Chris Low and Andy Staples on3 article - Early in KDB’s tenure, real concerns are surfacing in Tuscaloosa.

[bamajas]

Well first, let's try to create a bit of a baseline. A lot of people when they talk about first year coaches tend to look at coaches who replace a fired coach. Well, if the previous coach got fired, then generally the program isn't in great shape.

So you want to look for a coach who left when there weren't any major problems, when the program was on a good footing. Three names come to mind.

Les Miles at LSU
Year 1: 11-2
Year 2: 11-2

Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma
Year 1: 12-2
Year 2: 12-2

Ryan Day at Ohio State
Year 1: 3-0
Year 2 13-1
Year 3: 7-1

So, we've established you don't even have to be that great a coach to walk into a good program in good condition and win right away. It would be perfectly reasonable to expect a good hire to reach the playoffs in year 1 for example, given the talent Alabama had. I didn't check, but I'm guessing Miles, Riley and Day didn't have a lot of losses to unranked teams because... well they didn't have a lot of losses at all.

That aside, I specifically complained about Norvell then and now. I think he was a bad candidate. My point was the AD might have gotten the entire list upside down in terms of who he went after.

But let's discuss Lanning because he's an interesting case. I also think he compared quite well to Riley and Day considering he's a head coach with a record of 36-6 who coached under both Saban and Smart.

This means he knew the SEC, he knew Saban's defense, he'd have recruited and dealt with many of the players on the team, this was a natural fit. This would have been close to a Ryan Day type situation. And you might say well how do we know it's not like DuBose? Well, I reiterate Lanning has already shown he can win at the power conference level.

So we don't know what would have happened, but we do know that a better fit than Les Miles or Lincoln Riley would also be better than 9-5.

I'm not even saying he could have landed Lanning though, but it was a no brainer to try. If you go after Lanning and Meyer and you're left deciding between Dabo/Kiffin/DeBoer I can justify settling on DeBoer. I can't justify landing on Norvell though, not unless all those other guys blew you off at least, so if that's where you started then it means the whole process is suspect.

This is good stuff.

Also fascinating that Riley and Day's presence on staff (despite having zero HC experience) were regarded as factors for Stoops & Meyer to walk away when they did

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Anyway... TLDR is I don't see how you make a list and put Norvell and DeBoer at the top unless you're just lazy or don't know what you're doing.

I think the guys above them were mostly not realistic. Hopefully they at least reached out to Lanning and Sark. Urban Meyer basically isn't hirable at this point.

Only one that might have been realistic is Dabo.

 

[carder24]

DeBoer feels closer to Brian Kelly than Kirby Smart.

Scott Frost comes to mind, though nebraska is terrible comparison roster-wise

 

[AlexanderFan]

Well first, let's try to create a bit of a baseline. A lot of people when they talk about first year coaches tend to look at coaches who replace a fired coach. Well, if the previous coach got fired, then generally the program isn't in great shape.

So you want to look for a coach who left when there weren't any major problems, when the program was on a good footing. Three names come to mind.

Les Miles at LSU
Year 1: 11-2
Year 2: 11-2

Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma
Year 1: 12-2
Year 2: 12-2

Ryan Day at Ohio State
Year 1: 3-0
Year 2 13-1
Year 3: 7-1

So, we've established you don't even have to be that great a coach to walk into a good program in good condition and win right away. It would be perfectly reasonable to expect a good hire to reach the playoffs in year 1 for example, given the talent Alabama had. I didn't check, but I'm guessing Miles, Riley and Day didn't have a lot of losses to unranked teams because... well they didn't have a lot of losses at all.

That aside, I specifically complained about Norvell then and now. I think he was a bad candidate. My point was the AD might have gotten the entire list upside down in terms of who he went after.

But let's discuss Lanning because he's an interesting case. I also think he compared quite well to Riley and Day considering he's a head coach with a record of 36-6 who coached under both Saban and Smart.

This means he knew the SEC, he knew Saban's defense, he'd have recruited and dealt with many of the players on the team, this was a natural fit. This would have been close to a Ryan Day type situation. And you might say well how do we know it's not like DuBose? Well, I reiterate Lanning has already shown he can win at the power conference level.

So we don't know what would have happened, but we do know that a better fit than Les Miles or Lincoln Riley would also be better than 9-5.

I'm not even saying he could have landed Lanning though, but it was a no brainer to try. If you go after Lanning and Meyer and you're left deciding between Dabo/Kiffin/DeBoer I can justify settling on DeBoer. I can't justify landing on Norvell though, not unless all those other guys blew you off at least, so if that's where you started then it means the whole process is suspect.

Did any of those guys have 30+ players leave?

No doubt DeBoer is floundering, but you can’t compare what he walked into with any previous takeover of another program. None of those guys had to deal with NiL and the transfer portal, except Lincoln Riley, who used it to gut Oklahoma when he left.

