Video: College Football Nerds pick: Vandy at Bama
- Thread starter Cruloc
- Start date
IDK man, I just can’t be confident about a 10 point win (or any win for that matter) with how bad our defense is against the run. They are going to try to control the clock, and we have to get off the field on 3rd down.
The only way we win by more than 1 score is if we get up on them early, force them to get out of their comfort zone and force a turnover.
If they can control things and we can't stop them a few times......we are in trouble.
If we can score early and not have any turnovers.....we win.
Vandy completes over 61% of their third downs. That's what we're going to have to eat into to stop the ball control. The best way to do that is to win first and second down. We can't give up six and seven yards on first and second down. We have to force them into third and longs to take the run game out of it.
What's interesting is their site has us losing 34-31
Its the fact the data is skewed because of their run O and our run D.
The title of this thread makes it sound like the Nerds pick Vandy to win.
The crazy thing is we held them to 3 yards per carry last year, but it simply didn’t matter. They converted on 3rd down no matter the distance.
Both offenses will probably be able to score. That would normally mean a high-scoring game, but I think certainly Vandy and maybe Alabama (in response) will prefer long slow drives/ball control over explosive plays. So it may be a relatively close game, unless we find the secret sauce to stop their qb.
Well, if you think about it, 3 yards per carry on first and second down means 3 and 4 on 3rd. Which is VERY manageable.
True but the narrative is “they ran all over us” when it really was death by a thousand cuts…
Oh, no doubt it was like death by a thousand paper cuts. That's EXACTLY what it felt like watching it. We've got to take that element out of the game.
I tried watching their show but instead found a piece of lent gently blowing on my desk more entertaining and turned it off...
Out of curiosity do you have any idea what their average yards needed on 3rd down is?
Definitely agree we need to win 1st and 2nd down hopefully by creating some negative plays.
No, I got that third down stat from College Gameday Live yesterday. Tom Luginbil was talking about how accurate Pavia is and how deadly they were on third downs.
I would have thought their model would have given us a bigger win, will be interesting to see if this moves between now and late November.
Vanderbilt won the time of possession battle 42 to 18. That's a lot of time to make cuts. Even with that, the total yards were about even.
The only reason they beat Alabama was because Alabama made a lot of mistakes. Notably, the coaches sending two players out with the same number, which was a punt but became a Vanderbilt TD instead (difference in the game). Then of course there are the two turnovers Alabama had to Vanderbilt's zero. The more penalties, the 12 Vanderbilt third down conversions to Alabama's 3. That loss was self-inflicted really, but Vanderbilt kept the ball long enough to keep making those small cuts while Alabama couldn''t get enough big swings in.
If Alabama makes less mistakes than Vanderbilt next game, it's not even close. That's a big if though.
The self inflicted mistakes DEFINITELY played a role in the loss. If you just removed two of those mistakes, we win, heck, possibly just ONE!
It also has Texas and Mizzou beating us you know. And extremely close against LSU and State.
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