CFP standings for 11/19/2019

[Bamabuzzard]

This is just my opinion. I think as long as we beat Auburn by 10-14 points with MJ the committee will put us above Georgia. Our 1 loss to the #1 team by 5 points out weighs the UGA loss to SC. We will probably sit at #5 until the iron bowl. Of course, if LSU wins the SEC Championship, we will be #4. I don't think the committee will judge Alabama based off the loss of Tua, but more as a complete team. Its time for us to shine....

That's why I think we have to have a very good showing this weekend AND in the Iron Bowl. No way we can look sloppy and sluggish this weekend and do the same in the Iron Bowl, regardless of if we win. We have to show signs of a championship quality team with Mac Jones as quarterback.

 

[2ndand26]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I thought it was interesting the committee put Southern Cal in at 23 after not being in at all. Yet Texas AM played a tougher schedule with 1 less loss and is not ranked.

I think they did this to set it up to say that Oregon beat another ranked team (and Bama hasn't yet) to help put Oregon in over Bama in the end.

Hopefully there will be chaos but I am not counting on it.

Perhaps. Championships won, head-to-head results, strength of schedule, and comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory) should be applied as tie-breakers when "circumstances at the margins" indicate comparable teams. The criteria are defined within a bulleted list and thus, are not applied sequentially and are not weighted. I'm sure that design was on purpose to provide great flexability; this works in Bama's favor. The media haters seem to think conference championships trump all. This simply isn't the case due to the "bulleted list" protocol construct. Otherwise, why not number the criteria?

My argument is that "curcumstances at the margins" do not indicate comparable teams when comparing Bama to the Oregon, Utah or Oklahoma. In my mind, considering that Bama is projected by numerous mock NFL drafts to have upwards of 10 players selected in the first two rounds, coupled with the "eye test", it is clear (perhaps not unambiguously, therefore, no use of the word "unequivocol") that Bama is a much better team.

So if it isn't "unequivocol" in the committee's mind, and considering the criteria are defined in a bulleted list (not applied in sequence), the following comes into play when selecting the four BEST teams:

Championships Won: Oregon/Utah/Oklahoma.
Strength of Schedule: Oregon 44, Bama 34, Utah 50, Oklahoma 45.
Head-to-Head Results: N/A in the case of Bama; one of Utah/Oregon out.
Comparative Outcomes of Common Opponents: Bama (Auburn).
Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance: Oregon was not fully loaded for Auburn; Bama key injuries on defense; Tua.

Bama gets two of the five criteria. The "Other Relevant Factors" is a wash (unless you can say Bama cannot succeed going forward due to the absence of Tua.)

What concerns me are the data points to be used to determine "unequivocality" as I don't think they exist in Bama's favor, regardless of "eye test". Regardless of data point used, one could make a case for Oregon (as is the case with Total Defense) over Bama or Bama (as is the case with Total Offence), depending upon the data point.

Therefore, I see great flexibility. It would not surprise me if Bama is declared unequivocolly better. It also wouldn't surprise me - using Oregan as a conference champion example - that Bama gets bumped. I think regardless of what happens, the committee's position will be defensible.

As for me, I want to see those 10 or so Bama players projected to sign in the first two rounds of the NFL draft on the field in the CFP. That, in my mind, makes them "unequivocolly" better.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I think the analysis is cool. And I enjoy reading it and discussing it.

The biggest thing to remember, is that none of this matters until AFTER the conference championship games are completed.....

I still think OU gets a loss. Ore/Utah - at least one will get a loss (possibly both). I think A&M has a lot to say about how LSU/UGA end up. And PSU/tOSU will play. In fact tOSU has to likely play Penn State, Michigan and Minnesota/Wisconsin - back to back to back (ouch!!).....

Clemson (to me) is the only sure thing.

All others are totally - "wait and see"

I think when it's all said and done..... there will be only 1 or 2 undefeated teams. And, there may only be 4 with 1 or fewer losses.....

It will work itself out.....you can just feel it

 

[TideEngineer08]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I think the analysis is cool. And I enjoy reading it and discussing it.

The biggest thing to remember, is that none of this matters until AFTER the conference championship games are completed.....

I still think OU gets a loss. Ore/Utah - at least one will get a loss (possibly both). I think A&M has a lot to say about how LSU/UGA end up. And PSU/tOSU will play. In fact tOSU has to likely play Penn State, Michigan and Minnesota/Wisconsin - back to back to back (ouch!!).....

Clemson (to me) is the only sure thing.

All others are totally - "wait and see"

I think when it's all said and done..... there will be only 1 or 2 undefeated teams. And, there may only be 4 with 1 or fewer losses.....

