Could this be a way to fix ALL the current problems with the CFP?

[uafan4life]

As a general rule, I'm not a fan of the expanded playoff. However, if we're going to be absurd about it, why not be absurd in the most logical manner?

Right now - admittedly early - what are the biggest problems with the CFP?
1. Conference inequality - especially factoring in the forced inclusion of lesser conferences.
2. The potential for late-season losses, potentially including in Conference Championship games, to over-penalize a team.
3. Possibly creating an unintended disadvantage for higher-seeded teams with a significantly longer layoff than their opponent. We'll see whether that trend holds true or reverses course this year.
4. Inequitable seeding creates bad matchups and unnecessary blowout games.
5. An under-utilization of one of the best things about college football: the on-campus experience.

Assuming all five of these CFP problems remain after this season, what would be the most logical and fair way to address all of them? Is it possible that the best answer could be yet another expansion of the playoff, along with MORE automatic qualifiers?

Say it ain't so!!!

Well, before we either say it is or isn't, let's at least consider the possibility...

Right now, there are five automatic bids available to the five highest-ranked conference champions. There are currently 10 FBS football conferences (Including the PAC-2). What if we upped the number of automatic bids to 8 - yes, 8 - while upping the total number of participants to 20?

Here's how it could possibly work, with eight automatic slots and 12 at-large slots...

The CFP committee's final ranking would include their Top 25 along with an additional seeding of every FBS conference champion not ranked in the Top 25. The 8 highest-ranked champions receive automatic bids. The 12 highest-ranked teams that aren't conference champions receive at-large bids. These 20 teams are then seeded, from one to 20, based on their CFP ranking.

One week after Championship weekend, there are four games - each hosted by the higher-seeded team:
- #13 vs #20
- #14 vs #19
- #15 vs #18
- #16 vs #17

One week after that, there are eight games - each hosted by the higher-seeded team:
- #1 vs #16/17
- #2 vs #15/18
- #3 vs #14/19
- #4 vs #13/20
- #5 vs #12
- #6 vs #11
- #7 vs # 10
- #8 vs #9

After this, it's fairly similar to what we have now. One to two weeks later - depending on the calendar - we have the four quarterfinal games on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, hosted by rotating bowl sites. A week or so after that, the semifinal games will be hosted by other rotating bowl sites. Another week or so later, the National Championship Game will be held at its location for that season.

How does this address the CFP's biggest, current problems?
- Conference Inequality: 8 different conferences are now represented.
- Over-penalization: With 12 at-large spots, the chances of a quality team falling one spot too far to be included are minimized.
- Unequal layoffs: No team has more than a two-week layoff.
- Inequitable seeding: The bottom eight are now effectively playing play-in games, which should be much more competitive than the first round games under the current format. While there are still likely to be a few blowouts in the second round, these will now be on-campus games that are effectively an equitable reward for the highest-ranked teams.
- On-Campus Experience: Under this format, 12 different campuses would host a playoff game each year!

Now, let's take a look at how this format would have worked out this season...

Round One (December 13th, 2025):
- Kennesaw State @ Texas
- Boise State @ Vanderbilt
- Duke @ Utah
- James Madison @ Tulane

Round Two (December 20th, 2025):
- JMU/Tulane @ Indiana
- Duke/Utah @ Ohio State
- BSU/Vandy @ Georgia
- KSU/Texas @ Texas Tech
- BYU @ Oregon
- Notre Dame @ Ole Miss
- Miami @ Texas A&M
- Alabama @ Oklahoma

Round Three (December 31, 2025 & January 1, 2026):
[Assuming known results and chalk for the rest.]
- Alabama vs Indiana @ Rose Bowl
- Miami vs Ohio State @ Cotton Bowl
- Ole Miss vs Georgia @ Sugar Bowl
- Oregon vs Texas Tech @ Orange Bowl

Semifinals (January 8 & 9, 2026):
- Fiesta Bowl
- Peach Bowl

National Championship Game (January 19th, 2025):
- Miami Gardens, FL

 

[uafan4life]

The end result is likely to be the same as the current format; I'd wager around nine out of 10 Semifinals being exactly the same under the two formats.

However, there are a few, key, interesting differences:

Round One:
- We would likely have three competitive games, instead of only two this year.
- Texas, Vandy, Utah, and Tulane would all get to host an on-campus playoff game!
- Four conference champions get the shot to play their way in by beating a quality team that just missed the playoff under teh current format.

Round Two:
- Indiana gets a lower-ranked opponent, at-home, for their first game instead of Alabama (coming off a win) on a nuetral site after a long layoff.
- The same goes for Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech. The top four teams get rewarded with what is likely a tune-up game - yet still a team that earned a spot with a win - and an extra home game for the fans!
- Notre Dame would be a much more competitive matchup for Ole Miss.
- BYU would likely be a much more competitive matchup for Oregon.

Round Three:
- Every team will have played at least one playoff game, with no more than a two-week layoff.

Semifinals & NCG:
- These would almost always end up the same under either format, so the big (championship) picture doesn't change.

The overall benefits - or at least my guess - this season:
- Eight different conferences (plus ND) would be represented in the CFP.
- 19 total playoff games, with only one regular-season rematch likely.
- No likely blowouts in Bowl-hosted CFP games.
- The maximum number of games any team would likely play would not be greater than the current format.
- 12 On-Campus Playoff Games!
- Did I mention 12 On-Campus Playoff Games?

