A Report from Europe

[Tidewater]

I am back in Belgium (for work) and talking with Europeans daily. Here is what my European colleagues are saying:
1. They are scared that the US is abandoning Europe.
2. They all realize that they are going to have to spend more on defense (which is what I believe Trump was after all along).

3. For the longest time, the EU required member states to not spend above 1.2% of GDP, and that meant tough choices: either keep spending on social safety net stuff or defense and for decades the Europeans have spent less on defense because the Americans would always be there to pick up the slack on defense. Now that assumption appears no longer true, so van der Leyen has removed the 1.2% limit and is planning on spending €800B on defense.
4. Europe has extreme demographic problems (almost as bad a Russia) so finding young people to serve in larger European armies will be tough. (Hungary is one of the few doing okay in that regard). And immigrants won't fill that gap. They will not serve in European armies, at least not in large enough numbers to fix the problem.
5. Europeans, especially Danes, are really ticked off at Americans for J D Vance's "free speech" talk in Munich, Trump's loose talk about annexing Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state, and wildly swinging tariff policies in the US. In Denmark, there is an app telling you which products are made in the US so buyers can avoid American-made brands.
6. The coverage by news media in Europe in regards to Trump is even less balanced and honest than American news media. Think MSNBC and then dial it up to "11."

 

[JDCrimson]

Im not sure how you responded to your friends, but here are my responses...

I am back in Belgium (for work) and talking with Europeans daily. Here is what my European colleagues are saying:
1. They are scared that the US is abandoning Europe. They should be scared because Trump will follow the money wherever it comes from. Right now it appears the money train is running out of Russia.
2. They all realize that they are going to have to spend more on defense (which is what I believe Trump was after all along). They should and quickly.

3. For the longest time, the EU required member states to not spend above 1.2% of GDP, and that meant tough choices: either keep spending on social safety net stuff or defense and for decades the Europeans have spent less on defense because the Americans would always be there to pick up the slack on defense. Now that assumption appears no longer true, so van der Leyen has removed the 1.2% limit and is planning on spending €800B on defense. They overspent on socialized medicine to the detriment of their military complex as well undermining their own sense of patriotism. They have 2 generations of people who see no need in participating in the military.
4. Europe has extreme demographic problems (almost as bad a Russia) so finding young people to serve in larger European armies will be tough. (Hungary is one of the few doing okay in that regard). And immigrants won't fill that gap. They will not serve in European armies, at leats not in large enough numbers to fix the problem. Maybe you can fix the problem by making service in the military lucrative enough to help people start families and receive higher quality Healthcare. The GI Bill gave our veterans a tremendous head start on civilian life. If you want student debt forgiveness enroll in the military for some years of service.
5. Europeans, especially Danes, are really ticked off at Americans for J D Vance's "free speech" talk in Munich, Trump's loose talk about annexing Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state, and wildly swinging tariff policies in the US. In Denmark, there is an app telling you which products are made in the US so buyers can avoid American-made brands. Hit back and make it hurt.
6. The coverage by news media in Europe in regards to Trump is even less balanced and honest than American news media. Think MSNBC and then dial it up to "11." How else do you cover a boorish moron who is more interested settling childish playground stuff? Until Trump actually does something that makes sense then rock on.

 

[Tidewater]

I try to be diplomatic since I am not a government spokesman. But Europe is acting a little like the welfare queen who gets told the checks are about to stop:
"What am I supposed to do now?"
"Well, I guess you are going to have to get a job."

As for media coverage, I think a lot of media (in Europe and in the US) focus on what Trump says (and he says some wild stuff) when it is more illustrative to watch what he does.
A couple of examples. "Zelensky is a dictator who refuses to hold elections." If Trump actually felt this, he would cut off all aid and have nothing to do with Ukraine. Instead, enters into negotiations to broker a ceasefire. The "dictator" comment was a pressure tactic to get Zelensky to come to the table (by implying cutting off aid was a real possibility).
"Trump is a Russian puppet," but in 2014 Obama sent only nonlethal aid (medical supplies and commo gear) whereas the Trump Administration sent Javelins, the antitank missile which battered Russia's tank columns. And Joe Biden implied a "minor Russian incursion" into Ukraine would not be a big deal. I would imagine what Zelensky said behind closed doors when he heard Biden's off the cuff comment was not safe for Tidefans.

 

[dtgreg]

The problem with arming individual European countries is that they are insane. They have always and will always fight among themselves. They have old grievances that some still want to settle and they harbor major jealousies. Until they have enough time as a Union and can trust each other (and I don't think 80 years is enough) they will forever be in danger of what happened to Yugoslavia after Tito. There is a reason WW2 happened and why we had to become Rome and why they were glad to have us.