It will work itself out.....you can just feel it

We need a little bit of 2007 to sneak into the last few weeks of the season.

 

[Cruloc]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I think the talking head narrative will be....Bama is not a playoff team minus Tua at QB. How much of that permeates into the committee thinking? How much of that narrative is changed if Mac leads the team to a 3 TD victory over Auburn?

 

[B1GTide]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I think the talking head narrative will be....Bama is not a playoff team minus Tua at QB. How much of that permeates into the committee thinking? How much of that narrative is changed if Mac leads the team to a 3 TD victory over Auburn?

If you heard what they actually said yesterday after the vote, they think that Alabama has a better resume than the teams behind them, with specific reasoning for putting Alabama ahead of Oregon and Utah.

 

[GrayTide]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

If you heard what they actually said yesterday after the vote, they think that Alabama has a better resume than the teams behind them, with specific reasoning for putting Alabama ahead of Oregon and Utah.

I absolutely agree that Alabama is better than Utah and Oregon, but they would not beat any of the four teams ahead of them. Just an opinion based on what I know right now.

 

[Saban4Ever]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I absolutely agree that Alabama is better than Utah and Oregon, but they would not beat any of the four teams ahead of them. Just an opinion based on what I know right now.

I don't think Oregon or Utah would beat any of the other teams in the top 4. Bama might or might not, depending on injuries and who we play. I would still like for Bama to make the playoffs, even if we don't win the first game.

Bama would be the only team to make it each year, it would help recruiting, and the players would get to experience another playoff trip. Mac would have another 4 weeks to get better, so anything can happen if the team is healthy.

 

[B1GTide]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I absolutely agree that Alabama is better than Utah and Oregon, but they would not beat any of the four teams ahead of them. Just an opinion based on what I know right now.

Let's get there and then find out.

:cheers2:

 

[Jay Hughes]

I absolutely agree that Alabama is better than Utah and Oregon, but they would not beat any of the four teams ahead of them. Just an opinion based on what I know right now.

Actually, that is based on what you think you know right now. We don’t know until we play the games. Now that is a fact!

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I absolutely agree that Alabama is better than Utah and Oregon, but they would not beat any of the four teams ahead of them. Just an opinion based on what I know right now.

So UGA and Clemson have impressed you? I agree that their ability to play poorly against teams whose name ends in “arolina” is impressive. But to assume either would Beat Bama is just your doomsday view we have grown to love

Always “Gray” skies when you post

 

[BamaInBham]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

Another important factor that the Committee considers:

Bill Connelly's SP+ ranking (removes garbage time and considers competition):
Bama - 2 (the "value" gap between Bama and Utah is greater than the gap between Utah and #9)
Utah - 6
OU - 7
Oreg - 12

Sagarin
Bama - 3 (the "value" gap between Bama and OU is greater than the gap between OU and #14)
OU - 6
Oreg - 7
Utah - 11

ESPN's FPI ranking:
Bama - 3 (the "value" gap between Bama and Oregon is far greater than the gap between Oregon and #14
Oreg - 7
OU - 8
Utah - 13

There's a clear gap between Alabama and the other most likely contenders for the 4 spot. In fact, the ranking "value" gap is far greater than the positional gap in all 3 rankings. I.e., Bama looks like they are on another level from the other 3. My guess is that these and other computer/analytics type rankings are a big reason why the CFPC has Bama ranked at 5. These 3 are valued to some degree by many, especially the SP+.

If UGA wins out - they are in; IMO deservedly so, even with the bad USCe loss. Bama would then be out unless LSU loses in the reg season. IMO, UGA is the biggest threat.

If PSU wins out and OSU only loses to them then the BIG10 will likely get 2 in. Though PSU beating OSU seems much less likely than UGA beating LSU.

In summary: Alabama has legitimate hope if they win out, especially if Mac looks competent.

 

[Cruloc]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

I don't think Oregon or Utah would beat any of the other teams in the top 4. Bama might or might not, depending on injuries and who we play. I would still like for Bama to make the playoffs, even if we don't win the first game.

Bama would be the only team to make it each year, it would help recruiting, and the players would get to experience another playoff trip. Mac would have another 4 weeks to get better, so anything can happen if the team is healthy.

With so many injuries....I'd prefer to sit this playoff out and get a nice bowl. Unless this team can regroup and those young guys can play above themselves, I'd rather not get boat raced in the playoff by LSU, Ohio State, or Clemson. This team is so depleted, especially defensively. Not trying to be down about their chances, that just seems like the reality this November.