DeBoer may not be able to inspire Southern players, but those other guys didn’t have to deal with vultures picking the carcass clean either.

 

[KrAzY3]

Did any of those guys have 30+ players leave?

No doubt DeBoer is floundering, but you can’t compare what he walked into with any previous takeover of another program. None of those guys had to deal with NiL and the transfer portal, except Lincoln Riley, who used it to gut Oklahoma when he left.

DeBoer may not be able to inspire Southern players, but those other guys didn’t have to deal with vultures picking the carcass clean either.

We can create more modern baselines as well. Heck Cignetti in the same season went 11-2. Lanning in his first year went 10-3 and there was indeed extensive roster turnover. Neither had more talent on the roster either, Alabama was still absolutely loaded.

Also, we're in year two now. The roster turnover thing is something DeBoer can use to his advantage, if he's not up to being able to rapidly adjust his roster than may be he's just not up to it at all. He just got whipped by a guy who has 50 new players.

I think most people were willing to give him a mulligan on what is obviously a bad showing in the previous year, but I showed two year results for a reason. This is his team now, he has his coaches, he's tweaked his roster, if it's still not working there's only one person to point the finger at.

He's already 0-1, one more loss and he's in Les Miles territory already, a third loss and he's matched Lanning's worst (and first) year. He pulls out of this tailspin I'll be as happy as anyone here, but if he misses the playoffs two years in a row and it's a massive failure.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

He's already 0-1, one more loss and he's in Les Miles territory already, a third loss and he's matched Lanning's worst (and first) year. Look, he pulls out of this tailspin I'll be as happy as anyone here.

If he pulls out of this, I'm guaranteeing he wins three national titles at Alabama. He's in a death spiral and quickly closing toward the ground. Pull out of this, right the ship and I'm not sure there's anything that could stop him.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Well, we are stuck with this dude the rest of the year. It will be interesting to watch this season because he, the rest of the coaches and the players are under the microscope the rest of the way. We are all fuming about this mess and if shenanigans continue through mid season then we all might be chunking brinks through his window.

 

[CoolBreeze]

If he pulls out of this, I'm guaranteeing he wins three national titles at Alabama. He's in a death spiral and quickly closing toward the ground. Pull out of this, right the ship and I'm not sure there's anything that could stop him.

Odds are against it but I am as hopeful as anyone he can turn this around.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Odds are against it but I am as hopeful as anyone he can turn this around.

If he weathers this crap storm, we at least have to say he's a tough son of a gun because I can only imagine the stress that has been dropped onto him this week. Everywhere you turn it's being suggested he needs to be fired, big boosters are starting to get upset, etc. His entire world is completely under attack. I wonder if Saban has reached out to him, or if he's just going to let him handle it himself?

 

[CoolBreeze]

If he weathers this crap storm, we at least have to say he's a tough son of a gun because I can only imagine the stress that has been dropped onto him this week. Everywhere you turn it's being suggested he needs to be fired, big boosters are starting to get upset, etc. His entire world is completely under attack. I wonder if Saban has reached out to him, or if he's just going to let him handle it himself?

You are absolutely correct. A part of me thinks he will survive and make the adjustments necessary. But he will need to start with his D coordinator. I'd give it a 95% chance that Nick has reached out to him.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Not only did we win 6 NCs but we made the NCG 9 times in 13 seasons.

From ‘09-23 we were in the Postseason as a Semi Finalist or NCG participant 11 times in 15 seasons

When you put the stats in black and white, it is truly the greatest college football dynasty ever and its not even close!!!

 

[AlexanderFan]

We can create more modern baselines as well. Heck Cignetti in the same season went 11-2. Lanning in his first year went 10-3 and there was indeed extensive roster turnover. Neither had more talent on the roster either, Alabama was still absolutely loaded.

Also, we're in year two now. The roster turnover thing is something DeBoer can use to his advantage, if he's not up to being able to rapidly adjust his roster than may be he's just not up to it at all. He just got whipped by a guy who has 50 new players.

I think most people were willing to give him a mulligan on what is obviously a bad showing in the previous year, but I showed two year results for a reason. This is his team now, he has his coaches, he's tweaked his roster, if it's still not working there's only one person to point the finger at.

He's already 0-1, one more loss and he's in Les Miles territory already, a third loss and he's matched Lanning's worst (and first) year. He pulls out of this tailspin I'll be as happy as anyone here, but if he misses the playoffs two years in a row and it's a massive failure.

Cignetti was ran off the field by any team with talent, Indiana making the playoff was another travesty.

Lanning does not count, Oregon can pay any amount to keep guys from leaving.

The 50 new players are all hungry and ready to win.

