News Article: Arkansas preview: Hogs' offense can match Tide blow for blow

[JessN]

Arkansas preview: Hogs’ offense can match Tide blow for blow
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 23, 2009

For three weeks, Alabama has been preparing for either dynamic quarterbacks, high-powered offensive systems or improving programs trying to assert themselves on the college football landscape. On Saturday, Alabama will get a three-for-one deal.

For the full story, click herehttp://www.tidefans.com/forums/tide...ew-hogs-offense-can-match-tide-blow-blow.html

 

[jps1983]

good read. I'm not surprised their LB wasn't suspended. With that said, it's tough to see our O not scoring every time we get the ball. 38 points seems kind of low considering how UGA did on the road against Ark. Is it that low b/c we are going to be more ball-control than quick scoring to keep their O off the field?

 

[NYBamaFan]

It was a good read, but I disagree with you in a few areas. You give their offensive players too much credit. They have played against air this year.

In the end, you have to ask yourself whether or not you would take any of their players over one of ours as individuals. I would not - not a single player. IMO, we win every category, and the only one that is close is QB. But you are entitled to your opinion...

Roll Tide!!!

 

[Alanbama27]

In this particular game there is no question that Arkansas will be able to throw the ball around unless the weather turns really bad (see below). The question then becomes ball control and Bama has shown a great ability to play keep away from teams who can score quickly! Bama will kill the clock in this game and frustrate Mallett and Pretrino because they'll believe they have to score every time they touch the ball since they won't be touching it too much. Therefore it is my opinion that Bama could pick Mallett a few times in this game because he'll be forcing throws...which he hasn't done much of in Arkansas' two games.

I also believe that Mallett will be running for his life much moreso than was the case against Georgia last week! It wasn't until late in the game that Georgia was able to put real pressure on Mallett and when they did, it was three and out for the Razorbacks! Bama has a MUCH better defense and pass rush than Georgia and we'll have to see how Mallett does when throwing with Mount Cody and company in his face! Also, if they keep 6 or 7 in to block (which I think they will) Bama will have the ability to rush 4 and drop 7 giving Bama the edge there too!

Conversley Arkansas hasn't show the ability to stop anything and Bama should be able to control the clock at will and slowly and methodically move down the field! Jess is absolutely correct in that we need to score TD's and NOT field goals and if this game comes down to an extra point or field goal my confidence in Leigh Tiffin is not what it once was!

Also, given the most recent weather predictions (80%) chance of rain (even though the weather forcasters have been DEAD WRONG two weeks running) that bodes much better for a running team than a passing team...especially given the velocity at which Mallett has been known the throw the ball.

All in all I think Bama wins this game 28-14 and Mallett's total yards fall well short of 300!

 

[crmsnrevelation]

This game scares the crap (mild language comared to what I really feel) out of me. Can alabama play shooutout if we can't get the picks. The real first test for our D. Lets go bama!!!

 

[bamacon]

Mallet being an obvious exclusion, what has changed with Arkansas? Ryan Mallet is solid but he can't score from the sideline. Alabama ran all over this bunch last year, and this year's team seems to be just as capable. Does anyone believe VaTech's D is not as good as Ark.? Alabama should be able to absolutely dominate this team from start to finish. The only way Ark. stays in this one is if AL's D just implodes on every series and I just can't see that happening, or the offense gets turnover prone which also is doubtful. This program will scare me when they get a productive defense, but until then I think the Hogs are in for a very long day.

 

[BamaMoon]

As best as I can remember, every td that opposing teams have scored this year has been the result of a busted defensive assignment where the opposition got a huge chunk of yards on one play. So we really haven't seen a team that can move it up and down the field on the Bama defense yet. But that may change in this game. I could see the Hogs making a few drives and pushing them in for scores. The problem is I think they'll have to score 30+ points to win the game and I just don't see that happening. I'd add one Bama score to Jess' prediction and say Bama 45-Hogs 24.

 

[BigEasyTider]

Great preview, but I do have one minor nitpick...

You mentioned Alabama's secondary being vulnerable, and to that end pointed out that we are near the bottom in pass defense. I do take a bit of an issue with that simply because that metric is calculated based on total yardage allowed -- with no other considerations made for context -- and is basically a meaningless statistic. We rank low in pass defense not because of any particular struggles in the defensive backfield, but because we have faced two spread teams that have thrown the ball all over the field.

