ATLANTA BRAVES VS ST LOUIS CARDINALS NLCS PREVIEW
And so we arrive at the postseason, welcoming one team that hasn't been there since 1969 (Atlanta) and another who's last appearance was so long ago (1968) that they've never appeared in the NLCS. Imagine that: the most successful NL team of all-time has never appeared in the NLCS. Granted, they should have played Cincinnati last year had baseball not imposed a ridiculous split season concept on everyone, but they're back with a vengeance this year and more talent as well.
The Atlanta Braves captured everyone's attention for most of the baseball season, tearing out of the gate with a 13-0 record-setting start, blowing all of a 10.5 game lead in the standings thanks to a 2-19 August swoon only to climb off the deck in the final ten games and beat the defending world champion Dodgers at the wire. With most of their games telecast nationally on WTBS, they've developed a following not coincidentally at the same time their team has gotten very good. The Cardinals, by contrast, have stayed below the national radar most of the season. The Cardinals compiled a 12-game winnings streak during and after Atlanta's 13-game streak, but they got no attention for it. On the morning of April 25, the Cardinals and Braves both awakened to 13-3 overall records, but the whole country was talking about the Braves while the Cards weren't even in the news cycle outside of the Midwest. Methodically and consistently, the Cardinals hung pretty close to first place all year long, never having a huge lead until the final two weeks when they sealed the division title and never falling more than three games behind. They are consistent, programmed, designed for their park, and generally boring. But they're also a good team. Atlanta is a good team, too, but the Braves will have to catch fire again at the right time in order to win the series, too.
Overview:
The Braves win games by manufacturing runs with a low batting average and socking big-run homers. The Braves scored more runs and smashed more home runs than any team in the NL, but the homer total is imbalanced and clearly the result of the home games they play in Fulton County Stadium, also known as the Launching Pad. But the homer differential (95 vs 51) doesn't explain the fact Atlanta's run totals average 4.97 at home and 4.33 on the road, a reasonable difference - and then remember that the Braves are actually five games BETTER on the road than they are at home. But the Braves don't get nearly as many HITS as most teams, their .256 batting average easily the worst among the four playoff teams. In some ways, the Braves' offense is similar to the Cardinals' in that they draw a lot of walks, play aggressively by stealing a lot of bases, use sacrifice bunts to move runners ahead, and then rip the long ball. And score runs they must because Atlanta's pitching staff consists of a possible future Hall of Famer, a decent reliever who goes through hot and cold spells, and a bunch of guys who are above average on a good day and pretty mediocre on bad ones. Atlanta's pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA, tenth in the 12-team National League. Some of this, of course, can be chalked up to the home ballpark, and the Braves only had 15 complete games this year. But despite some shakiness, the Braves' bullpen has more saves than any other team in baseball (51). And while Gene Garber, as noted, can be hot or cold, he saved 30 out of 38 chances, and the Braves would not be here without him. The Braves average 4.56 runs per game, but their pitching staff surrenders 4.33, a gap that doesn't lend itself to a lot of confidence. Amazingly, Atlanta's pitchers have struck out 205 more batters than the Cardinals' starting staff. But the high runs allowed total is because the Braves' fielding is nothing to write home about, either. They're not horrid, but they're also not in the same solar system as the Cardinals. Basically, as noted at the start of the year, the Braves win games by taking big leads, getting their starter to give them 7 innings, and hoping Garber has a big enough lead he won't blow it when it matters.
The Cardinals win games pretty much the same as the Braves but without the luxury of the home run. The Cardinals once again hit the fewest bombs in the majors this year (67), but they manufactured runs with speed, aggressive base running and smart hitting, often using Baltimore chops off the turf to score with speedsters on third base. The Cards led the NL in thefts (200), and they were also caught the most (91). But what separates the Cardinal offense from the Atlanta batters is that the Cardinals don't strike out nearly as much, and although they've grounded into a few more double plays (110 vs 102), that is entirely based on the artificial turf that gives the fielders a true bounce. The offenses are a slight edge to St Louis, but they really get the best of Atlanta when you compare their pitching staffs and defense. The Cardinals don't have an ace in the classic sense. Well, one might consider Joaquin Andujar to be the ace (15-10, 2.47). If he'd gotten the run support Steve Mura (12-11, 4.05) got, he'd have gone about 21-5 and might well beat out Steve Carlton for this year's Cy Young. The Cardinals basically consist of three double-digit winners (Andujar, Mura, and Bob Forsch), a bunch of middle relievers who won between 5 and 9 games, and a lights out closer, Bruce Sutter, who converted 36 of 39 save opportunities. Both teams might well be playing seven-inning contests in the hope to stay ahead. And then there's the fielding, where the Cardinals are, without question, the best defensive team in the NL. And while much of this credit goes to the flamboyant and talented shortstop Ozzie Smith, their solid first baseman (Keith Hernandez) and other two infielders (Tom Herr at second, Ken Oberkfell at third) round out the most talented defensive infield in the league.
