Question: Honest Question.. If LSU is Ranked 1 and Bama is ranked 2... Why is Bama a 5 pt FAVE?

Big Sky Bama

BamaNation Citizen
Aug 8, 2009
65
0
0
Southwest Montana
Is this a "betting" thing? Or, do oddsmakers legitimately place Bama as a favorite? If Alabama is truly the fave... why the heck are they ranked 2? (I know..I'd rather be #2 right now anyway) On a related note.. seems like I heard that 75% of the money bet is being bet on LSU..

Disclaimer: I do not bet on games, nor do I condone or condemn bettors.. The last bet I placed was $5 on black in Vegas in 1999. I am clearly not a hi roller, nor a roller at all for that matter. Ok.. gotta go paint. :D
 

bamanut_aj

Hall of Fame
Jul 31, 2000
20,058
83
167
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Spring Hill, TN
2-3 points are for home field advantage. I would guess the remaining points are Vegas controlling the betting lines until they're ready to move the spread either way, based on the bets they're getting.

I surely hope someone can explain it better than I can!!
 

SavannahDare

Hall of Fame
Jul 23, 2004
15,166
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Gulf Breeze, Florida
I think it also speaks to the shortcomings of the computers' contribution to the BCS rankings. The computers tend to weight things differently than the human voters who allow intangibles to influence their vote. The odds makers tend to like the humans over the computers. Really though, a 5 point spread in a game like this is basically Vegas' version of shrugging their shoulders and saying "we can't figure it out either."
 

Florida Tom

All-American
Aug 15, 2011
4,449
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Tampa, FL
Kinda like listening to that loud mouth Brian Jones on CBS....Really CBS this is the Best you can come up with?? I don't bet or paly lotto or gamble at all not for moral reasons, I work to hard for my money to blow it like that. I wish we were a 10 point underdog. We seem to do very well with that.
 

bamanut_aj

Hall of Fame
Jul 31, 2000
20,058
83
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Spring Hill, TN
Kinda like listening to that loud mouth Brian Jones on CBS....Really CBS this is the Best you can come up with?? I don't bet or paly lotto or gamble at all not for moral reasons, I work to hard for my money to blow it like that. I wish we were a 10 point underdog. We seem to do very well with that.
brother, ain't that the truth?? If I've got $100 burning a hole in my pocket and I can't think of anything else to do with it, being the quasi-smart guy that I am I'll hand it over to the warden and let her go spend it.
 

Bear Disciple

1st Team
Oct 27, 2009
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Tuscaloosa, AL
In a game the oddsmakers believe is truly even, the line will open at 3 or 3.5 favorite for the home team. On most books I saw last week this was the case, the line moved up to 4.5 and 5 depending on the book, due to some bets on Alabama early and thoughts that we may have a slight(about .5 or 1 pt) edge. The line has basically hovered where it is now due to most bettors being like everyone in the media, no consensus on a winner, practically 50/50 in opinion.

Also as far as the poll question, I do believe they should be #1. I do not think they are better, but beating Oregon at a neutral site and beating WVU, however ugly and basically unimpressive it seems now, at the time was touted as a tough road game. They've played a more difficult schedule and have fared as well as us, which is why they have the #1 spot..... for now!
 

tidefanbeezer

All-American
Sep 25, 2006
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2-3 points are for home field advantage. I would guess the remaining points are Vegas controlling the betting lines until they're ready to move the spread either way, based on the bets they're getting.

I surely hope someone can explain it better than I can!!
That's pretty much it.
 

Black Warrior

Suspended
Mar 30, 2010
2,236
2
0
"If LSU is Ranked 1 and Bama is ranked 2... Why is Bama a 5 pt Fave"
Because gamblers in Vegas are smarter than the folks that vote in the polls. The Vegas boys are homers only for the $$$$.
 

IH8Orange

Hall of Fame
Aug 14, 2000
7,017
31
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Trussville, AL, USA
Oregon (#8, 7-1) was the national runner-up last year, so LSU's victory over them appears to be a quality win.

After the Northwestern State snoozer, LSU faced #25 Mississippi State which had just lost to an unranked *U team and ravaged them with four field goals and a fourth quarter TD. This moved them past Alabama, who beat the #23 Penn State team the week before and shutout a pathetic North Texas team, into the #2 spot in the AP poll.

