I really don’t think they do. They are supposed to (there is something off in their metrics) but just take a gander at that Indiana schedule
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Bama vs. Indy in the Rose Bowl - Jan. 1
- Thread starter BamaMoon
- Start date
Yes, they do. It's just unemotional math for models, like FPI & SP+
Models are different than stat averages
I haven't watched enough of their games to have an informed, personal opinion. However, just by looking at the stats, it appears they are a bit feast-or-famine there...
They have 39.0 sacks for the year, averaging 3.0 sacks per game.
However, they've amassed 27.0 sacks in five games (averaging 5.4 sacks per game) - leaving only 12.0 sacks in their other eight games (averaging 1.5 sacks per game). Of course, two of those high sack total games were against the two best teams they played - Oregon and Ohio State - who didn't give up a ton of sacks on the season against other teams.
They obviously don't have as many names on NFL draft boards as other teams - even teams we've faced - but there's no questioning their performance. They've definitely exceeded their talent expectations...
Indiana has seven different players with at least two sacks on the season, and five players with at least five sacks on the season - but no one with double digits.
Contrast that with Texas Tech, which has only five players with multiple sacks on the season - but one player in double digits and another with 9.0 sacks on the season.
Alabama, similarly, has seven different players with multiple sacks on the season.
I'm guessing Indiana gets sacks with scheme more so than with sheer talent...
Contrast that with Texas Tech, which has only five players with multiple sacks on the season - but one player in double digits and another with 9.0 sacks on the season.
Alabama, similarly, has seven different players with multiple sacks on the season.
I'm guessing Indiana gets sacks with scheme more so than with sheer talent...
I understand the math. But parts of it are conjecture. Here is the formula
Core Components & Logic:
- Expected Points Added (EPA): This is the foundation. FPI analyzes every play to see how much it contributed to scoring, breaking it down by offense, defense, and special teams.
- Bayesian Regression: This statistical method updates each unit's (offense/defense/special teams) performance, adjusting for the strength of the opponent faced and the game's location.
- Preseason Inputs: Before the season, factors like returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure help establish initial "prior" ratings.
- Game-Level Adjustments: For each game, factors like QB injury, travel distance, and rest days are incorporated into the projection.
- Simulations: The system runs thousands (e.g., 20,000) of season simulations using the current FPI ratings and schedules to predict outcomes like win/loss records and playoff chances.
Is that FPI?
Number 2 addresses it:
"adjusting for the strength of the opponent faced and the game's location"
SP+ has it baked in from the start. The whole point is that every team's performance ends up factoring into every team's ranking... "How would a given team fare against a perfectly average team?" And the computer knows precisely what a perfectly average team looks like, because it's modeling every single team. That inherently means schedule strength is factored into it
You asked a question, and I gave you an answer. Yes, they account for schedule strength. Some people have financial interests at being correct instead of emotional fanhood clouding their opinions. Those are the people who build the models
I don't understand what's controversial about saying (1) our schedule is measurably tougher than IU's (and might give us an advantage), while also saying (2) IU is a really, really good team
I suppose you can say "IU didn't play anybody" but there's no objective way you can prove it, it's just an emotional opinion (or conjecture, if you prefer)
They had zero sacks against Maryland, one each against Iowa and Purdue. Did their defense just take those games off or did those teams figure out their defense better than the other teams they played?
I've just looked up the play-by-play for both the Oregon and Ohio State games and watched the 11 sacks Indiana racked up in those two games.
Based on those two games, my feeling is that those sack numbers were more about effort and discipline on Indiana's part than talent or even scheme, really.
Of the 11 sacks, I put five of them firmly on the two QBs. There were at least six seconds from snap to hit on each of them.
Of the other six sacks, IU brought at least five rushers on five of them and three of them were blitzes by a LB or a DB.