 

[Tidewater]

The problem with arming individual European countries is that they are insane. They have always and will always fight among themselves. They have old grievances that some still want to settle and they harbor major jealousies. Until they have enough time as a Union and can trust each other (and I don't think 80 years is enough) they will forever be in danger of what happened to Yugoslavia after Tito. There is a reason WW2 happened and why we had to become Rome and why they were glad to have us.

I am not so sure Europeans want to settle old scores, at least not in significant numbers. (For example, I doubt many Germans want Alsace and Lorraine or Silesia and Pomerania back strongly enough to destroy the EU and NATO to make that happen.
Most Europeans realize they have a pretty good deal and want to keep it that way.
I think, truth be told, they have been happy the US have been available to defend them, but as a result have generally become flabby and self-indulgent as societies.*

Plus, as is par for the course, as soon as van der Leyen proposes the €800B, the majority of the parties in the majority coalition in the Netherlands, said, "no."
If you ask five Europeans where the group would like to go out to eat, you'll get six different opinions.


* At the individual level, I have met some tough Europeans, but at the level of society at large, Europeans, who went through the Great War, the Depression, and the Blitz and Nazi occupation, now need trigger warnings when something unpleasant is about to appear on a screen.

 

[Tidewater]

Well, the Bundestag has passed a ":fiscal bazooka" to increase defense spending.
I suspect a lot of NATO countries will follow suit.

 

[arthurdawg]

Well, the Bundestag has passed a ":fiscal bazooka" to increase defense spending.
I suspect a lot of NATO countries will follow suit.

The fiscal bazooka... that is one I must add to my lexicon!

 

[arthurdawg]

I try to be diplomatic since I am not a government spokesman. But Europe is acting a little like the welfare queen who gets told the checks are about to stop:
"What am I supposed to do now?"
"Well, I guess you are going to have to get a job."

As for media coverage, I think a lot of media (in Europe and in the US) focus on what Trump says (and he says some wild stuff) when it is more illustrative to watch what he does.
A couple of examples. "Zelensky is a dictator who refuses to hold elections." If Trump actually felt this, he would cut off all aid and have nothing to do with Ukraine. Instead, enters into negotiations to broker a ceasefire. The "dictator" comment was a pressure tactic to get Zelensky to come to the table (by implying cutting off aid was a real possibility).
"Trump is a Russian puppet," but in 2014 Obama sent only nonlethal aid (medical supplies and commo gear) whereas the Trump Administration sent Javelins, the antitank missile which battered Russia's tank columns. And Joe Biden implied a "minor Russian incursion" into Ukraine would not be a big deal. I would imagine what Zelensky said behind closed doors when he heard Biden's off the cuff comment was not safe for Tidefans.

Threadjacking a bit (lots)... but you seem to have the pulse of Europe well beyond what us provincial country bumpkins know. What do you think is the answer for Ukraine that might have a chance of keeping the peace?

 

[Tidewater]

Not sure. The Administration seems to be working toward the plan put forward by Brian Kellogg (Lieutenant General, US Army, retired).

The Kellogg plan (here) calls for (page 16):

• the fighting to stop, freezing the conflict at the current confrontation line,
• Ukraine does not cede occupied territories, but merely acknowledges that they are currently occupied,
• Some limited sanctions relief for Russia.
• European powers deploy a peace enforcement force on the ground with NATO air to back them up, and a mandate to crush ceasefire violations from either side,
• the US (and Europeans) continue to build up Ukraine's armed forces through a train and equip program,
• No NATO membership for Ukraine (for now) and
• the US and Europeans guarantee that if Russia attacks Ukraine again we will employ some kind of force on the side of the Ukrainians to defeat Russian aggression.

Both Macron and Starmer appear to have committed to deploying troops to Ukraine (this is important because, no offence to Bolivia and Nigeria, their troops aren't going to cut it) but Macron asked about an American "backstop." I'm not sure what that means, but the Kellogg plan does not call for US troops on the ground (American troops would be inflammatory to Russia anyway).

 

[crimsonaudio]

Not sure. The Administration seems to be working toward the plan put forward by Brian Kellogg (Lieutenant General, US Army, retired).

