Are y'all starting to get worried that the longer we keep sitting at sub-top10, the harder it's going to be for us to make the CFP even if we win out? Seems like the longer we sit outside the top 10, the lower our chances of making CFP are.
CFP Chances
- Thread starter MetaZeus
- Start date
I'd be more worried if I thought we had a top 6 team this year. Not much worried about it.
Personally, I'm not worried about it at all.
I don't truly believe we are good enough to win a championship and I've accepted that. If we make the CFP I'll be pleasantly surprised. Anything above a 10 win season will make me happy with this team.
I don't truly believe we are good enough to win a championship and I've accepted that. If we make the CFP I'll be pleasantly surprised. Anything above a 10 win season will make me happy with this team.
Not really worried about the CFP. This team makes me worry about every single drive in every single game.
The ranking is probably about right. We aren't a top 4 team NOW. Without tons of improvement it won't change by the end of the year.
Maybe this year, but the only way we make it anyway is winning out (includes SECCG). Next year I believe the playoff expands to 12, so no problem next year making it. Just Win Baby!
The remaining schedule of games will sort out the spots. An SEC champ with 1 loss has a statistically high chance of being in the final 4
The current polls are complete fiction.
EVERY poll you have until the final CFP selection poll is between 98% and 100% fiction.
I say 98% because I doubt we'll ever see some 16th ranked one-loss team pole vault to number four on the last weekend, but we have to concede they DO rank them so on occasion anyone from 5-8 can move up to four in the last poll.
Polls literally mean nothing. NO-THING!!!
They're only published now to give TV things to boast about their matchup and fans to boast about who apparently haven't paid any attention whatsoever to the changes in CFB the last 25 years.
In 2015, Alabama was #7 in the AP poll and then - two days later - the CFP poll came out and voila!
Alabama was suddenly #4. We beat #2 LSU and the AP poll took the hint and suddenly we were #3.
Polls. Mean. Nothing.
EVERY poll you have until the final CFP selection poll is between 98% and 100% fiction.
I say 98% because I doubt we'll ever see some 16th ranked one-loss team pole vault to number four on the last weekend, but we have to concede they DO rank them so on occasion anyone from 5-8 can move up to four in the last poll.
Polls literally mean nothing. NO-THING!!!
They're only published now to give TV things to boast about their matchup and fans to boast about who apparently haven't paid any attention whatsoever to the changes in CFB the last 25 years.
In 2015, Alabama was #7 in the AP poll and then - two days later - the CFP poll came out and voila!
Alabama was suddenly #4. We beat #2 LSU and the AP poll took the hint and suddenly we were #3.
Polls. Mean. Nothing.
I agree with Selma. Just continue to win and rest will take care of itself. I will never understand why people care about polls at this time of the year.
Considering I thought we were a 7-5 team after the Texas game, well, I have 99 problems and the playoffs ain't one.
For this team getting through Tennessee and LSU without a loss would be a significant challenge. Even playing Kentucky there will be challenging at times. To me these games depend on excellent defensive performances. Difficult to see Milroe making a significant improvement in terms of moving the sticks on long drives.LOL, I'm worried about beating tennessee.
To be fair, if you've been a college football fan along time this IS the way that it used to be. But for somebody who's just become a fan in the last 20 years, I am not sure why I get the obsession over the polls.
I started watching during the Mike Shula era, but this isn't an obsession with polls. I am concerned that if we do not place high enough in the initial polls, winning out will not be enough to place us in the playoffs without the help of other teams taking significant losses.
Do not be concerned. The playoff committee does not do voting based on last week's vote.
Every poll is a NEW poll. It does not matter where you were the week prior. They've proven this. All the polls that start in October are nothing more than a show filler.
Our path to the playoffs is very clear. If we win out then we get in. If we don’t win out, even if we win the SECCG, then we don’t get in. The rankings will sort themselves. I don’t think there is a scenario that exists where we don’t make the playoffs if we win out.
I'm not worried about the polls. First we need to put more points on the board than all of the rest of the teams we play. Then several undefeated teams have to lose to lower ranked teams for us to even worry about the polls. But mostly we have to take care of business ourselves. Polls are simply a distraction.
There are currently 8 undefeated teams of consequence:
1. Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan all play each other before their championship game, so there will be at least 4 losses there probably eliminating 2 teams:
So, then there are 6 teams:
2. We have to win out and then likely beat Georgia if they are undefeated, leaving 5 undefeated teams, none of which will be better than our record against the schedule we are playing.
3. Oklahoma has to win out, which is possible.
5 undefeated left:
4. Washington has 3 ranked teams in a row to beat, so I expect them to struggle in one game at least, leaving 4 undefeated teams.
4 undefeated teams:
5. North Carolina and Florida State will have to play in their championship game, so there's 3 undefeated left.
So, there you go, we win out, we're likely in if we play good football since our loss was early in the season.