Looking more specifically at the rates, on the year our defensive stat line against the pass is 43-81 for 430 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. There are no two ways to splice that, that's very good. That's barely a 50% completion rate, only about 5.3 yards per attempt, and it gives us a pass efficiency defense of approximately 103.3.

Furthermore, when you take into account sacks -- which are of course counted as running plays in college football -- everything becomes more impressive. We've had 10 sacks on the year for a combined loss of 76 yards. If you factor that in, we've had about 91 passing plays on the year, and on those 91 plays we have combined to give up only 354 total yards, which is only about 3.8 yards per passing attempt. If there are many more teams out there that are, in real terms, allowing fewer than four yards per passing attempt, I don't know of them.

Now we may be shaky in the secondary, and admittedly the safety play has been a concern, but to date the pass defense has been about as good as you could reasonably expect.

 

[rgw]

That is the exact final score I was thinking: 38-24.

I believe Arkansas is kinda like Alabama under Kines in regard to defense: they "base" in a 4-3 but they play a lot of 4-2-5. Don't quote me on that...but that seemed to be their primary defense last year.

 

[Hogmary]

My first post here from Hog Country. I thought it was an interesting analysis, though I was surprised that Arkansas was given the edge in special teams. Javier Arenas is a treat to watch (when not playing the Hogs). We do have good returners but abysmal punting and kick offs so far. The history of the Hogs under Broyles, Holtz and Hatfield included stout defense and great kicking. Hopefully, we will get back to that. Our defense is improving over last year, just young (and talented) and thin. Petrino puts more importance on recruiting defense than Nutt-less did, but it will take time. It was fun to watch the game with Georgia, although, I would have enjoyed it more if we'd been on the winning end. I've always pulled for Bama (when they are not playing the Hogs), after all, the Bear was an Arkansas native. My all-time favorite qbs in the NFL were the Snake and Starr with Namath a close third. Here's hoping for a great game on Saturday and excuse me for hoping that the Hogs come out on top.
Woooo Pig Soieee!

 

[jps1983]

My first post here from Hog Country. I thought it was an interesting analysis, though I was surprised that Arkansas was given the edge in special teams. Javier Arenas is a treat to watch (when not playing the Hogs).

Welcome to the board. I haven't seen Arkansas' ST play, but Tiffin missed 2 XPs last week (bad memories from Ark a few years ago) and we have given up at least one big kick return in each game (although the one against UNT was brought back due to a penalty), so ST play is close (or we lose the matchup) if Ark is as bad as you say b/c Javy and PJ (our punter) have been the lone bright spots thus far.

 

[HogNtheRock]

Arkansas preview: Hogs’ offense can match Tide blow for blow
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 23, 2009

For three weeks, Alabama has been preparing for either dynamic quarterbacks, high-powered offensive systems or improving programs trying to assert themselves on the college football landscape. On Saturday, Alabama will get a three-for-one deal.

For the full story, click here

Great read. Not a point I would argue with.

 

[JessN]

It was a good read, but I disagree with you in a few areas. You give their offensive players too much credit. They have played against air this year.

In the end, you have to ask yourself whether or not you would take any of their players over one of ours as individuals. I would not - not a single player. IMO, we win every category, and the only one that is close is QB. But you are entitled to your opinion...

Roll Tide!!!

I'd take Joe Adams as the off-receiver right now. And I would CERTAINLY take D.J. Williams at H-back over Dial/Smelley. Williams was first-team all-SEC on a lot of ballots. If Alabama had Williams or someone like him right now, it would be almost unfair.

 

[NYBamaFan]

I'd take Joe Adams as the off-receiver right now. And I would CERTAINLY take D.J. Williams at H-back over Dial/Smelley. Williams was first-team all-SEC on a lot of ballots. If Alabama had Williams or someone like him right now, it would be almost unfair.

Wrong comparison, IMO. We should be comparing Williams to Peek based on what is asked of each in a game. I'd take Peek, but Williams is very good. Williams had a great year last year, but I think that Peek would be just as effective in that offense - if not more so. Peek is also 4 inches taller...

 

[BAMARICH]

Good preview as usual. One additional thing that I believe essential to giving a prediction is how the game starts. IF we get out in front quickly, it will a LONG day for Arkansas because our defense will not have to expect any runs. In that kind of scenario, I'd look for us to score 50+ and Arky in the high 20's.