 

[uafan4life]

Additionally, this format could - potentially - allow the committee to reduce some of the drama and conspiracy theories around the CFP Committee's rankings...

Let's say, for example, that - unlike what they actually did this year - they never had Alabama jump Notre Dame before Championship Weekend. How would that have looked under this format?

The Rankings:
1 Indiana
2 Ohio State
3 Georgia
4 Texas Tech
5 Oregon
6 Ole Miss
7 Texas A&M
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 Alabama
11 Miami
12 BYU
13 Texas
14 Vanderbilt
15 Utah
16 Tulane
17 James Madison
18 Duke
19 Boise State
20 Kennesaw State

Now, the playoffs would have looked like this, under this format:

Round One (December 13th, 2025):
- Kennesaw State @ Texas
- Boise State @ Vanderbilt
- Duke @ Utah
- James Madison @ Tulane

Round Two (December 20th, 2025):
- JMU/Tulane @ Indiana
- Duke/Utah @ Ohio State
- BSU/Vandy @ Georgia
- KSU/Texas @ Texas Tech
- BYU @ Oregon
- Miami @ Ole Miss
- Alabama @ Texas A&M
- Notre Dame @ Oklahoma

Round Three (December 31, 2025 & January 1, 2026):
[Just using my imagination here.]
- Oklahoma vs Indiana @ Rose Bowl
- Alabama vs Ohio State @ Cotton Bowl
- Ole Miss vs Georgia @ Sugar Bowl
- Oregon vs Texas Tech @ Orange Bowl

Semifinals (January 8 & 9, 2026):
- Alabama vs Georgia @ Fiesta Bowl
- Oklahoma vs Texas Tech @ Peach Bowl

National Championship Game (January 19th, 2025):
- Alabama OVER Texas Tech @ Miami Gardens, FL

Personally, I think this would be an even more interesting CFP storyline...

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

Just go to 128, plus however many play-in games are necessary to get to 128. From there it’s just 7 rounds. What could go wrong?

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

Those first 8 teams don’t belong. Just get rid os the committee and use the old computer poll for the tp 12. I know, it’s going to expand.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

The only current problem as I see it is the inclusion of the G5 teams. I wouldn't want to add two more. Texas would be perhaps as much as a 30 point favorite over Kennesaw State while Vandy would be about a 17 point favorite over Boise State, so we don't need more mismatches. They need to find a way to satisfy the G5 teams without allowing them to compete in the main playoff.

 

[Cruloc]

I'm over including the G5 teams. Let them do their own playoff and have their own national title game. No one wants to watch that mess with James Madison / Tulane / Kennesaw / etc..... They don't play the same game. Theirs is a LESSER game.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I'm with @Isaiah 63:1 Just make it a 128-team playoff. Takes 7 games. Reduce the regular season to 10 games and eliminate CCGs. Like in European soccer, relegate the teams ranking worse than #128 to G5.

Now you have a season at a max of 17 games for the final two teams. That's the same as it is now with 12 regular season games, a CCG and a max of 4 playoff games.

Offset the lost regular season and CCG money with the increased revenue from the playoff.

Everybody gets a trophy, coaches get bonuses for making the playoffs, nobody gets triggered, everybody gets a chance, nobody gets their widdle feewings hurt, and money flows.

Problem solved.

Yeah, it's absurd. It's no more absurd than a lot of other stuff I've seen. That's why I couldn't decide whether to use blue font.

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

Just get it over and and have a 25 team playoff under the BCS formula and give the top team a buy. Use all of the bowls as a playoff game. No G5 teams.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Good points all. How many times have we solved this problem here on Tidefans?

 

[uafan4life]

Those first 8 teams don’t belong. Just get rid os the committee and use the old computer poll for the tp 12. I know, it’s going to expand.

The only current problem as I see it is the inclusion of the G5 teams. I wouldn't want to add two more. Texas would be perhaps as much as a 30 point favorite over Kennesaw State while Vandy would be about a 17 point favorite over Boise State, so we don't need more mismatches. They need to find a way to satisfy the G5 teams without allowing them to compete in the main playoff.

I'm over including the G5 teams. Let them do their own playoff and have their own national title game. No one wants to watch that mess with James Madison / Tulane / Kennesaw / etc..... They don't play the same game. Theirs is a LESSER game.

Oh, I agree. For the game, I think the G5 having their own playoff would be ideal.

I also know it's not going to happen.

And there will never be a way to prevent blowouts. There were blowouts under the BCS and 4-team CFP. Blowouts will always happen.

Perhaps, though, what doesn't have to happen - even with forced inclusion - is the forcing of inequitably bad matchups due to limited seeding AND forced inclusion.

 

[GrayTide]

I'm over including the G5 teams. Let them do their own playoff and have their own national title game. No one wants to watch that mess with James Madison / Tulane / Kennesaw / etc..... They don't play the same game. Theirs is a LESSER game.

This is the answer. The 4 power conferences plus ND is roughly 66-68 teams. Get the 12 teams from these 66 teams, no automatic qualifiers. The Group of 5 has a separate division and National Champion.

 

[CB4]

I’m more along the lines of an 11 game regular season (maybe even 10) starting the end of August. Play the current 9 conference schedule. One OOC must be P5. Eliminate the CCG. Regular season ends the weekend before Thanksgiving. Sixteen team playoff with no AQ’s. Get rid of the committee and use computer selection similar to BCS to rank seeds 1-16. No byes. First round the weekend of Thanksgiving. Second round two weeks later. Semis in New Year’s Day bowl. Finals two weeks after that.