You could say Texas will get in before us, or a 1 loss Oklahoma, but I think the team that beats the number 1 team will get in.
There are currently 8 undefeated teams of consequence:
1. Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan all play each other before their championship game, so there will be at least 4 losses there probably eliminating 2 teams:
So, then there are 6 teams:
2. We have to win out and then likely beat Georgia if they are undefeated, leaving 5 undefeated teams, none of which will be better than our record against the schedule we are playing.
3. Oklahoma has to win out, which is possible.
5 undefeated left:
4. Washington has 3 ranked teams in a row to beat, so I expect them to struggle in one game at least, leaving 4 undefeated teams.
4 undefeated teams:
5. North Carolina and Florida State will have to play in their championship game, so there's 3 undefeated left.
So, there you go, we win out, we're likely in if we play good football since our loss was early in the season.
You could say Texas will get in before us, or a 1 loss Oklahoma, but I think the team that beats the number 1 team will get in.
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The rankings will sort themselves out. There's always a bunch of undefeated teams at this time of the year. Give it a few more weeks. If we win out, we are in
Without meaning to escalate the discussion tension, this is not how it works anymore.
That was a legit fear in the Shula era.
It doesn't matter now, particularly since the AP poll is a relic with no influence.
I'd say the most likely to stay undefeated is Oklahoma.....unless they just completely have a meltdown. Their remaining games are UCF, at Kansas, at Oklahoma State, WVU, at BYU, TCU....then they'll play Texas again for the Big 12 championship.
If the Big 12 championship game is OU 12-0 vs Texas 11-1, then that's likely a play in game. Winner makes the CFP.
Ohio State hosts Penn State this weekend....the only other game they could lose would be at Michigan in November. So for the Big 10 it plays out like this.....
10/21 - Penn State at Ohio State
11/11 - Michigan at Penn State
11/25 - Ohio State at Michigan
Whomever comes out of that 2-0 is in the CFP. If they all go 1-1, things get murky because all of their schedules have been trash outside of those 3 dates.
Georgia, without Bowers, may have some issues in their next 4 games. They'll out talent Florida, then they host Missouri, host Ole Miss, and go to Knoxville. Without Bowers, I can see them losing at least 1 of their last 3 SEC games.
Florida State....they've got Duke at home this weekend, but should probably handle them. They've got Miami on 11/11 on the road....they probably win that too. Likely to be FSU - North Carolina in the ACCCG and NC isn't a push over.
North Carolina....probably will be 9-0 win Duke comes to them. Then they go to Clemson the next week. I could see them losing 1.
Washington probably is 8-0 when they go to USC. Then they play a team with a defense, Utah, the next week at home, then at Oregon State, then home for the WSU.
Oregon plays WSU this weekend. If they are hungover, they'll get beat. If they are mad, they win big and head to Utah. They've got USC at home and Oregon State at home. Likely Pac 12 CG would be Washington vs Oregon. Winner is in the CFP.....if Oregon wins, Washington may still make it.
With how we play though, I'm struggling to see us finishing out 5-0 to play UGA. That LSU offense....and us having a scoring average of 27.6 vs Texas and the 4 SEC games....we could be trouble.
If the Big 12 championship game is OU 12-0 vs Texas 11-1, then that's likely a play in game. Winner makes the CFP.
Ohio State hosts Penn State this weekend....the only other game they could lose would be at Michigan in November. So for the Big 10 it plays out like this.....
10/21 - Penn State at Ohio State
11/11 - Michigan at Penn State
11/25 - Ohio State at Michigan
Whomever comes out of that 2-0 is in the CFP. If they all go 1-1, things get murky because all of their schedules have been trash outside of those 3 dates.
Georgia, without Bowers, may have some issues in their next 4 games. They'll out talent Florida, then they host Missouri, host Ole Miss, and go to Knoxville. Without Bowers, I can see them losing at least 1 of their last 3 SEC games.
Florida State....they've got Duke at home this weekend, but should probably handle them. They've got Miami on 11/11 on the road....they probably win that too. Likely to be FSU - North Carolina in the ACCCG and NC isn't a push over.
North Carolina....probably will be 9-0 win Duke comes to them. Then they go to Clemson the next week. I could see them losing 1.
Washington probably is 8-0 when they go to USC. Then they play a team with a defense, Utah, the next week at home, then at Oregon State, then home for the WSU.
Oregon plays WSU this weekend. If they are hungover, they'll get beat. If they are mad, they win big and head to Utah. They've got USC at home and Oregon State at home. Likely Pac 12 CG would be Washington vs Oregon. Winner is in the CFP.....if Oregon wins, Washington may still make it.
With how we play though, I'm struggling to see us finishing out 5-0 to play UGA. That LSU offense....and us having a scoring average of 27.6 vs Texas and the 4 SEC games....we could be trouble.
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