Indiana's sacks versus Ohio State:
- First sack was on Sayin - six seconds to the hit. (3rd and 5)
- Second sack was on Sayin and/or the OC - Sayin rolled out away from an outside blitzer but got caught from behind. Another six seconds from snap to hit. (3rd and 6)
- Third sack - IU brought four against six blockers. Right guard and tackle were both one-on-one and both lost, collapsing the pocket. Four seconds from snap to hit. (2nd and 6)
- Fourth sack - IU brought five rushers against six blockers, though the RB could have chipped someone, if needed, after the play-action. Right guard just got beat. 4.5-5 seconds from snap to hit. (1st and 10)
- Fifth sack - IU brought five against six blockers. Right guard just got beat. Four seconds from snap to hit. Sayin actually avoided the sack but the ref had prematurely blown the whistle. (2nd and 15, back-to-back sacks)
- IU brought four against six blockers. Play action. Six seconds from snap to hit. Poor pocket presence by Moore. (14:59 1st - 1st and 10)
- IU brought four against five blockers. Moore eventually scrambled out but was looking downfield. Seven seconds from snap to hit. (10:06 2nd - 3rd and 6)
- Blitz. IU brought five against six blockers, including the RB. Blitzing LB came free up the middle and the RB missed the block. Less than three seconds from snap to hit. (7:13 2nd - 3rd and 10)
- IU brought four against five blockers. This one's all on the QB. Over eight seconds from snap to hit. (12:27 3rd - 2nd and 6)
- Blitz. IU showed six and brought five against five blockers, overloading the left side. Unblocked blitzing LB made the sack. 4-5 seconds from snap to hit. (14:59 4th - 3rd and 11)
- Delayed blitz. IU brought six against six blockers. Right tackle just whiffed, Moore scrambled, and a late-blitzing LB plus a DL cleaned it up. (6:17 4th - 1st and 10)
My guess is that Indiana didn't generate many sacks against quick-passing attacks or when teams kept extra blockers in to protect the QB.
They do look to have some decent blitz packages, so communication and discipline will be key. However, watching all of these plays does give me some idea why they were a bit feast-or-famine on sacks this season - with their higher sack totals mostly coming on situational downs and distances and/or points in the game.
I didn't notice anyone on their defensive line that looked like they could just line up and whip you on any given play. Their pressure can most likely be effectively game-planned against. It'll just depend on execution...
I know that you know what I meant...
The Yankees used to buy up the best players until MLB stepped in.
THAT is where we are in CFB at the moment.
Actually I don't. The Yankees still do that along with the Dodgers. They skirt the rules by paying a salary cap tax and deferring payments. The dodgers will be paying Ohtani many years after he retires. The MLB salary cap is a joke.I know that you know what I meant...
The Yankees used to buy up the best players until MLB stepped in.
THAT is where we are in CFB at the moment.
I think some of y'all may have let the comeback win against Oklahoma affect you like the Indiana fans and some of their players feel after beating tOSU. I do not know how good Indiana is, but they beat tOSU which is arguably the most talented team in college football. Cignetti is a very good coach and having coached for CNS a number of years he is not going to let his team buy into we beat tOSU, and Alabama isn't nearly as good. Yes, we have more overall talent than Indiana, played a tougher schedule, but whether our coaching is better is yet to be seen.
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OK, go back farther than that....
Salary Caps were basically a result of what the Yankees were doing back in the day.
No doubt Selma could do a better job than I at explaining my point.
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I'm guessing that Iowa is not a pass heavy team, so opportunities for sacks would be minimal...
Don't have a clue on those other two teams.
One of the first things Cignetti said after winning the Big Ten was ruminating on how he would bring his team back down to Earth for the playoff run. There is more Saban in him than I want to see on the other sideline.
Haven’t read thru the thread but my god are these Indiana fans insufferable. Nouveau riche loudmouths ruining my online experience. They really think they are gonna win by 3 plus scores.
Yeah... Have heard good, well played defense, but nothing like the edge guys we've seen this year.
I hope our guys are catching wind of how the Indiana fans are reacting. Good material to post in the locker room.
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