Whatever he’s doing is not working, no debating or denying that. Acting like you can compare what he’s having to do with what previous coaches have had to do is wrong. This is the first major football vacancy to be filled in the NIL era. Struggle was bound to happen.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

When we hired DeBoer it wasn't hard to figure we'd see a decline in the defense because he's not a defensive minded coach. He hired Wommack who he thought was good but I doubt DeBoer spends the time with the defense that Saban did. More likely he spends a lot of time with Grubb. Also on offense maybe DeBoer and Grubb have some good ideas but perhaps it takes a great QB to carry them out. Something we haven't had since he's been here. I'm in no way trying to be an apologist for DeBoer by suggesting we just don't have the right personnel. Saban could adjust to the personnel he had. He promised things would be different this season and they're not. Lack of effort, stupid penalties and players having friends over at 2:00 AM shouldn't happen no matter who's on the team. I'm all for looking in a different direction if we have 4 or more losses and miss the playoff again.

 

[Coach D]

Cignetti was ran off the field by any team with talent, Indiana making the playoff was another travesty.

Lanning does not count, Oregon can pay any amount to keep guys from leaving.

The 50 new players are all hungry and ready to win.

Whatever he’s doing is not working, no debating or denying that. Acting like you can compare what he’s having to do with what previous coaches have had to do is wrong. This is the first major football vacancy to be filled in the NIL era. Struggle was bound to happen.

Cignetti still beat teams last year though and play with effort and look organized. Just lack athletes. You can play the “yes but” game and argue anything. Alabama has history and NFL pipeline compared to Oregon.

Now I do think it’s too soon for all this anyway so don’t think comparisons are doable yet so I agree with that.

 

[Coach D]

When we hired DeBoer it wasn't hard to figure we'd see a decline in the defense because he's not a defensive minded coach. He hired Wommack who he thought was good but I doubt DeBoer spends the time with the defense that Saban did. More likely he spends a lot of time with Grubb. Also on offense maybe DeBoer and Grubb have some good ideas but perhaps it takes a great QB to carry them out. Something we haven't had since he's been here. I'm in no way trying to be an apologist for DeBoer by suggesting we just don't have the right personnel. Saban could adjust to the personnel he had. He promised things would be different this season and they're not. Lack of effort, stupid penalties and players having friends over at 2:00 AM shouldn't happen no matter who's on the team. I'm all for looking in a different direction if we have 4 or more losses and miss the playoff again.

Don’t know if he is like Kevin Sumlin but when I coached with him he couldn’t care less about the defense and even would take the best athletes from us to see if they would work on offense. Hope this is nothing close. That’s a program killer and drove staff away.

 

[KrAzY3]

Cignetti was ran off the field by any team with talent

...Struggle was bound to happen.

DeBoer was run off the field by a couple teams without talent.

Simply put, we disagree.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Cignetti still beat teams last year though and play with effort and look organized. Just lack athletes. You can play the “yes but” game and argue anything. Alabama has history and NFL pipeline compared to Oregon.

Now I do think it’s too soon for all this anyway so don’t think comparisons are doable yet so I agree with that.

I have no idea if Cignetti would have success elsewhere but we definitely can’t criticize their 2024 success.

Their only two losses were to the NCG participants and they beat Mich’s 1st string team while DeBose lost to their 2nd and 3rd stringers.

It’s fair game right now to make any comparisons.

We’ve been beat by NR teams who had no coaching turnover and some roster stability but this past week we got beat by a NR team with half the roster being composed of brand new guys.

How can Norvell get 50+ new players to play in sync with a purpose and KD can’t do it when a big off season theme was just how little roster turnover he had?

Should we have had more roster turnover?

Does he still not have what he needs or can he just not get it done in the Big Leagues?

 

[RammerJammer15]

DeBoer was run off the field by a couple teams without talent.

Simply put, we disagree.

We lost to two JV squads (Michigan and OU)

and two teams built by free agency (Vandy and FSU)

So far Tennessee was the best team we lost to and they got boat raced by Ohio State last year

 

[BamaFan6462]

I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see DeBoer turning this around, even if he got a third year. He had eight months to make improvements and what we saw on the field Saturday were the same exact problems we saw last year, if not even worse. There’s no way he could have not known last year was unacceptable to the fanbase, yet here we are. Even after the game, he has to know his next press conference will likely be the most important and most watched of his career, and instead of looking prepared and focused, he’s stammering and looks confused. If he can’t even be bothered to take a few minutes to gather himself and anticipate likely questions for a less than ten minute presser, he’s probably not going to do what needs to be done to have his assistants and players ready for the rest of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team look better Saturday, but then another drop off for Wisconsin because he just hasn’t given any indication he can do better up to this point.

 

[rtr90]

DeBoer feels closer to Brian Kelly than Kirby Smart.

I would kill to get Brian Kelly ,,, Deboer is a joke