For some reason, I keep remembering the Florida game when they came to BDS with a potent offense... but yet got hammered because of the start. FWIW, I'll go with that scenario Saturday primarily because I don't think they've played a good defense yet... and we're far above "good."

 

[rgw]

Wrong comparison, IMO. We should be comparing Williams to Peek based on what is asked of each in a game. I'd take Peek, but Williams is very good. Williams had a great year last year, but I think that Peek would be just as effective in that offense - if not more so. Peek is also 4 inches taller...

I dunno...I'd take Williams in an instant as the second TE/H-back...in fairness to the good players we have on our squad, Williams would simply make us filthy on offense. Two field stretching TEs to go with a good running game, a game changing WR in Julio, and a QB who likes to spread it around? We'd be literally unstoppable.

 

[NYBamaFan]

I dunno...I'd take Williams in an instant as the second TE/H-back...in fairness to the good players we have on our squad, Williams would simply make us filthy on offense. Two field stretching TEs to go with a good running game, a game changing WR in Julio, and a QB who likes to spread it around? We'd be literally unstoppable.

Agreed, but only to a point. I am still not convinced that Williams' numbers aren't a product of the system. He was thrown to more than 10 times in a number of games last year. Will we ever do that? And what might Peek have accomplished in that system?

I guess that I just see this one through my Crimson glasses... :wink:

 

[rgw]

Agreed, but only to a point. I am still not convinced that Williams' numbers aren't a product of the system. He was thrown to more than 10 times in a number of games last year. Will we ever do that? And what might Peek have accomplished in that system?

I guess that I just see this one through my Crimson glasses... :wink:

Well he did have to get open and catch the ball. To be sure, Petrino makes good use of the TE in crossing routes and down the seam...but it's not like you could throw a Travis McCall-type TE in there and get 50-some-odd catches like Williams did last year. Peek would thrive in Petrino's system, but he'd thrive in a system at any other school that makes good use of the TE.

 

[JessN]

Wrong comparison, IMO. We should be comparing Williams to Peek based on what is asked of each in a game. I'd take Peek, but Williams is very good. Williams had a great year last year, but I think that Peek would be just as effective in that offense - if not more so. Peek is also 4 inches taller...

Williams is 6'2", 250. That's exactly the size Travis McCall was last year. On top of that, when Arkansas goes Ace, a lot of times Williams goes to H and Cleveland is the Y. Williams was a fullback type who ended up at tight end, anyway. Furthermore, Alabama uses Peek at the H when he and Michael Williams are in the game at the same time.

Williams caught something like 65 passes for nearly 800 yards last year. Product of the system or not, that's good stuff. Not to mention he's capable of putting his hand down, lining up in the backfield and playing a fullback role. I promise you if he were at Alabama, he would be starting at H next to Peek at Y.

 

[PDL]

Great article, Jess. The only thing I would disagree with is the QB comparison. People are talking about some of Arky's players that they would or wouldn't trade for ours. Well here's my opinion on the QBs. Look, I love McElroy. He's had an incredible debut; worlds better than I thought he would have. He makes our O so much more dangerous and makes us a great team.

HOWEVER, if I had my pick of any QB in the nation not named Tebow, his name is Ryan Mallett. And yes, I'd take him over Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy. A 6' 7" 240 lb. QB that has a rocket arm and good decision making to boot? Are you kidding? With measurables like that, how can he not be the #1 QB take in the draft 2 years from now?

Concerning the game, I do think we'll win. However, I can see very easily in my mind Arky shooting out of the gate to a 21-0 lead, just like that. Perhaps unlikely, but this is Arky. Both teams give each other headaches every year. If we can get pressure on Mallett and not have a swiss cheese secondary like UGA had last week (shouldn't be hard), we should be able to keep them from scoring on every drive. On O, I think we'll be able to pass the ball, but I hope we can run it up and down the field on them. Ball control, 13 play, 5 minute drives will destroy their D and keep Mallett and his receivers cool and on the sidelines.

My one intangible that I'm bringing into this game is that I'm hoping the Georgia game will cause Arky to be an emotional wreck before the game with us. I imagine the confusion their team is having from running up huge O numbers on UGA and seemingly about to run away with the game, only to have UGA put up BIGGER O against their pathetic D may crush their confidence a little before playing with us. At least that's what I'm hoping.