The Braves took the season series from the Cardinals, 7-5, but the matchup was dead even. The two teams each scored 27 runs in the Atlanta game and the Braves enjoyed a slight edge (28-26) in the St Louis contests. But six of those contests were in April and May, when they Braves were the game's hottest team. St Louis offset that advantage in July. And the two teams haven't played since the Cardinals seized momentum and the Braves began staggering to a 28-36 mark over the final two months.
Position by Position Analysis (Braves Players Listed First)
Catcher - Bruce Benedict vs Darrell Porter
If you ask Whitey Herzog the key to the Cardinal success, he gives much of the credit to the former KC Royal and reformed alcoholic. He's not spectacular with the bat, but he does enough handling the pitching staff and coming up big enough when it matters to be a key cog in their division title. Benedict has had his job, lost it due to injury and performance, and he doesn't compare at all. Think of it like this: Benedict drilled three home runs in the easiest park in the majors. Porter hit four times that many (12) in 13 fewer at bats and in the most difficult home run park in the NL. This one is a mismatch.
Edge: Cardinals
First Base - Chris Chambliss vs Keith Hernandez
Chambliss delivered probably the most scintillating moment in the history of the LCS when he won the 1976 pennant for the Yankees with a solo shot off Mark Littell that saw the crowd roar onto the Yankee Stadium field and inflict about $100K worth of damage. Chambliss is a solid contributor, not spectacular, but a good ballplayer who won the AL Gold Glove in 1978. That same year, Hernandez won the first of his four straight Gold Gloves that is likely to be five this off-season. Hernandez is a solid bat in the lineup and perhaps the best defensive first baseman in the game. Chambliss is a good player, Hernandez a great one.
Edge: Cardinals
Second Base - Glenn Hubbard vs Tom Herr
Both of these guys are among the best fielders in the NL, Herr a bit better, although - grab your socks - Hubbard actually led the league in double plays turned, a phenomenal accomplishment when you remember who the shortstop is in St Louis. Herr is better with the bat and better than even in the field, so though closer than the previous matchups, this one also favors St Louis.
Edge: Cardinals
Shortstop - Ozzie Smith vs Rafael Ramirez
Rafael Ramirez leads Ozzie Smith in almost every batting stat in 1982. Sure, he played 17 more games, and he hits nearly 30 points higher, has more hits, scored more runs, socked five times as many home runs (10 vs 2), and the steals were about even. But Ramirez also had 17 more strikeouts and only about half as many walks, which is why Smith has a substantially better OBP (.339 vs .319). And then you consider that Smith is the best shortstop in baseball defensively (only 13 errors) while Ramirez led the league with 38 fluffs, and this one isn't close, either.
Edge: Cardinals
Third Base - Bob Horner vs Ken Oberkfell
If you could combine the best qualities of both of these players, you would have one of the 20 greatest third basemen of all-time. Horner is a swing from the heels slugger, and Oberkfell's offensive contributions don't even begin to compare. Horner leads the homer battle (32 vs 2), although Oberkfell does enough other things solidly enough that their OBP is only five points in Horner's favor. Defensively, it's not close either, Oberkfell one of the best game's best fielders (10 errors) and Horner one of the worst (.949 fielding average, 24 errors). But how often does the defense of the third baseman become a huge issue? Oberkfell isn't Brooks Robinson or Graig Nettles, either.
Edge: Braves on offense, Cardinals on defense
Right Field - Claudell Washington vs George Hendrick
Washington has been something of a spark this year for the Braves, hitting early in the batting order, getting on base, stealing or running the bases aggressively, and hitting the occasional long ball. Hendrick was the Cardinals' top RBI man (104) and led the league in sacrifice flies. He's also a better hitter in pressure situations (.318 with RISP and two outs) and he has more home runs despite playing in a difficult power park compared to Claudell. Defensively, Hendrick is vastly superior to Washington, with twice as many assists and far fewer errors (3 vs 10).
Edge: Cardinals
Center Field - Dale Murphy vs Willie McGee
Willie McGee had a stellar Rookie year in 1982, and he will likely finish among the top three as Rookie of the Year, which is expected to go to Steve Sax. In 123 big league games, the speedster hit .296 and stole 24 bases to set up a bright future. His fielding left a lot to be desired as he committed a league high 11 errors but that will improve with time. Murphy, meanwhile, put together a season that may net him the MVP, with 36 home runs and a league-leading 109 RBIs. He also had just one fewer steal than McGee, though it should be noted he also played in 40 additional games. Murphy also shone in the field and may win his first Gold Glove. Come back in five years and this one may be even but Murphy is substantially better at this point.