Now, if they somehow blow the doors off Jordan-Hare, then we can talk about why they should be in over Oregon/Utah. But right now, the top 3 teams have separated themselves....and I think LSU is the weakest of the 3 with that porous D they've got. Think the title game will be Ohio State vs. Clemson unless they go in as #2 and #3 in the semis.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

With so many injuries....I'd prefer to sit this playoff out and get a nice bowl. Unless this team can regroup and those young guys can play above themselves, I'd rather not get boat raced in the playoff by LSU, Ohio State, or Clemson. This team is so depleted, especially defensively. Not trying to be down about their chances, that just seems like the reality this November.

Now, if they somehow blow the doors off Jordan-Hare, then we can talk about why they should be in over Oregon/Utah. But right now, the top 3 teams have separated themselves....and I think LSU is the weakest of the 3 with that porous D they've got. Think the title game will be Ohio State vs. Clemson unless they go in as #2 and #3 in the semis.

Sorry, you deserve a really horrible Avatar for that.

NO BAMA FAN would ever NOT want to play for a Championship. Either you missed the blue font, or you need to just expose yourself as an Auburn/LSU/Clemson/UT fan -- or something.

This is a garbage post....

I've not seen one thing to make me believe we don't deserve to be in. We've dominated every team save LSU -- and that game we just dug a hole we couldn't get out of. I think we beat LSU straight up, even with Mac at QB.....because I think we figured out their offense in the second half.... our defense was just gassed at the end

 

[TideEngineer08]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

With so many injuries....I'd prefer to sit this playoff out and get a nice bowl. Unless this team can regroup and those young guys can play above themselves, I'd rather not get boat raced in the playoff by LSU, Ohio State, or Clemson. This team is so depleted, especially defensively. Not trying to be down about their chances, that just seems like the reality this November.

Now, if they somehow blow the doors off Jordan-Hare, then we can talk about why they should be in over Oregon/Utah. But right now, the top 3 teams have separated themselves....and I think LSU is the weakest of the 3 with that porous D they've got. Think the title game will be Ohio State vs. Clemson unless they go in as #2 and #3 in the semis.

I don't understand this mindset. If the team finishes 11-1, they deserve a shot, injuries or not. Now, other teams may also deserve it and they may get selected over us. So be it. But to throw up a flag of surrender before the games are even played? That's not logical to me. Ok so we get a "nice" bowl game. And then several other key players decide its best to sit that game out and prepare for the NFL draft (not saying anyone will but it has been happening for a few years now with other teams that didn't go to the playoffs). So now we are facing an Oklahoma team, with a motivated Jalen Hurts and all the nice little media circus that is going to bring with it, and most of our key players are out with injuries or prepping for the NFL draft. You would rather have that than to make the playoff in a possible rematch with LSU (who has no defense)?

I'm sorry. I'll take my chances with a national title on the line. I'd rather make it and miss than to not make it at all. I'm much happier with last year's NC appearance vs having to have gone to the Sugar Bowl even if we had won said Sugar Bowl. I'd rather be the 1990s Buffalo Bills, having lost 4 Super Bowls in a row, than being the rest of the AFC during that time frame who didn't even make the game at all.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

With so many injuries....I'd prefer to sit this playoff out and get a nice bowl. Unless this team can regroup and those young guys can play above themselves, I'd rather not get boat raced in the playoff by LSU, Ohio State, or Clemson. This team is so depleted, especially defensively. Not trying to be down about their chances, that just seems like the reality this November.

So you'd rather not have a shot at all than have a shot and risk getting beaten?

WHATTHEHECK kind of loser mentality is THAT?

Sorry, but I can't wrap my head around giving up before a game is even played. I sure hope the teammates thinks more highly of themselves than you seem to. In fact I'm certain they do.

 

[81usaf92]

Re: CFP standings for. 11/19/2019

Even if we get blasted in the 1st round of the playoffs... I would still want to be there. I think what many don't understand about the playoffs is that it is an accomplishment to get there. I think CNS has made us spoiled in winning NCs that we forget what a successful year looks like. Sure I would like another NC shirt to wear, but sometimes its just not our year, and some times for 2,3,and maybe even 4 years in a row its not our year. But being in position to win it all is something only 4 teams get to say.

 

[bamamc1]

I’d like to see us have a few weeks to heal up and see where we are. I don’t think we’d embarrass ourselves.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I'm not sure we are good enough to beat Clemson or Ohio State without Tua. And not sure about LSU either. BUT, I definitely would love a shot and love it even more to be proven wrong. FWIW, I don't think Oregon or Utah would stand a chance vs any of those 3 teams.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I don't think Oregon or Utah would stand a chance vs any of those 3 teams.

I don't think they'd stand a chance against Bama, either (and I think the committee agrees, which is why I don't think either overtakes Bama in the CFP).