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CFN: 2026 Rose Bowl Prediction: Alabama vs Indiana CFP Quarterfinal

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Ty Simpson has to out-Mendoza, Mendoza.

Simpson can get hot, but he can't afford to spray the ball the few times a game that he does. He's got to connect on 75% of his throws, because the running game won't be there.

How did Alabama beat Georgia the first time around? It totally dominated the clock, connecting on seemingly every third down play - the Bulldog offense was never on the field.

Indiana is second in the nation in third down stops and seventh in the time of possession battle. Alabama was 2-of-12 on third downs against Oklahoma.

The Hoosiers have to collapse. Give Bama credit, it won the game when Oklahoma flung the door wide open to plow through.

Indiana won't be great - the other side will have something to do with that - but it also won't screw up enough for Bama to pull this off.
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2026 Rose Bowl Prediction: Alabama vs Indiana CFP Quarterfinal

I will NOT take it!​

 
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Before I read this I'm going to guess the score prediction.

Indiana 27-14
 
Ohio state should have won their game...the 4th down inside the 10, the missed FG etc...plus OSU had played no one of any note up until that game. Penn St should have beaten them too...that was a complete collapse and a miracle reception. Both were able to pressure Mendoza...and I think we can too. Athletically, we need to stop #80 from being Mendoza's comfort blankie...and stifle the running game. Mendoza makes mistakes...he isn't Joe Burrow. If we don't turn it over, I think we can grind out a win...and a little saltiness from being the underdog will help too.
 
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Write us off we ain’t writing back… the Big Ten is S O F T … we play our A game it isn’t going to be in the 6 pt range and will be in our favor
 
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Plus, with the game being played at the Rose Bowl, I think we're looking at about as true a neutral site game as you'll find because there's no way they out-travel Alabama - even with their fans itching for this since IU hasn't played a meaningful bowl game in a century. Heck, if we were playing in the Sugar, Peach, or Orange, the crowd would likely have skewed Alabama-heavy. As it is, they should have little-to-no fan advantage, and both teams are traveling the exact same distance (literally within 20 miles).
 
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Nah, don’t see it. If that prediction is the final score it’ll be flipped. I’m guessing more points overall in an uncomfortable, stressful, very long game. Prolly 38-35 kinda game and a turnover or missed FG determines the winner.
 
81usaf92 said:
Yeah I saw it yesterday. I think there is a lot of trust that Indiana is really the great team that the media is making them out to be and Alabama is a has been living on borrowed time. I just don’t think Indiana can handle the stage.
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I hope you're right. I can see a script that goes our way but I'm worried about their pass rush
 
I'll be honest, I am not going to put any credence into any previews for this game, because I genuinely don't believe there is a college football expert that will be able to preview this game with any level of confidence for a number of reasons. The only two previews I will probably even read or listen to are the ones from Tidefans, because it is genuinely the most real preview for any Alabama game, and College Football Nerds, because they get heavy into the analytics and it will be interesting to see what their analytics say and their thoughts on how accurate those analytics are.

First, who knows what version of our offense will show up? We had essentially 8 straight quarters of awful offensive football between the 2nd quarter of the Auburn game until the 2nd quarter of the Oklahoma game. Then we decided to get serious and play well offensively. I think we actually might have a chance at running the ball against IU because I don't really know how well their defensive front stacks up to a top tier SEC defensive front, which is all we've faced for what feels like all season. Plus, I think the coaching staff has finally figured out that Daniel Hill is our best threat and can get yards and will be the bell cow for the rest of the playoffs.

I said this in another thread, but the Big 10 has really isolated themselves from the rest of the college football world. They had three noteworthy games outside of the conference this year (Texas/OSU, Mich/OU, and USC/ND). IU certainly has no games of significance outside of their conference schedule, and neither do the teams they have played other than Ohio State. Therefore, it's difficult to determine if they are a good to really good team or if they are a great team.

I think the only two knowns going into this game are that Alabama has an elite defense, and Indiana is well balanced on offense and defense. Outside of that, I thinks it's a complete crap shoot in terms of how well they matchup against one another.

I think Mendoza is a really good QB, and deserved the Heisman in a year that there just weren't any other dominant players. I think Cignetti is a great coach, and definitely a top 5 in college football. The Ohio State win is definitely impressive, but watching that game it was clear Ohio State had the better team, they just stubbed their toe too many times.

I just don't know how good they really are, not because it's Indiana, but because there is so little to measure their body of work against other than beating teams that are thought to be really good within their conference. I realize that the pushback on that will be that you can make the same argument for any SEC team, but I just feel like there are so many more non-conference power 4 games that the SEC plays versus how many the Big 10 does, that a significantly more educated conclusion can be drawn of how good or bad SEC teams are compared to the rest of the college football world.
 
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This will be Indiana's first-ever game while ranked #1.

It ain't the same thing, folks.

Lots of teams can climb into the spot and then the pressure pushes down even more. And in this case on guys who haven't been there.

I have a lot of concerns about us - but for whatever reason, we've tended to play better against the better teams, too (the SECCG was an exception).
 
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I really believe we are looking at each game now as the National Title. A win over Oklahoma was all that mattered last evening. It's "win" or "be gone" now. It's urgency on steroids. We truly get to see the best rise above in this scenario. I hate what the new CFP has done to the importance of the conference title games, and the regular season to a greater extent.

Indiana will get our best shot. There is some small potential that IU has sat for too long by the time Jan 1 rolls around. And, I continue to have no confidence in the schedule they have played. It's much more "even" of a game than it appears on paper.

One critical part to me: being able to contain their running game, and Alabama being able to get something going on the ground. Offensive lines versus defensive lines.

And that's something that is a constant in football, even after all the changes the sport continues to go through.
 
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