June 17, 1993
Travel Day
37-30
2nd place
6.5 games behind
WHAT'S WRONG WTH THE BRAVES?
You hear that question a lot right now. What is wrong with the Atlanta Braves, who were crowned World Series champions by nearly everyone back on December 10 when Greg Maddux signed a five-year deal with the team? And the answer MAY depend on how much credit you give for what particular aspect of the game. Sixty-seven games into the season, the Braves are 37-30, a pace that will win them 89 games this year, which is (usually) not enough to win a pennant. So there do appear to be some problems on the Braves, but what exactly they are - in most cases - defies explanation. But there's one that assuredly does not.
1) Atlanta's offense - for a pennant contender - is absolutely horrendous.
The Braves closed April with a team batting average of .229. They picked it up in May to .264, but they have regressed this month to about halfway in between. But it should also be noted that the .264 in May was inflated by their four-game trip to Colorado, where the Braves scored 46 runs and hit .327. Further proof that the series inflates Atlanta's overall numbers if the fact their opponents scored 22 runs (5.2 per game), May was by far the pitching staff's highest ERA, and the Braves only had one starter, John Smoltz, get a decision. And the Braves have a low OBP and are not getting runners on base by other means, either.
2) The Bullpen
The Braves have lost 8 games in the opposing team's final at-bat and have been "walked off" seven times. They are 3-4 in extra innings, which isn't so bad, but in those seven extra inning games, the Braves have blown leads of three runs in the 8th, four runs in the 9th, 3 runs in the 7th, and a one-run lead in the 9th. Only twice have the Braves been down late to force extra innings, so it's still (usually) the bullpen that is extending games in a bad way.
3) Folks aren't exactly giving the Giants enough credit.
The Braves DO have issues, but there's another issue that has nothing at all to do with how the Braves are playing: the San Francisco Giants are setting a blistering pace, a clip that if they can sustain it (which is highly unlikely) will give them 104 wins before the season ends. The Giants have played more extra inning games than the Braves, but San Fran is 6-3 in those games. And while the Giants' starting staff is average to above average at best, the Giants have what the Braves do not, a lights out closer in Rod Beck, who is on a pace for 50 saves this year. And the brutal truth is that the Giants beat the Braves 5 out of 7 times thus far, and they've not just beaten the bullpen, they've saddled Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz with losses.
The Giants, of course, went 72-90 last year and were rumored to be on their way to St. Petersburg, Florida until bailed out at the last minute. And the reality is that the Giants didn't really add anyone except Barry Bonds. Every other starting position player is the same, and their mound staff in the key components of starting and relieving is the same. The only other addition the Giants made was giving Dusty Baker his first managerial job in the majors. It remains to be seen how Baker will manage in the heat of a pennant race. After all, Bobby Cox has finished first his last three seasons as a full-time manager, and he's far more familiar with Atlanta's talent than Baker is with San Francisco's.
But the big lead now might be enough later. Because of the addition of two expansion teams, the NL West teams that have spent the last 25 years playing 18 games against each other will play only 12. And if the Giants can still have a big lead when they play the Braves head-to-head, the circumstances may be so unfavorable that not even Atlanta's talented pitching sweeping them will be enough to make it a race.
Look for the Braves to attempt to add a bat before the deadline, and look for the Giants to add another solid starting pitcher. The Braves head East for six straight games against the top of the NL East, Montreal and Philadelphia. This may give them a better idea of how close they are. Or are not.
