Rutgers and Maryland. They understood the basic premise, you add territory (Notre Dame does that interestingly enough with a footprint that defies state lines). If you stack too many football powers or within the same regional footprint, you create diminishing returns that ultimately hurt your bottom line, and consequently your power.

 

[JDCrimson]

There's no benefit to that because the Big 12 and ACC are not a threat to the SEC. The SEC already makes double what the ACC and Big 12 make (another reason not to take too many of these teams), This is about which conference grows and you can't grow without expansion into new territory.

If you merge the right schools, you get 90% of the B12 and ACC TV revenue without having to merge all the teams that has the benefit of balancing revenue per school.

I would gamble on Notre Dame staying independent. I just dont think they will join the Big10. In fact, I think they would try to play opponents within the Big10 and new SEC as they have with the ACC. And I would be okay with that.

 

[TideEngineer08]

This is why I've long preferred Notre Dame join the ACC as a full member. It strengthens the ACC and reduces the possibility of its implosion, and it keeps them out of the Big Ten.

But I tend to agree they will remain quasi-Independent as long as they are able to. I think the only thing that would force their hand is a scheduling ban from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC against them. And that is simply not going to happen.

And I'll say this as well: as down as I am on the SEC and Sankey, I do still wonder if the western additions to the Big Ten will work in the long run. For football and even men's basketball, I'm sure it will not cease to generate millions. It's the rest of the sports I still wonder about. The travel costs alone have to be killing women's volleyball, for instance.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

And I'll say this as well: as down as I am on the SEC and Sankey, I do still wonder if the western additions to the Big Ten will work in the long run. For football and even men's basketball, I'm sure it will not cease to generate millions. It's the rest of the sports I still wonder about. The travel costs alone have to be killing women's volleyball, for instance.

The ACC has a huge problem with their west coast teams as well (also SMU). They cannot sustain this.

 

[TideEngineer08]

The ACC has a huge problem with their west coast teams as well (also SMU). They cannot sustain this.

Cal and Stanford were borderline solvent on their own prior to the Pac 12 being broken up. They have been horribly mismanaged as collegiate athletic departments. So there is no way they have brought any positive revenue to the ACC.

 

[Crimson1967]

No way could the SEC survive on its own. Leave completely? So no March Madness money. No College World Series. No WCWS. The NCAA could pass a rule banning games against non-members and now we can’t play anyone but ourselves.