The Kellogg plan (here) calls for (page 16):

• the fighting to stop, freezing the conflict at the current confrontation line,
• Ukraine does not cede occupied territories, but merely acknowledges that they are currently occupied,
• Some limited sanctions relief for Russia.
• European powers deploy a peace enforcement force on the ground with NATO air to back them up, and a mandate to crush ceasefire violations from either side,
• the US (and Europeans) continue to build up Ukraine's armed forces through a train and equip program,
• No NATO membership for Ukraine (for now) and
• the US and Europeans guarantee that if Russia attacks Ukraine again we will employ some kind of force on the side of the Ukrainians to defeat Russian aggression.

Both Macron and Starmer appear to have committed to deploying troops to Ukraine (this is important because, no offence to Bolivia and Nigeria, their troops aren't going to cut it) but Macron asked about an American "backstop." I'm not sure what that means, but the Kellogg plan does not call for US troops on the ground (American troops would be inflammatory to Russia anyway).

GOOD! I hope it works, but I'm 100% against any plan that puts US troops on the ground.

 

[Tidewater]

GOOD! I hope it works, but I'm 100% against any plan that puts US troops on the ground.

I believe Kellogg's plan is the US "going in" position to start the negotiations.
The Russians and Ukrainians (and Europeans) have their own "going-in" positions.
What comes out of this may bare little resemblance to any of these "going-in" positions.

 

[mdb-tpet]

Why don't we just return all of the nuclear armaments to Ukraine that they gave up for protection and let the chips fall as they may?

 

[Tidewater]

Why don't we just return all of the nuclear armaments to Ukraine that they gave up for protection and let the chips fall as they may?

If you had a time machine, that would be an excellent idea.
The Ukrainians (at the behest of the United States and others), gave their nukes up to Russia.
If I had a time machine, I would go back and tell them not to give them up. Russia would never have invaded a nuclear capable Ukraine.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Why don't we just return all of the nuclear armaments to Ukraine that they gave up for protection and let the chips fall as they may?

My understanding is that while Ukraine possessed the third largest arsenal in the world after the dissolution of the USSR, they never had independent control over the weapons (meaning they couldn't actually use them as a deterrent).

I could be wrong, but I believe I recall reading this several times a decade or so ago.

 

[Tidewater]

My understanding is that while Ukraine possessed the third largest arsenal in the world after the dissolution of the USSR, they never had independent control over the weapons (meaning they couldn't actually use them as a deterrent).

I could be wrong, but I believe I recall reading this several times a decade or so ago.

I think in thirty years they might have figured it out. They had the fissile material, the rockets (with fire control mechanisms).
The fear at the time (because Russia and Ukraine were so screwed up and shot through with corruption) was losing control of one or more of the bombs and some enterprising terrorist loading it into a crate marked "Farm Machinery" and shipping it to Baltimore or New York in the hold of a ship and, while waiting to clear customs, boom.
The fewer countries had nukes, the fewer potential leakage points for a bomb to end up in nefarious hands.

 

[Tidewater]

Dutch parliament still quite squeamish about the EU defense plan (initially the Dutch had said, no, twice).
Dutch PM agrees to EU rearmament plan, but again stressed objection to joint loans
The Dutch tend to be quite tightfisted,. They do not like their government spending money. There is a joke in European circles that copper wire was invented by two Dutchmen fighting over a penny.

The EU is strong when it comes to taxing peoples' money and then offering to give it back if the recipient complies with certain conditions. It is less effective when authorizing states to deficit spend.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

@Tidewater what are your thoughts on Conor McGregor running for the Irish presidency? Even if he won it, doesn't all the power reside with the PM?

 

[CrimsonJazz]

WOW! Thousands of Catholics and Protestants in Belfast, Northern Ireland are currently marching TOGETHER against Mass Immigration.

When these two communities are putting their differences aside and coming together, you know you’ve messed up.

This is incredible!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903892181825597644

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

WOW! Thousands of Catholics and Protestants in Belfast, Northern Ireland are currently marching TOGETHER against Mass Immigration.

When these two communities are putting their differences aside and coming together, you know you’ve messed up.

This is incredible!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1903892181825597644

Anti-immigration protest and counter rally gather at city hall

Protests involving hundreds of people have taken place at Belfast City Hall.

On Sunday afternoon two protests took place - one an anti-immigration protest and the other, a counter protest against racism.

The smaller group were those protesting what they called "mass migration".

The larger group consisted of trade unions, Amnesty International and local political and community groups. They told the crowd that 112 groups were taking part in their demonstrations. They had flags saying "refugees welcome".

 

[Tidewater]

I am not very familiar with the Irish political system, so my opinion is not worth much.
I would say that, in general, the skill set match for an MMA fighter and a head of state is not great.
If the imcumbent and McGregor exchanged places, I do not think that either UFC or Irish politics would be improved.