Edge: Braves
Left Field - Jerry Royster vs Lonnie Smith
Jerry Royster is a tolerable, solid player with good defense, one of the best utility men in baseball and a player who can be used to plug in for a game or two almost anywhere on the diamond. But he is also proof of how a jack of all trades is a master of none. Lonnie Smith, meanwhile, is a legitimate MVP candidate, leading the league in runs scored (120) and stealing 68 bases quietly because he's not Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines. He hit a rock solid .307 this year mostly hitting leadoff, and he sets the table. His defense isn't the best, but it's better than Royster, who is playing way out of position in left field. Lonnie's one flaw is he's occasionally a disaster on the basepaths, earning the nickname "Skates."
Edge: Cardinals
Starting Staff
The Cardinals have an indisputable edge in starting pitching. How much of an edge or how much that really matters may be open for debate. Teams in the past have shown that if you just have two good starters and a solid bullpen, you can win the World Series. Atlanta may - MAY - have the best starting pitcher on the mound with 43-year-old Phil Niekro. But even that's open for debate because Niekro's run support was nearly 1.5 runs higher than that of St Louis ace Joaquin Andujar, and Andujar's ERA was a full run per game lower. But that may come back to the park effects. Niekro was an incredible 14-1 with a 2.70 ERA ON THE ROAD this year, but he was only 3-3 with a 5.04 ERA at home. Andujar's numbers are more consistent and nearly the same both at Busch Stadium or on the road. Andujar went 0-1 with a no decision in Atlanta while Niekro went 1-0 with a no decision at Busch. But it's behind the aces where St Louis has a huge advantage. In essence, to win the series it is probable the Braves will require a 4- or 5-game series where Niekro can either win two or at least keep the games close enough for a late rally to win. And the Braves will have to steal another one. The St Louis staff matched up pitcher by pitcher is superior in every way to the Braves except where Niekro is concerned.
Edge: Cardinals
Relief Staff
Despite being dismissed all year long as having a pedestrian bullpen, the gap between the two clubs is not nearly as large as it may look statistically. Yes, Bruce Sutter has 36 saves and led the NL for the fourth straight year. But how many saves would Sutter have if he had to pitch in Fulton County stadium as his home base? Sutter has 18 saves both home and away, but he has been clobbered by Atlanta's bats this year. In four appearances against the Braves this year, yes, Sutter got two wins and a save. But he blew the save on May 7, blew the lead but got the win the next day, got a save on May 13 despite pitching poorly because he only gave up 2 runs of a 3-run lead, and pitched poorly but got another win again when the Braves' bullpen collapsed worse than he did. In four games against the Braves, Sutter has faced 35 batters and given up three homers while allowing 7 runs to score and been blasted to the tune of an ERA of 7.88. In short, Sutter has some decent final stat numbers in the decision category, but he has not pitched well against the Braves. That may hold the key to the outcome of the series. Garber, meanwhile, has not exactly been lights out against the Cardinals but again, his ERA is substantially better in a tougher ballpark than Sutter, he has only one less appearance, and like Sutter, he gave up 7 runs in relief but faced 51 batters and only allowed one bomb. And believe it or not, he even struck out more batters than the former Cy Young winner did. But even if we consider the closers to be a wash, the Cardinals have far better and more reliable relievers in Jim Kaat and Doug Bair than the Braves have in the eccentric performances of Steve Bedrosian, who one day looks like the next great reliever and the next looks like he should be back in the minors. Donnie Moore is a solid presence in the Atlanta bullpen as well.
Edge: Cardinals
Bench
With Brett Butler not playing, St Louis owns this category.
Edge: Cardinals
Manager: Joe Torre vs Whitey Herzog
Joe Torre has had a successful rookie campaign in Atlanta after flaming out with the Mets - and we'll be charitable and blame the organization for that outcome. But the fact remains that he is not Whitey Herzog, who has now finished in what would be first place in his division for the 5th time in 7 years. Only the technicality of the split season prevented the Cardinals from making a run in 1981. Torre appears to be a manager of bright promise. Herzog is the solid player's manager who is missing just that one important accomplishment of a World Series ring.
Edge: Cardinals
SUMMARY
On paper this series is a colossal mismatch. Atlanta has two players who might - MIGHT - play in place of their counterparts on the Cardinals and even Horner is sketchy if you make him play defense on turf so in all honesty, it's only Murphy. The Cardinals have the better overall team, the better pitching, the more productive offense, and they're playing a team that while aggressive tends to rely on the three-run home run to flip games. Given the first two games will be in St Louis, how in the world can the Braves overcome the deep fences and low altitude down by the river? The Braves will have to be aggressive, which will require getting on base. In essence, they will have to beat the Cardinals at their own game with lots of slap hitting, double steals, and they'll have to field on turf better than they've shown they can on grass. It's a tall order. Still, the Braves are here and after having been written off after the August agony and September swoon, you cannot just dismiss them as not having any chance at all.
For the Braves, the success is sudden. For the Cardinals, they've been moving towards this ever since they hired Herzog. Through masterful trades and building his team specifically for his own ballpark, Herzog has the Cards on the precipice. Odds are they will pass through to the next round.
Prediction: Cardinals in 4.