CFP Chances

[selmaborntidefan]

As a reminder:

2014 INITIAL CFP RANKINGS
1) Miss State (7-0)
2) Florida State (7-0)
3) Auburn (6-1)
4) Ole Miss (7-1)
5) Oregon (7-1)
6) Alabama (7-1)
7) TCU (6-1)

2019 INITIAL CFP RANKINGS
1) Ohio State (8-0)
2) LSU (8-0)
3) Alabama (8-0)
4) Penn St (8-0)
5) Clemson (9-0)
12) Baylor (8-0)
17) Minnesota (8-0)

 

[jashleyren2]

I started watching during the Mike Shula era, but this isn't an obsession with polls. I am concerned that if we do not place high enough in the initial polls, winning out will not be enough to place us in the playoffs without the help of other teams taking significant losses.

If we were to somehow win out, Alabama won't be ignored. The number 1 team in the land would be our date for the SECCG, and a win over them would lock the Tide into the CFP.

I'm not implying that I believe we could beat UGA. I don't believe we can. I don't even know how we'll do against UT, LSU, UK, and for God sakes, Agbarn.

Everything in college football in mid October is premature. For sure this year. Most of the Big 10 conference and Pac 12 conferences haven't even started to play each other's best teams yet. November will sort it out.

 

[TexasBama]

I can't do anything about it, so I'm neither worried nor concerned.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I'm not worried about the polls. First we need to put more points on the board than all of the rest of the teams we play. Then several undefeated teams have to lose to lower ranked teams for us to even worry about the polls. But mostly we have to take care of business ourselves. Polls are simply a distraction.

There are currently 8 undefeated teams of consequence:
1. Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan all play each other before their championship game, so there will be at least 4 losses there probably eliminating 2 teams:

So, then there are 6 teams:
2. We have to win out and then likely beat Georgia if they are undefeated, leaving 5 undefeated teams, none of which will be better than our record against the schedule we are playing.
3. Oklahoma has to win out, which is possible.

5 undefeated left:
4. Washington has 3 ranked teams in a row to beat, so I expect them to struggle in one game at least, leaving 4 undefeated teams.

4 undefeated teams:
5. North Carolina and Florida State will have to play in their championship game, so there's 3 undefeated left.

So, there you go, we win out, we're likely in if we play good football since our loss was early in the season.

You could say Texas will get in before us, or a 1 loss Oklahoma, but I think the team that beats the number 1 team will get in.

The only problem with this is that Georgia is going to lose at least once before the SEC championship.

 

[Tide&True]

As we see every year there are teams that will lose games they were predicted to win. I’m not sure Georgia even makes it unscathed. What we have witnessed so far is Milroe is doing on the job training. Our Defense is what’s keeping us in games right now but we need to score more points on offense. This is the most unusual year I’ve seen in a long time. We may not see a clear picture until the last games of the season.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

If we were to somehow win out, Alabama won't be ignored.

I've heard "de Bama fateeg is weal" for so long, it's refreshing to see this sober and correct analysis.
Spot on, excellent.


Sadly - I suspect we will be watching the good teams still playing in the four-team battle royal.
But I'd be glad to be wrong, too.

 

[BhamToTexas]

It is funny, every year at this time people say there is this long list of teams that will go undefeated. It doesn't usually happen.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

If we have only 1 loss and beat UGA (with or without Bowers) we'll make the playoff. Anyone who beats a two-time defending National Champion gets attention.

 

[Grogan11]

We should all be Georgia fans until the SEC championship game. A win over an undefeated two time defending champ is a guaranteed spot.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

We should all be Georgia fans until the SEC championship game. A win over an undefeated two time defending champ is a guaranteed spot.

I wouldn't pull for UGA with one engine out on the team charter.

 

[BamaMoon]

Some great posts here - the other teams (ranked higher right now) will likely stumble. History bears this out.

I'm more worried about us being ready to slide into an opening if it occurs.

It's not just about winning out, but we have to improve mightily in several areas.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Too many games left to be played. We are in if we win out like every year.

PAC will eat itself.
B1G will too
B12 is likely OU or no one because I expect UT to lose again

And then there is Bama and UGA

Too many games left to worry

 

[CB4]

I’ll just order both CFP tickets and Taxslayer Gator Bowl. You know, hedge my bets.

 

[bamamc1]

Not really worried one way or another. But, I’m pulling for this team as much as any I can remember for a myriad of reasons. RTR

 

[92tide]

We should all be Georgia fans until the SEC championship game. A win over an undefeated two time defending champ is a guaranteed spot.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

As long as we win out then are chances of making the CFBP are pretty good.

They aren’t going to leave out a 12-1 SEC Champion unless there are 4 undefeated teams ahead of us with better resumes OR 3 Undefeated teams and 1 loss Texas.

How often have there been 3-4 Undefeated teams at the end?

So we have to just keep winning and the rest will take care of itself.

Lose to anyone else and we are out.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Oh and as for the secondary discussion…

I’ll admit that I like having the AP and Coaches polls but I’m an old school fan that’s been watching CFB since the early 80’s.

With how much the game has changed I find the polls to be like a comfort food.

It’s nice having something that acts as a general gauge of ‘How Good’ everyone is across the country.

It’s not perfect but it’s something.

 

[alwayshavebeen]

Win out and it makes no difference what anyone else does...We are in the playoff. Besides, things are about to start going crazy and it's not even rivalry weekend and conference championships yet.
Us winning out is the question and we have no more mulligans.

 

[Tidewater]

LOL, I'm worried about beating tennessee.

I had the same reaction.
Holy cow, this team still has some significant things to sort out before anyone thinks about the playoffs.

 

[CajunCrimson]

I had the same reaction.
Holy cow, this team still has some significant things to sort out before anyone thinks about the playoffs.

I disagree. We expect to be in the playoffs. I do every year. I never think we aren’t in, until we get loss 2. Ironically I still think we should have been in last year too.