West Virginia beat those powerhouses Marshall and Norfolk State and moved up from #24 to #18, then they barely beat a badly-dressed Maryland team that beat a short-handed Miami team that was thought to be on its way "back" from oblivion and this moved WVU up to #16 when LSU faced them. LSU beat them handily by a 26 point margin, only giving up 533 yards on 87 plays. It was this super-impressive victory over that Big East juggernaut that propelled LSU to #1 in the AP poll.

Of course, 51st ranked Syracuse (5-3) also beat WVU by 26 points, only giving up 408 yards on 68 plays, but we're talking about #1 LSU here and not some middle-of-the-road Big East team.

So then #3 Alabama pounds undefeated and #12 Florida 38-10 at The Swamp, but that's not impressive enough to move Alabama over #1 LSU, who slaughtered the UK Wildcats, who reside in last place in the SEC East. When LSU beats a Florida team that's down to its third-string QB by about the same margin as Bama, it's seen as PROOF that LSU is really the top team. Of course, the win over Florida does move us up to #2, past Oklahoma.

So, here's how it goes:

When #4 LSU beats #3 Oregon (then 0-0, now 6-1, BCS #8), they move up to #3 behind Alabama.
When #2 Bama beats #23 Penn State (then 1-0, now 8-1, BCS #16), they do not pass #1 Oklahoma.
When #3 LSU beats #25 Mississippi State (then 1-1, now 4-4, BCS unranked), they pass #2 Alabama.
When #2 LSU beats #16 West Virginia (then 3-0, now 6-2, BCS #24), they pass #1 Oklahoma.
When #3 Bama beats #14 Arkansas (then 3-0, now 7-1, BCS #7), then pass #1 Oklahoma, but do not pass #2 LSU.
When #2 Bama beats #12 Florida (then 4-0, now 4-4, BCS unranked), they do not pass #1 LSU.

LSU has victories over teams that are ranked #8 and #24 currently in the BCS standings. That's an average ranking of 16 for their two BCS ranked opponents. The winning margin was an average of 19.5 ppg.

Bama has victories over the teams that are ranked #7 and #16 currently in the BCS standings. That's an average ranking of 11.5 for their two BCS ranked opponents. The winning margin was an average of 20 ppg.

I can't figure out how anyone can say that LSU has more impressive victories than Alabama. The numbers just don't lie. It seems like every impressive victory for LSU was impetus to move them up while equally impressive victories for Alabama didn't produce the same type of excitement to the voters.

Voters have nothing invested other than their reputations, and for most of them that's not worth spit.

Bettors are more invested, they're more informed, and they're going to be proven to be more accurate. The voters will just change their votes and then stand around and boast about how they REALLY knew that Bama was the better team all along.
 

BigAl5833

All-American
Oct 15, 2005
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Muscle Shoals, AL
Vegas does not care about what the polls say or who actually wins the game (for the most part)

Vegas wants the money as even as possible on both sides so that no matter who wins they turn a nice profit just from the juice. The Vegas odd makers do not set the line based on who they think will win. Rather they set the line on who they believe the betting public will think will win.
 
Oregon (#8, 7-1) was the national runner-up last year, so LSU's victory over them appears to be a quality win.

After the Northwestern State snoozer, LSU faced #25 Mississippi State which had just lost to an unranked *U team and ravaged them with four field goals and a fourth quarter TD. This moved them past Alabama, who beat the #23 Penn State team the week before and shutout a pathetic North Texas team, into the #2 spot in the AP poll.

West Virginia beat those powerhouses Marshall and Norfolk State and moved up from #24 to #18, then they barely beat a badly-dressed Maryland team that beat a short-handed Miami team that was thought to be on its way "back" from oblivion and this moved WVU up to #16 when LSU faced them. LSU beat them handily by a 26 point margin, only giving up 533 yards on 87 plays. It was this super-impressive victory over that Big East juggernaut that propelled LSU to #1 in the AP poll.

Of course, 51st ranked Syracuse (5-3) also beat WVU by 26 points, only giving up 408 yards on 68 plays, but we're talking about #1 LSU here and not some middle-of-the-road Big East team.

So then #3 Alabama pounds undefeated and #12 Florida 38-10 at The Swamp, but that's not impressive enough to move Alabama over #1 LSU, who slaughtered the UK Wildcats, who reside in last place in the SEC East. When LSU beats a Florida team that's down to its third-string QB by about the same margin as Bama, it's seen as PROOF that LSU is really the top team. Of course, the win over Florida does move us up to #2, past Oklahoma.

So, here's how it goes:

When #4 LSU beats #3 Oregon (then 0-0, now 6-1, BCS #8), they move up to #3 behind Alabama.
When #2 Bama beats #23 Penn State (then 1-0, now 8-1, BCS #16), they do not pass #1 Oklahoma.
When #3 LSU beats #25 Mississippi State (then 1-1, now 4-4, BCS unranked), they pass #2 Alabama.
When #2 LSU beats #16 West Virginia (then 3-0, now 6-2, BCS #24), they pass #1 Oklahoma.
When #3 Bama beats #14 Arkansas (then 3-0, now 7-1, BCS #7), then pass #1 Oklahoma, but do not pass #2 LSU.
When #2 Bama beats #12 Florida (then 4-0, now 4-4, BCS unranked), they do not pass #1 LSU.

LSU has victories over teams that are ranked #8 and #24 currently in the BCS standings. That's an average ranking of 16 for their two BCS ranked opponents. The winning margin was an average of 19.5 ppg.

Bama has victories over the teams that are ranked #7 and #16 currently in the BCS standings. That's an average ranking of 11.5 for their two BCS ranked opponents. The winning margin was an average of 20 ppg.

I can't figure out how anyone can say that LSU has more impressive victories than Alabama. The numbers just don't lie. It seems like every impressive victory for LSU was impetus to move them up while equally impressive victories for Alabama didn't produce the same type of excitement to the voters.

Voters have nothing invested other than their reputations, and for most of them that's not worth spit.

Bettors are more invested, they're more informed, and they're going to be proven to be more accurate. The voters will just change their votes and then stand around and boast about how they REALLY knew that Bama was the better team all along.
Wow, when you put it like that... Roll Tide!
 

Bama Reb

Suspended
Nov 2, 2005
14,445
0
0
On the lake and in the woods, AL
you know what? simple as it sounds, its freakin' true. because we're Bama.
You're exactly right. It's always been fashionable, especially in the press, to hate on Bama. It's been that way for as long as I remember, and likely will be long after I'm gone. The only way we can prove our worth is to beat our every opponent on the field, in the trenches.
So here's the deal. Everyone puts us #2 going into the game against #1 LSU. Once we dispense of them, there are no more excuses. Nothing to hide behind and nothing else to put in print. If you want to be the best you have to beat the best and that's exactly what this Tide team will do tomorrow night. When the game is over and the scoreboard is alit for all to see, there will be no doubts in anyone's mind. There will be excuses aplenty, but only one question left to be answered: Will there be enough crow to go around? :biggrin:
:biga:
 

CapstoneTider

Suspended
Dec 6, 2000
7,453
6
0
Didn't read all the treads but agree it has to do with 1. Beating Oregan and having a stronger schedule on paper 2. Home field advantage.

These two teams are looked at as co #2's.

I do believe I detected a little bias towards Bama and Nick Saban. It was ridiculous that both Oklahoma and LSU were getting 80% of the 1st place votes while Bama was stream rolling and head the most balanced team of them all. Having a journalist pick Boise over both Bama and LSU is even more of a head scratcher.
 

engl6914

Suspended
Oct 24, 2011
39
0
0
Natchez, Miss.
Vegas does not care about what the polls say or who actually wins the game (for the most part)

Vegas wants the money as even as possible on both sides so that no matter who wins they turn a nice profit just from the juice. The Vegas odd makers do not set the line based on who they think will win. Rather they set the line on who they believe the betting public will think will win.

This is true. My dad used to book bets long ago and always told me the point spread has little to do with who the oddsmakers think will win. He pointed out you want half the money on one team and half on the other so you can use the money of the losers to pay the winners and keep your 10%. Too much money bet on the winning team means not enough to pay them and having to go the bank to get a loan and pay the winners. That's why the odds change after first posting; too much money is being bet one way, and that needs to change.

In the case of this game whichever team is getting 5 points you bet on them, whether it's Alabama or LSU (in this case, LSU) I suspect that Alabama has the most storied program nationally and more bettors will bet on the Tide because of it. That's the only reason I can think of for such an astonishingly large spread in a game like this. The easy bet is on LSU, taking the points.
 

We_are_Bama

Suspended
Dec 11, 2008
3,816
1,007
187
In the 2008 SEC Title Game, we were undefeated and #1 and Florida had one loss and was #2 and they were about a 5 or 6 point favorite. Last year in the Iron Bowl, we had two losses and were ranked #10 and *U was undefeated and ranked #1 and yet we were favored by 1.5, I guess because of home field advantage. In short, who really knows how any of this is determined? :conf2:
 
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